@TXMCtrades I wasn't clear. I meant the American democratic experiment. Minority interests argue for special treatment regularly, in our system. Arguing for a de minimus exemption isn't unreasonable. It might not be politically realistic, but there's a political solution for that.
@TXMCtrades My valuation framework puts btc at $1M in 2040. That's a CAGR in the low 20%, and declining to the global debasement rate from there. The hype and hucksterism in this space has always been a huge source of doubt, for me.
@JimChuong As a tradesman, it's been a great way to store some of the value of my labor by DCAing into bitcoin. I like that I can self custody it. I like that it isn't someone else's liability. I like that bitcoin can't be debased. I like holding anti-authoritarian money. Legit?
Indeed. The legacy system is incentivized not to make stablecoins appear like anything except regular dollars so people are not hesitant to spend them in the same way as they spend dollars. The priority of the state is seamless transition to the new digital panopticon. This will erode the link between crypto token performance and stablecoin market cap growth that existed in prior cycles. As @markgoodw_in said, people won't even know they're using stables. This is a net loss for the end consumer and a win for the financial industrial complex and the state.
@TXMCtrades I see more than inflation here. Economic sentiment surveys increasingly reflect the algorithmically-driven hyper-partisanization of information the average American engages with to understand the political economy.
I just got back from the Bitcoin Energy Summit in Lisbon and I have a question that won't leave me alone.
First some context: Bitcoin mining is now stabilizing the grids of 7 nations, 4 agencies (including the Spanish Govt and the World's largest energy policy association) just called for more flexible demand being critical to the resilience of the grids of the future - and Bitcoin mining is the world's most flexible load resource by an order of magnitude.
So in light of this my question is this: why is 95% of the Bitcoin adoption conversation about Bitcoin-as-money when Bitcoin-as-energy is already deployed on grids across 3 continents?
Is it possible that energy is the Bitcoin usecase that paves the road for mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin in the West?
I've been in this space for four years now. When I started, the conversation was "bitcoin mining wastes energy." A group of Bitcoiners including @thetrocro, @jyn_urso and others changed that. Then it became "ok maybe it doesn't waste energy, but it's not useful." @gladstein, @jack and others changed that too.
But here's what I noticed in Lisbon. Three separate European organisations - the European Bitcoin Energy Association, Free Madeira, and the Institut National de Bitcoin in France - are all independently converging on the same conclusion.
@geyer_rachel, Chair of EBEA said energy is what will move the needle for Bitcoin in Europe. @andreloja at @FREEMadeiraOrg said energy is the most topical issue in Europe right now. Bastien Desteuque (@Proxy18387764), directeur général at @BitcoinPolicyFr said they're focusing on mining because France has spare nuclear capacity and that's where the biggest opportunity is.
Three organisations. Same conclusion.
And that's before you get to what's actually being built. In Sweden, a man I coach runs ASIC hardware that earns almost two-thirds of its revenue from frequency regulation - keeping the lights on, responding in seconds to the need of the grid operator, and helping to stabilize the grid an incredible 11,247 times last year alone. (Yes, you read that sentence right).
In Lisbon, I watched Kenji Tateiwa present a circular economy where bitcoin mining heat grows tropical fish and the CO2 gets converted to charcoal and micro diamonds. Bastian outlined how France's surplus nuclear energy could be absorbed by bitcoin mining by 2027.
And outside the West, from stabilizing the economy of Bhutan post-covid to helping save Virunga National Park in Africa - Bitcoin mining was behind both events and many more. This phenomenon is a global one.
The conversation has quietly moved from "does bitcoin mining help grids?" to "how many services can one machine provide?"
We've been thinking about this like monoculture - one machine, one function.
What I saw in Lisbon is permaculture. The same hardware doing frequency regulation, heat capture, Sats-minting ... and potentially in the near future - voltage regulation (something that would have prevented the 28 April 2025 Iberian Peninsular Blackout).
I talked to Bitcoin founders after the keynote who told me the energy thesis had opened their eyes. These are people who worked to advance Bitcoin payment infrastructure, and they hadn't fully grasped this.
Bitcoin solves a monetary problem the world is only beginning to understand. I'm more convinced of that than ever.
And ... as we wait for that revolution to be fully grasped, the energy revolution is already here - deployed, generating revenue, stabilizing grids. It might just be the thing that opens the door for everything else. What other Bitcoin use case is this far along ... at least in the West?
@TXMCtrades In '20/'21, 'all in' was such a flex, everyone derided diversification, and the demonetization of gold was imminent. But no worries, now we've got digital credit!