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cross-asset vol

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@TimTheMM @jaredhstocks you're forgetting the tons of alpha in knowing the strikes of the JPM collar

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@zerohedge outright puts to trade skew?

0_o

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@evan_semet O/U on years until ads like this are no longer legal?

this seems dangerous.

how long did cigarette ads last in the US?

selfishly, i am also tired of Kevin Hart & Lebron telling me to punt parlays on DK every commercial break...

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& no I didn't use this information to buy them to win the cup +850 (now trading much closer to 160)

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there was only *ONE* team that the model did not bet against during the regular season on ANY moneyline: CAR.

obviously there's a layer that they were perpetually underpriced by the mkt.... + ofc the fact that they fundamentally are probably the best team in the league.

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@TimTheMM can we just let them look at these rainbow charts if it inspires them to bid up VoV on 19+ strikes? or even cheer them on?

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@paperswbacktest can we just let the percentile-people still believe that it is an edge...... please. we (not them) benefit from the confusion of a level and something mapped to the future.

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@spotgamma he has even ripped off your gradient color scheme at this point @SqueezeMetrics?

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@VivekVRao1 I strongly agree with your post AND the original post, funny enough.

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@SqueezeMetrics Say what you want about our guy Taleb, but the principles from Skin in the Game are doing wonders as a lens for price-behavior across multiple assets in 2026, no?

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@therobotjames & Even on the difference between mean actual and mean predicted, it still needs to be in market context.

I have found some of my "best" calibrated models backtested and perform the worst in actual PnL.

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@bhawks0035 Hockey is, and I cannot stress this enough, no fun to bet lol. It is a stomach-dropping comeback every other night for a team you had crazy CLV on (and I've been told CLV's value in hockey is sort of "meh" in the first place).

Should've stuck to just being a casual fan....

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@bhawks0035 Moneyline models are entirely team-based-factors, with some factors for "important skaters" being missing. This allows me to bet VERY early (spread models are similar).

For team total markets, however, I do require goalie information.. sadly I couldn't find a way to avoid it...

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@bhawks0035 Pure luck on my number- snow in Ohio deserves all of the credit, not me.

This is my first season trading hockey and I’m always STUNNED by how much the market reacts to back-up goalies. I have some moneyline models that don’t even use a goalie factor to capture this effect.

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@bhawks0035 I guess just Kuemper v Forsberg as the main driver, and then a little bit of % for a B2B?

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@bhawks0035 I filled LAK at +123 yesterday afternoon before their CBJ game got cancelled. After CBJ cancelled, I saw odds fall to ~105.

In your experience, are back to back games on the road really worth that much? I was surprised how much LAK moved (but hey, im not complaining..).

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@TKL_Adam I mean- we have to be trolling at this point with these posts, right?

“0.003% happened twice in one day”

Once again:

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@investingluc Lol

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@bhawks0035 Beat me on this price! I have Sens-110 today… I did manage to get Vancouver +163 and EDM -167 as well.

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Oh no- pretty big +EV for the games tonight on current prices. Knowing NHL trading, that's a 0-3 death sentence;

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The CLV curse is broken!