PerpetualValue

Econometrician and investor. Mostly distressed debt and small caps. Rationality over emotion. Critical about corrupted 'science'. Cui bono? Views are my own.

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

I’ll cover the subject of mRNA vaccines.

I warn you.

Do not read this twitter thread if you want to stay stuck in your belief that the vaccine is your golden ticket to pre-pandemic life!

Do read it if you want to be informed about what would be injected in your body.

1/

[Baron Investments @baroninvestment]

Richards Bay hovering near YTD highs, Newcastle nearer to $150 now. Some gas to coal switching, Indonesia under the spotlight.

[Suppressed News. @SuppressedNws1]

U.S-Israel Military INTEGRATION with MINIMAL oversight.

Buried inside the 2027 NDAA is Section 224.

A proposal to fuse the U.S. and Israeli militaries deeper than ANY U.S. alliance, including NATO.

Shared military data.

Joint weapons production.

AI, cyber, autonomous systems, and directed energy integration.

It would also move U.S.-Israel military integration out of public aid votes and into opaque defense contracts with MINIMAL oversight.

[Suppressed News. @SuppressedNws1]

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Republicans and Democrats just UNITED to push deeper US military integration with Israel

Ro Khanna: “Now let me just be clear, Mr. Netanyahu actually wrote to a member of Congress to put this section 224 into the bill.”

The House voted on Section 224 of the NDAA, a measure expanding US Israeli military cooperation, especially on CYBERWEAPONS.

Rep. Ro Khanna and Rep. Sarah Jacobs tried to remove it.

They LOST.

Almost the entire House backed the measure.

[Another oil and gas tourist @oilgastourist]

No, issuing new equity prior to closing an acquisition isn't a requirement. Don't be fooled by pumpers.
Why would a Co issue shares at a discount when it can issue less shares at a higher price after announcing a value-creating acquisition?
Remember, oil is at $97/bbl
#AET $AET.L

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

I agree with this assessment

It seems weird to do an equity raise, while simultaneously pointing to the operating cash flow that the assets should bring in

Never felt comfortable with the greediness of the management and had positioned accordingly

Still hold a tiny position

[Another oil and gas tourist @oilgastourist]

After a period of extraordinarily high prices and being carried in a drilling campaign, Afentra's directors have decided that an offering is necessary. Oil price still at $94-98/bbl plus premiums.
The three founders haven't participated ... Pirates will be pirates.
#AET $AET.L

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

@Riccardino999 I don't think this means an acquisition is near at all
Because then they would just announce an acquisition in combination with an equity raise

A placing is actually often negative, diluting your upside

But I'm glad you found a positive twist to it
Management not participating?

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

Afentra #AET intends to place 40m USD @ 67p, a dilution of ~18%

Management tried to sell the Company, which didn't work
Now the management sells a part of the Company at a price much lower than most speculators thought the whole Company would sell at

Glad I sold most before

[Wouter | Freedom Maximalist ∞ @WouterHODL]

Twee werelden

Gister sprak ik kort met 2 andere mensen. Beide werkzaam bij de gemeente en (semi)overheid. Ze spraken enige tijd met elkaar, ik stond erbij en luisterde mee. Het gesprek ging over beleid, plannen, wethouders, budgetten, politieke keuzes, functies, benoemingen enzovoorts.

Ik stond erbij als ondernemer en investeerder en hoor een compleet andere wereld. Terwijl 'onze' wereld zwaar onder vuur ligt, in een land waar regel- en belastingdruk door het dak gaat en er nog steeds een Marxistische Box 3 regeling dreigt voor 2028 (zie https://t.co/w8cMjlLaRf voor mijn calculator) is hun wereld beter dan ooit. Salarissen zijn gegarandeerd, plannen worden altijd betaald, mislukkingen kost ze persoonlijk niets.

Het zijn beide bijzonder aardige mensen maar zij begrijpen mij niet en ik begrijp hun wereld niet.

Er zijn twee Nederlanden. Het Nederland waarbij je indirect of direct voor de staat werkt. Zit je in die hoek, dan is een betere plek op de wereld waarschijnlijk nauwelijks denkbaar. En er is het Nederland waar je het zelf probeert te verdienen en waarin je met leedwezen ziet dat je financiële vrijheid stap voor stap verder wordt afgebroken. Waarin boeren en vissers gewoon worden weggejaagd. Waarin mensen met wat vastgoed beschuldigend 'huisjesmelker' worden genoemd. Waarin kleine spaarders en investeerders niet eens zelf meer voor hun oude dag kunnen investeren.

