Smit Patel

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@waitmaya 40

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@abhiandniyu I agree though that owners should know in detail what the dogs breed are and what they are getting into before having more stronger and aggressive dogs which they cannot handle or train

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@abhiandniyu I don’t think its the problem of breed at all. The owners need to train and make them used to it accordingly to guests based on the breed. We have few pitbulls in neighbourhood and they are totally normal and friendly.

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@chiamakaafc Juventus

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@amitisinvesting Yessssss

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@DurovPD 2-1

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@MrBeast 524677321

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

Today, India takes a defining step in its civil nuclear journey, advancing the second stage of its nuclear programme.

The indigenously designed and built Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality.

This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel than it consumes, reflects the depth of our scientific capability and the strength of our engineering enterprise. It is a decisive step towards harnessing our vast thorium reserves in the third stage of the programme.

A proud moment for India. Congratulations to our scientists and engineers.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Indeed, it was *because* I was not from the aerospace industry that SpaceX made such radical breakthroughs. Same for Tesla.

Those in the industry would have if they could have.

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

Our Q4/FY’25 results are in. Thanks to our partners & employees, it was a tremendous quarter, exceeding $400B in annual revenue for the first time. Our full AI stack is fueling our progress, and Gemini 3 adoption has been faster than any other model in our history.

We’re really well positioned and excited going into 2026. Much more to come!

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@EXCAVO Yesss

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@Luck_7773 Shaun Marsh

[Arny Trezzi @arny_trezzi]

" $PLTR WILL COLLAPSE IN 2 YEARS."

Legendary investor @michaeljburry just dropped a new interview with a legendary level of bullshit.

Let's bury him:

1.⁠ ⁠"It's the AI consulting thing."

Burry can't understand that a consulting business doesn't have an 80% gross margin at ~50% FCF margin, growing +60% while having fixed headcount.

Legendarily embarrassing.

2.⁠ ⁠"Palantir doesn't produce a product for AI. It was a lucky AI cover."

Seems Burry spent more time writing tweets on Palantir than actually studying it.

Palantir was doing AI before it was called "AI". The proof is in the old demos and the fact that it was perfectly positioned as the "AI grid" application for deploying n-models to deliver business value.

If Palantir's AI wasn't real:
•⁠ ⁠its business would have stalled like $AI
•⁠ ⁠its metrics would not have exploded
•⁠ ⁠all the clients presenting at AIPCon are liars
•⁠ ⁠USA Gov is deploying a massive scam at scale

3.⁠ ⁠"SBC wastes all the Income".

SBC is expensed as a cost in the Income Statement, but doesn't generate a cash outflow from the company.

Palantir GAAP metrics, so AFTER the SBC impact:

33% Operating Profit Margin
40% Net Income Margin (thanks to Net Interest)

= even if Palantir paid all the SBC in cash, it would still have above elite margins.

4.⁠ ⁠"Wall Street takes EPS per share and adds back SBC."

EBIT Adj is the best metric to assess the strength of the business because it's a proxy of the operating FCF.

EBIT Adj. = GAAP EBIT + SBC

NB: since the timing of customers' invoices can vary, EBIT adj. is a smoother and more representative measure of the value generated in the quarter.

5.⁠ ⁠"GAAP understates the real cost of SBC."

For each employee, SBC expenses from RSUs are recorded at the grant-date price of the shares and remain constant over the vesting period, which is ~4 years.

This means that if PLTR stock rises, the company will continue to record the initial related SBC cost for the vesting period. Still, the shares provided to the employee at the end of the 4 years are actually more valuable than the expenses recorded.

GAAP indeed understates the effective $ amount employees can receive once the shares vest, if the stock rises significantly after the grant date.

That's the bet employees take.
That's the bet investors take.

SBC negatively affects shareholders, as their % ownership of the company is reduced due to the issuance of additional shares, but the accounting value matters relatively little.

What truly matters to shareholders is the change in the number of shares (=dilution), which affects the per-share results and is a serious problem if the company doesn't grow.

Palantir:
+60% YoY Revenue
+90% YoY EBIT adj
+200% YoY EPS
+4.6% Diluted Num. of shares

As long as the business grows much more than the dilution, there is no issue.

I am a happy diluted shareholder :)

6.⁠ ⁠"Look how much the company pays in buyback to offset that level dilution."

Buybacks are stupid only if done at a stupid price.

Since Palantir began its buyback, the stock has risen more than 6x.

NB in Q3 PLTR bought back $20mn vs $600mn EBIT adj.

