Tesla's FSD will not work on AI4, as advertised: you will not be able to sleep in your car while in motion outside of geofenced "safe zones".
FSD needs AI5 hardware!
Why?
1) AI4 is 5 years old hardware.
AI4 was taped out in 2021. Samples were made by September 2021, preparing mass production.
This alone would not be enough evidence but Tesla's excruciatingly slow rollout implies FSD is still too dumb.
2) Tesla cannot train for all edge cases.
There are simply too many edge cases within every 100 million miles driven and too much variability per scene.
What's needed is more intelligence. More intelligence requires larger models and faster computation for latency reasons.
Without it, a fast rollout is impossible and Tesla is stuck having to test the heck out of every little community around the world before an unsupervised release is possible.
This means, your current Tesla equipped with hardware 4 (AI4) faces the same fate as hardware 3 (AI3): obsolescence.
There won't be Elon's "the fleet awakens" and therefore no "greatest asset appreciation of all time".
AI5 will likely launch in the first half of 2027.
What's going to happen:
1) Tesla/Elon cannot admit it. If potential buyers knew about it, some would postpone their Tesla purchase to get an AI5 equipped car. If the number of such customers was large enough it could be a disaster for Tesla's cash flow. Management would struggle to explain away the sales collapse.
2) It's possible that after years of testing and tweaking Tesla may be able to unlock FSD that allows sleeping in the car in certain geofenced "safe zones". As you drive outside a safe zone, Tesla will require you to supervise the vehicle (as is currently the case). So, AI4 cars will never become truly everywhere (outside safe zones) self driving cars without supervision.