@evan_semet O/U on years until ads like this are no longer legal?
this seems dangerous.
how long did cigarette ads last in the US?
selfishly, i am also tired of Kevin Hart & Lebron telling me to punt parlays on DK every commercial break...
there was only *ONE* team that the model did not bet against during the regular season on ANY moneyline: CAR.
obviously there's a layer that they were perpetually underpriced by the mkt.... + ofc the fact that they fundamentally are probably the best team in the league.
@paperswbacktest can we just let the percentile-people still believe that it is an edge...... please. we (not them) benefit from the confusion of a level and something mapped to the future.
@SqueezeMetrics Say what you want about our guy Taleb, but the principles from Skin in the Game are doing wonders as a lens for price-behavior across multiple assets in 2026, no?
@therobotjames & Even on the difference between mean actual and mean predicted, it still needs to be in market context.
I have found some of my "best" calibrated models backtested and perform the worst in actual PnL.
@bhawks0035 Hockey is, and I cannot stress this enough, no fun to bet lol. It is a stomach-dropping comeback every other night for a team you had crazy CLV on (and I've been told CLV's value in hockey is sort of "meh" in the first place).
Should've stuck to just being a casual fan....
@bhawks0035 Moneyline models are entirely team-based-factors, with some factors for "important skaters" being missing. This allows me to bet VERY early (spread models are similar).
For team total markets, however, I do require goalie information.. sadly I couldn't find a way to avoid it...
@bhawks0035 Pure luck on my number- snow in Ohio deserves all of the credit, not me.
This is my first season trading hockey and I’m always STUNNED by how much the market reacts to back-up goalies. I have some moneyline models that don’t even use a goalie factor to capture this effect.
@bhawks0035 I filled LAK at +123 yesterday afternoon before their CBJ game got cancelled. After CBJ cancelled, I saw odds fall to ~105.
In your experience, are back to back games on the road really worth that much? I was surprised how much LAK moved (but hey, im not complaining..).