Jake Baron

Husband; Dad; Lawyer; Ski Freak; Golf god; Platform Tennis Master

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@FoxNews Is this Tommy Boy's sister?

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@JoeSquawk what is a fair share? They never answer.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@Deepvue Can't wait. This product is like the early iPhone that seemed to add new features and improvements every week for the first several years.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@jonnajarian Thank you

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@dennisc230 @ImBreckWorsham Amen. $40T in debt tells us that they hate us.

[Michael S. Kim @Mike_kim714]

500k followers giveaway pt 1!

My golf bag plus some @Titleist goodies

Comment, like, repost to enter. Must be a follower

Clubs not included unfortunately*
Still need those for my day job

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@RichardMoglen @Deepvue Fidelity

[John Roberts @johnrobertsFox]

Here’s a short list (1/2)

•November 1979: Iranian students, backed by the regime, seized  the U.S. Embassy in Tehran — taking 66 Americans hostage in a 444-day standoff .
•April 1983: The Islamic Jihad, an Iran-backed terrorist group, carried out  a suicide car bombing at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, killing 17 Americans.
•October 1983: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists killed  241 U.S. military personnel — including 220 U.S. Marines and 21 other service personnel — in a truck bombing at a Marine compound in Beirut.
•March 1984: Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terrorists kidnapped  CIA station chief William Buckley on his way to work in Beirut, ultimately killing him the following year.
•September 1984: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists killed  23 innocent people — including  two American service members — in a car bomb attack at the U.S. Embassy annex in Beirut.
•December 1984: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists hijacked  Kuwait Airways Flight 221 en route to Pakistan, diverting it to Tehran — where they brutally tortured and killed  two American officials.
•June 1985: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists hijacked  TWA Flight 847 on its way from Athens to Rome, torturing a U.S. Navy diver before shooting him point blank in the head and tossing his body onto the Beirut airport tarmac.
•July 1989: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists killed  U.S. Marine Col. William Higgins after kidnapping him the previous year while serving with a United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon.
•April 1995: Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terrorists killed  eight people — including one American citizen — in a car bomb attack in the Gaza Strip.
•August 1995: An Iran-backed Hamas suicide bomber blew up  a bus in Jerusalem, killing an American and three other passengers, and wounding more than 100 others.
•February 1996: An Iran-backed Hamas suicide bomber blew up  another bus in Jerusalem, killing three Americans and wounding three other Americans.
•March 1996: A suicide bomber linked to the Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist groups killed  20 people — including two Americans — in a suicide bombing at a Tel Aviv shopping center.
•May 1996: Iran-backed terrorists killed an American-Israeli dual citizen and wounded another American citizen in the West Bank.
•June 1996: Iran-backed Hezbollah Al-Hijaz terrorists killed  19 U.S. Airmen and wounded nearly 500 others in a truck bombing at a U.S. Air Force housing complex in Saudi Arabia.
•September 1997: Iran-backed Hamas suicide bombers blew themselves up at a shopping mall in Jerusalem, killing an American-Israeli dual citizen and wounding seven other American citizens.
•August 1998: Al-Qaeda suicide bombers, facilitated  by Iran-backed Hezbollah, simultaneously bombed U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 people — including a dozen American citizens.
•August 2001: An Iran-backed Hamas terrorist blew up  a Jerusalem pizzeria, killing three Americans.
•January 2002: An Iran-backed al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade terrorist killed  an American-Israeli dual citizen in the West Bank.
•July 2002: An Iran-backed Hamas terrorist killed  five Americans in a bombing at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
•June 2003: An Iran-backed Hamas suicide bomber killed  17 people — including an American citizen — on a bus in Jerusalem.
•October 2003: Iran-backed Popular Resistance Committees terrorists killed three U.S. diplomatic personnel in a bombing in Gaza.
•Between 2003 and 2011: Iran-backed militias killed  at least 603 U.S. troops in Iraq — “roughly one in every six American combat fatalities in Iraq.”
•August 2003: An Iran-backed Hamas terrorist blew up  a bus in Jerusalem, killing five Americans and wounding one other American.
•August 2006: Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists killed  American citizen and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier Michael Levin during the Second Lebanon War — the only American to die in the conflict.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

Is @CBSNews now conceding they are part of the DNC? I’m not sure how I feel about either party but clearly this organization has taken a side. They are untrustworthy and apparently forgotten how to be journalists. Sad.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@markminervini Definitely follow the politics and the politicians. They really know what they are doing. Just ask them.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@RealRickRule Nothing is artificial about their ignorance. It is genuine.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@mikulkal No need to dive in yet. The pool may be empty. Or it may be full. No one has a clue just yet.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@mikulkal Thank you for this post. Its brutal out there right now.