Blijkbaar moeten we toe naar een situatie waarin iedereen afhankelijk wordt van de overheid. Zelfredzaamheid en bezit is bijna verdacht.

De kloof tussen deze twee groepen is zelden groter geweest denk ik.

[Jochen Bittner @JochenBittner]

Völlig richtig, Klimaziele lassen sich sogar ganz ohne Energie erreichen.

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

'constant flipflopping'
'pure gaslighting, meant to demoralize citizens'

How are we doing over there?
Is there a deal yet?
Is the Strait of Hormuz already open?

Or are we just watching a puppet show with Trump supposedly yelling at his master Netanyahu 'You're f*cking crazy'

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

The constant flipflopping about this war reminds me of the constant flipflopping about Covid measures
It is pure gaslighting, meant to demoralize citizens

After a while they'll be brainwashed and will just accept everything

This could last long and we could see energy lockdowns

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

@Riccardino999 Coverage ratio is actually 0.55%
And average LTV on mortgages just 63.5%

[Janneke Nieuwstad @Jannekestad]

Deze video is al vaak gedeeld, haar woorden zijn helaas nog steeds relevant.

[Senator Ron Johnson @SenRonJohnson]

Thank you, @SecKennedy, for telling the truth about the widespread government lies and corruption during the COVID pandemic.

[Aaron Siri @AaronSiriSG]

CDC is rereviewing substances found at toxic sites deemed the most significant threat to human health. On that list are aluminum, phenol, formaldehyde, etc. As each is also in one or more childhood vaccines, we asked the CDC to also, this time, consider their dangers when injected into infants and children. @icandecide https://t.co/GRG1r4TRWO

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

Thungela Resources #TGA is recovering after a dip

Newcastle and Richard Bay Coal Prices are up significantly, and the Company should print significant cash at these levels

One of my bigger positions

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

It ain't over 'till the fat lady sings

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC.

Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations including Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

[Children’s Health Defense @ChildrensHD]

📉 Well, what do we have here? Merck’s sales for its HPV vaccine Gardasil have reportedly dropped 40%.

“They’ve lost 40% of their sales for Gardasil because people talk.”

“People are getting the message that this is a bad vaccine.”

“There’s no proof that it has prevented any cervical cancer.”

“We’ve proven lots of cases of autoimmune disorder, of POTS disorder, and of death from the Gardasil shot.”

The truth can only be hidden for so long.

@CHDTVLive @maryhollandnyc

[Camus @newstart_2024]

Jordan Peterson went straight to the point:

“I’m not a fan of collectivists. I don’t care if they’re on the left or the right. The right level of analysis is the individual, and that’s what the West got right.”

He called out Marxists, group-first identity politics, and professors turning impressionable 18-year-olds into activists before they’re properly educated.

Building a society that truly respects the individual is one of the hardest things humans have ever tried. It requires constant vigilance. Collectivism always comes back wearing new clothes, as justice, community, equity, or compassion.

“The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights cannot claim to be defenders of minorities.” - Ayn Rand

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

War still not over, Strait of Hormuz still closed

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Over the last 20 minutes:

0600 local: Iran carries out a ballistic missile attack on Kuwait (likely targeting US forces in response to the next event).

0615: CENTCOM confirms it carried out strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones earlier this weekend.

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

TTF gas prices are up 58% YTD
While Brent Oil is up 114% YTD

Supply of LNG imho has had a much bigger disruption than oil production infrastructure

Also gas markets tend to be more regional and difficult logistics wise

I think gas prices can hold up better than oil prices

[PerpetualValue @PerpetualValue]

'A draft'
'Initial'
'Informal'

Yes, people, this time it's really over!!

*Sarcasm over*

Although I don't believe in this agreement, my oil equity exposure is small, but hold very significant $TNZ.TO still

I think it's much easier for oil to rebalance than the gas markets

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN'S STATE TELEVISION REPORTS A DRAFT OF AN INITIAL INFORMAL AGREEMENT WITH THE US.