Peter Eliya

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ 61.8%

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

Live Q&A https://t.co/DdHtUt3sRB

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ Is there a primer on the site somewhere on how to best use them. New sub on trader tier.

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ 777

[FoundersMin @FoundersMin]

We are saddened to inform friends that our dear brother, Voddie Baucham, Jr., has left the land of the dying and entered the land of the living. Earlier today, after suffering an emergency medical incident, he entered into his rest and the immediate presence of the Savior whom he loved, trusted, and served since he was converted as a college student. Please pray for Bridget, their children, and grandchildren.

Precious in the sight of the Lord is the death of his saints. – Psalm 116:15

https://t.co/Fxd8q6JjC9

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ 🤝

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

This is what McElligott flagged in his June 25th note

Apparently Nomura's model triggered its largest buy signal in its ~21 year history, projecting $114B of US eq's to buy over the 1-month forward period.

The 9 prior signals didn't come close to the magnitude of the size here- and the backtest data Charlie provided indicated that 100% of the time (upon triggering this signal), the index is HIGHER both 1 and 2m out, with median returns of 2.5% and 4.4% respectively

Loosely benchmarking the trigger against the closing level of the SPX (6092) the date he sent the note (6/25), the median returns put the index at 6244 on July 24th or 6366 on August 24th...

This actually provided a GREAT example of how to think about the duality of options (of course I'd weave those in)

The SPX dealer positioning was significantly skewed with MMs short calls in size throughout the July expirations

This was the case for a while, and it's why in my Sunday night spaces prior to June OPEX week I flagged the potential for spot-up/vol-up behavior right ahead

Sure enough, within a few days, we had SPX up, VIX up AND VVIX up- and generally we've had spot-up vol up behavior since I flagged it.

Even if you didn't have accurate dealer positioning data, you could still see the "tell" here in 1M vs 3M skew percentiles and skew betas-

Why did it matter?

...duality of hedging flows. Short upside gamma NEEDS A CATALYST or else you wind up ironically forcing the index AWAY from the dealer's short option strikes.

...$114B from VC community was obviously a pretty good catalyst, and we talked in the mentorship about options structures that perform well in a spot-up / vol-up environment.

Last newsletter I wrote, I noted that since the note (6/25) the index had already climbed 3.1% in just 5.5 trading days... remember the median move... "2.5% 1m forward return"

the dealer short call positioning most definitely exacerbated the move- combination of gamma and short vanna that helped knock in accelerant buying flows (short vanna evidenced in VIX +1.2 pts during the week SPX rallied 1.7%, with fixed strike vols higher)

The crazy part?

of the 114B in projected buying over the 1-month forward period, less than $1b of it was slated to hit in the first week.

1b down, 113b to go?

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolSignals 5971.50

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

Four hours left.

Where will the SPX close today?

Retweet, then answer.

Closest to the settlement gets a custom Tommy Bahama VolSignals polo.

...only the best @ VS 🆚

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

3 hours until markets open...

Where do Sep ES futures open tonight?

Answer and retweet.

The follower with the best guess
gets 3 months of Discord access for FREE🎯

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolSignals 5957

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ @LordStoppington 🫡

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@VolatilityQ Praying for healing in Jesus' name brother!

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@WifeyAlpha They spent years aging it, why water it down at the end?

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

This evening, I described how the Speaker is using the CR to set up a government funding crisis the week before Christmas.

Why Christmas? So he can pressure Members to vote for a bill they haven’t read, by using their desire to see their families on Christmas Eve against them.

[Eric Weinstein @ericweinstein]

A lot of Kamala supporting skeptics are asking me what I mean by “Donald Trump may not be allowed to become president again” in 2024

I think I am going to use this opportunity to show you why many sceptics, debunkers and educated people who reflexively and derisively target others as conspiracy theorists, are rapidly losing *everyone* smart and independent. Here goes:

I am suggesting that the 2024 election may be “Saved”. I am suggesting that our U.S. democracy may be “Fortified” between now and November. That right now there is a “conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes”. I am suggesting that Americans may be saved from “Russian electoral interference” by an “informal alliance” involving tech “business titans”.

I am suggesting that the possibility of “a vast, cross-partisan campaign” representing an “an extraordinary shadow effort” hidden, against all odds, from public view by complicict journalists who make sure not to write stories about it and editors who spike any remaining stories that mention it until after the election.

In short I am suggesting that there is right now a massive “conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes”. That “shadow campaigners” are secretly engaged in work that has “touched every aspect of the election” despite the lack of any stories from complicit mainstream news desks.

So what has all this to do with the army of insufferable character-assassins clothed as skeptics who laugh and laugh and laugh at conspiracy theorists?

Well, the conspirators confessed to the above after the 2020 election cycle. That is, it is those actually running cover for conspiracies that most aggressively label and smear those trying to piece together the shadow efforts as “conspiracy theorists”. Imagine a world so perverse where *correctly* labeling an actual conspirator is turned into an act of reputational self destruction even though the conspirators will later confess and brag about the whole thing while taking open victory laps.

Genius no? Diabolical genius, is still genius.

It that sounds far fetched, pathological, improbable, and diabolical to you, welcome to the club. It does to me too. But THAT *IS* WHAT HAPPENED exactly back in 2020.

The conspirators still aren’t really telling the truth. But what they *admit* to while bragging and taking victory laps is jaw dropping all the same.

Don’t believe it? Read the confession:

https://t.co/0e6oMHwLLf

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

VIP Mentorship >> Registration ends tonight

Follow, like & retweet...
2 random free entries drawn at 9:00 PM ET

think: "GEX plus everything else about options"

How do volatility markets work, from the lens of a practitioner?

Flows and positions you need to be aware of in the options markets...

How do dealer hedging flows influence price and volatility?

Nuts and bolts of market making,

a look👀at actual trades and flows, walkthroughs... live vicariously through your favorite market moments etc.

and I'll be doing regular morning calls this time around.

More condensed, more community, more interaction- and it looks like more volatility, to boot.

https://t.co/nh3V0tj809 for details

https://t.co/EgwmpBcu62 to sign-up

or DM me

If the cost is prohibitive, but you have *time* and a willingness to help with admin / light editing?

reach out!

Cheers 🥂
and see you in chat tonight

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@WifeyAlpha I'm game

[FOX Soccer @FOXSoccer]

Ghana's arrivals are always 🔥🔥🇬🇭

[Peter Eliya @PeterEliya]

@BrittRooted There was also a backlash against the opulence/indulgences when people were dirt poor and those amazing cathedrals were built. They had a point but lost a lot in the split. Puritans took it to the extreme and their mentality bled into the culture.