Paul Amburn

Sysco Foodservice Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands

[Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder]

In Plato's famous parable, we are all prisoners in a cave, believing that our shadowy surroundings are reality, but needing to break out into a sunnier, airier, more lively world.

During our American election cycles, polling is the cave.

Very early on, polls establish some baseline of expectation. Then newspapers can report when some poll says something surprising -- which just means different from other polls.  In the cave, we get used to the overlap of shadow, and confuse this with light.

Polls ask people to judge between two candidates.  They rarely ask about policy.  We are looking only at what is placed right in front of us.  Out in the world, though, beyond the polling cave, it is differences of policy that matter in our lives.  And so our polling obsession gets in the way of the knowledge we would actually need to make judgements.

The polling cave is where we pass the time.  And we come to think that our shadowy media domicile is just nature.  The media treat the polls as normative, as describing the world as it should be.  Our own behavior, when election day comes, will then be characterized as a "polling error."

In Plato's story of the cave, we are all driven from this emotion to that by those who manipulate us.  They walk behind us, holding objects that cast frightening shadows on the wall in front of us.  And so it is in our polling cave.  We are told that the polls are close, and that therefore the election will be close.  And so the cave is full of tension.

This is, of course, a convenient situation.  The candidates can tell their supporters that they must vote.  The media can hover at the edge of two dramatically different scenarios.  But we have to remember that this is just a game of shadows. It is not the reality that we will live in after election day.

And the game, it must be said, has not been played fairly.  Since the story of a close race was established early one, the people who accumulate and judge the polls have been dismissing individual polls that tell another story.

And even were that not the case, even were all the polling perfect, it would not mean what we tend to think.  If all the polls were adjudged to predict a very close race, that just means, quite literally, than anything is possible: it could be close, or it could be a landslide for Harris, or it could be a landslide for Trump.

So don't be surprised if this election is not close.  Even the pollsters, if you listen carefully, are telling you that a clear victory by one candidate or the other is more likely than a narrow result.

And above all, get out of the polling cave and into the real world.  Vote, and relish that you can vote.

There is a world out there, one that is not driven by our anxieties and their profiteers, one that, every once in a while, can be changed by our actions.

We have been held for months in the polling cave. But today you can escape that shadowy delusion and help create a better world outside.

So get out there and be part of the big surprise.

(Read this essay and more by going to the link in my profile)

[Rick Steves @RickSteves]

Many don’t realize that the first people Hitler sent to his concentration camps weren’t everyday Jewish citizens, but his political opponents. So, when Trump rants about retribution, locking up his opponents, and giving them “very long sentences,” I can’t help but take him seriously… because history teaches us that is what fascist dictators do during their “Day One” period to consolidate their power. (After all, if you’re hellbent on staying in power but aren’t likely to win the next election, you can’t have your political opponents running around free.)

To keep fascism out of our lives, vote for democracy!

[Judge Bob Orr @JudgeBobOrr]

If only every American voter would read this.

[CBS News @CBSNews]

Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries, his romantic partner, Matthew Smith and the couple’s alleged middleman James Jacobson, were arrested on charges of sex trafficking and engaging in interstate prostitution, prosecutors announced Tuesday.
Jeffries was accused of luring young men into sex by suggesting they could become models for the fashion company, prosecutors said, and they alleged Jeffries and Smith "paid for dozens of men" to travel both domestically and internationally "for the purpose of engaging in commercial sex acts.
"The defendants pressured those attending to consume "alcohol, Viagra, muscle relaxants known as 'poppers,'" according to the indictment, and caused them to believe that not complying with certain "sex acts" during events could harm their career.

[Tomer Burg @burgwx]

[Mon 10/7 evening Milton overview]

Milton exceeded expectations, and calling what we saw today an "exceptional" rapid intensification phase - bringing it to one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record - is an understatement.

Next, attention turns to its Florida impacts.

[Paul Amburn @PaulAmburn]

@RepRiggleman and at some point she will act like you agree with her like the inmate from Colorado. Love how the Judge shut that down.

[Joshua Reed Eakle 🗽 @JoshEakle]

MAGA: "I don't know why immigrants won't come here LEGALLY and follow the process!?"

The process:

[PBS News @NewsHour]

The New Apostolic Reformation, a far-right movement that wants to erase the separation between church and state, increasingly intersects with the Trump campaign.

@GeoffRBennett talks to @TaylorMatthewD about the relationship between MAGA ideology and white Christian nationalism.

[The White House 46 Archived @WhiteHouse46]

Happy 100th Birthday, President Jimmy Carter!

[7News DC @7NewsDC]

"Not everybody gets 100 years on this earth, and when somebody does, and when they use that time to do so much good for so many people, it's worth celebrating," Jason Carter, the former president's grandson said.
https://t.co/QDBbDemgpJ

[Paul Amburn @PaulAmburn]

They’re all victims

[Paul Amburn @PaulAmburn]

At least he still has his bodyguard

[Jeffrey Wright 🥜 @jfreewright]

Larry Brown without question should be in the Hall of Fame. 💯

The facts…

He led Washington in rushing 6 straight seasons - from ’69 (rookie year) to ’74. He holds the record for most career receptions by a Wash RB. He led the NFL in rushing in '70, playing in only 13 of 14 gms. Was NFL MVP in '72 - the first Super Bowl season for DC - was 2nd in the NFL in rushing (sat out the last 2 gms) with a yd/g average of 101.3 (highest still in DC history) and led the NFL in total yds. In '73, he became the ONLY active player to combine for 1000+ yds in 5 straight yrs and joined only 2 other backs in LEAGUE HISTORY (HoFers Jim Brown & Simpson) to rush for 5000 yds in 5 seasons. He was selected to the Pro Bowl his first 4 years and named 1st-Team All-Pro in ’70 & ’72. Injuries shortened his career - cheapshot to no end, as punishment for his talent & toughness. All this during the era when O lineman could not block with extended arms or using their hands.

When football was football. And #43 was king.

[Kenny Mayne @Kenny_Mayne]

I get the folks who got conned and stay conned..

I get the racists..

I get the money only Republicans who want their tax cuts.

I don’t get the uncommitted who are none of the above who can’t see him for what he is.

[Paul Amburn @PaulAmburn]

@DrewSav No sir but I’ll take his vote

[Sarah Longwell @SarahLongwell25]

Every new day brings a new singularly disqualifying detail. But conservatives shrug.

[Paul Amburn @PaulAmburn]

@BillyBaldwin @ProjectLincoln And Todd Rundgren bop music

[Jessy Han @hjessy_]

This is the end result of people retreating into their partisan bubbles: thinking slanderous claims are actually being believed, Kamala faked a rally in Detroit using AI, and entire cities burned to the ground in 2020.

[Chris Krebs @C_C_Krebs]

On the hack of the Trump campaign, I’m taking this seriously & have it on good authority it’s the real deal. You should too.

I tend to not comment much these days for various reasons personal & professional, but this is important, I have a bit of relevant insight & experience, & there’s more coming & we need to be prepared for down the road.

You might not like the victim here, but the adversary gives zero Fs who you like or don’t like. They have their own objectives and guess what, you’re the target. Take this seriously.

But also keep in mind that you’re part of the playbook, they want you to either amplify it or doubt it. Take a beat, touch grass as the kids say, & just vote.

American voters decide American elections. Let’s keep it that way.

[CALL TO ACTIVISM @CalltoActivism]

HOLY LORD, every Christian must see this!