7.⁠ ⁠“Billionaires/Revenue ratio bigger than 1 has never been seen”.

Palantir has 5 billionaires from owning the stock vs $4b Revenue generated.

While surely that’s an anomaly, it doesn’t mean anything.

To get to $1bn you need to build a business for 20y, not rolling the portfolio every quarter or selling a newsletter.

@ssankar, Palantir's CTO, for instance, has built value in the company as the #13 employee since 2006.

Meanwhile, Burry called 20 of the past 2 recessions.
That's unprecedented.

In 5 minutes, Burry dropped 7 bad takes.
That's unprecedented.

Last week, I was told that Burry has literally coordinated a short attack involving institutional players in the trade.

While I can't verify the accuracy of this claim, I can verify that Burry looks more desperate than ever to preserve the little reputation left.

Yours,
@arny_trezzi

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@narendramodi Indian authorities are working on updates, including a new GDP series expected in February 2026, which could lead to an improved rating in future assessments.

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

New York is the financial capital of the world.

Why? Thanks to the New York Stock Exchange.

But the NYSE’s evolution actually mirrors the future of global markets.

Here’s the full 200+ year history of the NYSE & what to expect in the future:

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

The 4-year cycle has provided the #Bitcoin top!

It's probably the most common question and debate. Where are we in the cycle? Did Bitcoin just see its peak of this cycle?

Ultimately, it could be. Definitely. The rally to $125K happened just days before the government shutdown, and, since then, markets have been going down substantially.

However, this cycle has been proven to act differently. The ETF has added $60B in fresh liquidity into the Bitcoin markets, through which a new all-time high was created prior to the halving.

In that sense, many historical (time-based) monthly results have been different this cycle compared to the previous cycles.

The primary question is then; Does it make sense to provide a high prediction on the outcome of this cycle to be a standard 4-year cycle, when the metrics are changing?

I don't think it does.

The latter part, in this case, the demand, is constantly evolving, and the parties involved in the markets are constantly changing, which is the beauty of maturing of an underlying asset.

On the other hand, the supply is also evolving due to the Bitcoin halvings. The inflationary yearly rate is reducing, which means that ~150K Bitcoin are coming on markets yearly, decreasing over time.

A significant portion of this will be sold to pay expenses by miners, but a portion will be held.

On the other hand, 60K Bitcoin has been bought in the past 18 months in the Bitcoin ETF, which is a significant constant demand through institutions, which changes the supply/demand framework.

Cornering yourself by thinking that the 4-year cycle has ended and has provided a peak based on simply and only, supply/demand based on the halvings + time-related assumptions is short-sighted and wouldn't work.

We're on the crossroads of market changes, maturing of an asset like Bitcoin and therefore, different market dynamics.

Until now, this correction has been comparable to any other bull market correction for Bitcoin.

Until now, the macroeconomic climate has been absolutely terrible for risk-on assets.

Until now, Bitcoin remains to be a risk-on asset.

To be fair, if none of the macroeconomic metrics are the same as in 2021, it's an absolutely phenomenal signal that Bitcoin moves around $100K at this point in time.

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

Important: 13Fs are delayed and show long positions only—puts can be part of hedges/spreads and don’t prove a net short.

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

SEC check on Burry’s $NVDA & $PLTR puts:

Q1’25 13F (as of 3/31): Scion disclosed long $NVDA puts on 9k contracts, notional $97.54m—plus puts on BABA/BIDU/JD/PDD/TRIP and a long EL stake.

Q3’25 13F (as of 9/30): Scion added $PLTR puts on 50k contracts and $NVDA puts on 1m sh

[Smit Patel @PatelX234]

@amitisinvesting WOW !!!!!🤯

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY ISSUES STATEMENT ON RARE EARTH CONTROLS AND U.S. TRADE WAR

- Rare earth export controls are a "legitimate measure" to protect Chinese interests, citing geopolitical instability
- Export controls are "not a ban", global civilian supply chains expected to have limited impact
- Rare earth export licenses will be approved for appropriate civilian use, but restricted for military use
- U.S. undermined trade talks in Madrid by unfairly imposing additional measures on China after the talks concluded
- 100% U.S. tariffs in retaliation to export controls is a "double standard"
- Threatening China with high tariffs at every turn is not the way to negotiate with China
- China imposed port fees on U.S. ships in retaliation to U.S. imposing port fees on Chinese ships first
- We don't want to fight a trade war, but we are not afraid to fight one
- We urge U.S. side to return to correct erroneous actions, engage in dialogue, and cease aggressive trade restrictions