Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto

Assist Prof in Economics. Financial Macro. Poli Sci. And other stuff. Also Corinthians and Liverpool fan.

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

Ever wanted to measure anger in political speeches? Wondered how political reform can affect anger? Do MPs use anger strategically?

My working paper (undergoing revisions, comments welcome) with Kuniaki Nemoto https://t.co/LVAOnx2k4n tries to answer these questions for NZ.

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

In short, when it comes to trends in countries, the two obvious approaches, econometrics and poli sci, suggest that any permanent change will take a long time to be ascertained. Optimistically, at least a few years! More likely, only after 2028. Be wary of claims before that.

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

I've just made a new post on my new-ish Substack:

https://t.co/3q0IeqwxGT

It's about the challenges of how soon we know when trends permanently change. E.g., the US.

(Note that I mostly keep away from social media nowadays, I'm only posting here in case anyone is interested.)

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@Noahpinion !

You're literally a couple of minutes away from where I am, interesting coincidence! Wouldn't have expected many Econ PhDs in Harajuku.

Not sure if you care, but there's some really nice coffee around, I recommend Lattest or Be a Good Neighbour for very nice espresso.

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

Anyway, the point is this is a good way to illustrate some of the challenges of establishing causality in social sciences. I definitely aim to show parts of this video to my students in the future, so they can (hopefully!) understand these points. 8/8

#EconTwitter

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

An interesting example of how evidence for causality can be found without the use of regressions:

https://t.co/JdPQVVdT2B

It explores how the name Tiffany has fared over time by CPG Grey. At the timestamp, he video discusses the explosion of the name in the 80s. 1/n

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

(One note: I will say that the evidence for the effect of the VHS is the weak part in the video. I'm a bit skeptical that VCR penetration was sufficiently high to have the effects the video posits. But this just highlights my points above of how evidence is never conclusive.) 7/n

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

I know far too many people in this situation:

https://t.co/hBbd0ywnWd

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

I am very happy that a letter of mine is in this week's edition of the Economist:

https://t.co/TT4Xj9bf0L

And despite my critiques, I should be clear that I recommend @sarahmaslin 's report.

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@JonSteinsson Very interesting! I definitely experienced a lot of the changes you write about. I might have a comment or two, how would you prefer to receive them, via email or here?

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@fetzert @EJ_RES @RoyalEconSoc Kudos! Congrats, Thiemo!

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@MichaelFranca Sobre os pesos, tenho uma ou outra ideia, mas nada muito especial. Todo modo, se eu tiver tempo, te mando um email sobre isso!

Obrigado novamente!

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@MichaelFranca Obrigado! Acho vou precisar ler o Firpo et al e Ransom e Sutch para entender melhor algumas coisas, e.g. peso igual para cada dos 3 componentes do indice (que me parece ser a escolha obvia/correta, mas nao é "neutra").

Todo modo, muito revelador ter um indice desses, parabens!

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@MichaelFranca Oi Michael, muito interessante e relevante o indice, confesso que fiquei surpreso com alguns dos valores!

Uma pergunta, voces tem/terao um paper discutindo a metogologia? Estou curioso de saber um pouco mais sobre sua construcao.

(Corrigindo de um tweet apagado com autocorrect)

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@td_econ @R2Rsquared https://t.co/17rqALOgvo

[Caley Graphics @Caley_graphics]

xG map for #POR - #GER

well that was fun and goofy as hell

[Pedro Franco de Campos Pinto @PedroFdCP]

@michaelxpettis @WSJ Yes, I agree, I was playing a bit of devil's advocate.

I am curious to what extent it's each of these factors (and others!). I think the risk aversion factor is smallish overall, but might explain a significant, but not sure how much, part of the overall jump in the last year.