[Leoš Mikulka @mikulkal]

Market Summary – WK12: "But did you die?"
⚠️ Disclaimer: This may be longer and not purely market-focused - but it’s probably the most important summary I’ve written this year!

Personal account:
Despite knowing better, the ego-hunting volatility got me too. The urge to make money by "taking advantage" of the volatility cost me ~1.5% of equity.
My planned max drawdown from highs moved from ~5% → ~6.5%.

Not ideal.
But hey - I’m still above water! And that’s really the point.

Mindset & expectations:
Sometimes we just need to calm our expectations.
We all have big goals. We all want to play A+ game. But the reality is → A+ game is rare; even the best don’t operate there consistently - the same teams don’t win championships every year.

But here’s the important part: even your A- or B game can still get you to the playoffs. And the payout there is already more than decent.

- In easy dollar environments: maybe your goal is to "crush it" (e.g. 50-100%+) → If you make 20-40% → you know what? You made it! That’s amazing!
- In hard penny environments: maybe your goal is to steadily build toward outperformance → If you’re flat or slightly green → you know what? You made it! That’s amazing!

The ultimate goal is simple: don’t go underwater so the math starts working against you (from experience, that’s a tough place to be climbing from)

One subtle but extremely important "a-ha" moment for me came from an MPA session with @markminervini and @MarkRitchie_II back in June '22. The market was down ~30% YTD and someone asked:
- "I’m not making money - what should I improve?"
→ The answer from Mark & Mark was simple: "Are you at 0%, or slightly below? Then you’re absolutely crushing it!"

That’s perspective.

We always tend to slip towars "what-ifs" and "should haves" - "If I just held those 2-3 names…", "I should have selected this name to keep..."
→ But the real question is: did you follow your plan?
- And even if you didn’t - remember: even if you miss a penalty shot in playoffs, you can still make it to finals. If the defense holds, you advance.
And sometimes, even A+ execution isn’t enough - there’s always a component of luck involved.

So the takeaway here is simple: get content with yourself. Expectations will always run ahead (and they should) - just don’t let them distort reality.

Market:
The good old saying 'Nothing good happens below the 200-day MA' may stay true for a while here.
And if you got caught - don’t BS yourself blaming a "black swan war event". This wasn’t a black swan.

The signs were there all along.
- We’ve been chopping and rotating in a very selective environment since November
- Energy broke out 1-2 months before the war even started
- Value has been leading since the beginning of the year (often a late-cycle signal)

As of now, it’s not pretty:
- Momentum fading + Yields rising + the dollar strong + Credit spreads widening + Oil pushing higher
- Momentum traders are getting forced out due to ugly technical action
- Value investors are still not interested - valuations haven’t reset enough yet
- Broader crowd is stuck in uncertainty, balancing geopolitical risks with inflation concerns.

So what you get is an environment with no natural buyers.

And that kind of environment typically leads to what we’re already seeing: air pockets, failed bounces, and sharp moves that are tradable - but very unreliable. This is not a place where clean trends just emerge and carry.

I personally don’t think a simple ceasefire headline fixes this. Something bigger needs to shift - either technically, structurally, or both.
We could see:
- a violent capitulation event, where leverage gets flushed out and panic selling takes over.
- or something else breaks (private credit, banking, ...) - forcing either a policy response or at least a repricing
- or (this is probably the most likely but also the hardest to trade) - we get a slow rounding bottom. The phase where bad news simply becomes 'old news', sentiment stays bearish, and price quietly stabilizes while everyone gets worn out from failed bounces.

What I’ll be watching is fairly straightforward:
- Whether the market starts ignoring bad news.
- Whether new leadership actually emerges.
Whether selling pressure begins to exhaust.
- Bonus: whether liquidity improves (yields drop, dollar weakens).

Until then, this is not a clarity environment.
It’s a survival environment.
Expect volatility. Not clarity.
Stay alive.
That’s the edge!

[Nick shirley @nickshirleyy]

🚨 Here is the full 40 minutes of my crew and I exposing California fraud, Minnesota was big but California is even bigger... We uncovered over $170,000,000 in fraud as these fraudsters live in luxury with no consequences. Like it and share it, the fraud must STOP.

We ALL work way too hard and pay too much in taxes for this to be happening. These fraudsters have been able to defraud American taxpayers for years without any pushback from the public and politicians.

It is time to EXPOSE IT ALL and end America's fraud crisis.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@RichardMoglen @RealSimpleAriel Pretty sure he is not using @deepvue

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Bifurcated market....

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@RealSimpleAriel @GaryKaltbaum Watching for relative strength like a hawk and refining lists.

[Jake Baron @Patentgrinder]

@CFlanders7 I’m doin the same with MU.

[Dennis C @dennisc230]

Dear Congress. Please send me a list of what you accomplished over the last two weeks. Because I think we are all wondering.......what the fuck you actually do.
Thanks. We The People.