Peter Hanks, CFA

Senior Manager at Charles Schwab. Former CSM at the London Stock Exchange Group and @DailyFX Strategist.

[Peter Hanks, CFA @PeterHanksFX]

Can't wait to see how this "soft landing" pans out!

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

This is the dichotomy of market performance versus economic potential. If the economy is seen doing well, the Fed will hike further. To get the Fed to stop or cut, the eco outlook would need to be bad. No solid scenarios for 'risk' bulls. #FOMC

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

$NVDA's post-earnings gap higher (26%) is the stocks second biggest on record - after the 28% March 7th, 2000 gap. Doing some serious work for the $NDX's 2.6% advance today with Dow -0.4% and SPX -0.7%

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

With the Nasdaq 100 trying to hold up its >3% advance on the week, I'm noticing the $NDX - $DJIA ratio ('growth/value') is quickly approaching the 61.8% retracement of its Nov 2021-Jan 2023 slide. Faster rise than 2020 but not nearly as dramatic as 1999/2000

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The $SPX managed to overtake the May 1st high and the trendline resistance from Aug 26th. Looks like it has a lot of potential, but bulls still need to show up to carry it forward. Will they? I will will take off that H&S potential pattern though...

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The quiet in US indices is palpable but still better than what we are seeing in the German $DAX. Despite record highs only ~2% away, it has held a 2.3% range (as percentage of spot) for the past 20-days. Smallest holding pattern over that duration since 1996

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

We have #CPI tomorrow and I know the fears over recession are growing - rightfully so - but suggesting the Fed should act fast to prevent the threat isn't always the right move. Check the 1970s-80s between CPI (green), Fed Funds rate (blue) and recessions (red):

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

We ended this week off with another, impressive technical move lower for the $SPX and the event risk ahead is dense (including #NFPs). That said, there is still a major market hurdle: liquidity. What I'm looking for next week: https://t.co/KfRNQGeF5z

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The $SPX traded in its smallest trading day of 2022 Thursday even as the Nasdaq 100 edged closer to an official bull market. Let's see whether today's #NFPs urge the market to make a bigger run: https://t.co/JH0zYSFTRr

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

There we go back below the threshold that put the $SPX into a 'bear market'. Let's see how the market's temperature shifts as this retreat gains traction

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

Here is the Fed's balance sheet with the current level ($8.94 trillion) and its projected path moving forward at the Fed's set tempo. At this pace, we drop below $5 trillion by December 2025

[Peter Hanks, CFA @PeterHanksFX]

It's not your imagination, travel and vacations are becoming very pricy. A great look at some of the inputs using @Refinitiv Datastream

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The 10-year / 2-year yield curve reportedly inverted Tuesday, but I didn't see it print on my chart. The recession warnings are obviously following (given its 50 year track record), but not a foregone conclusion in my mind

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

Monetary policy is still a key theme for this week. The FOMC may be behind us, but there are three major central banks on tap this week (RBA, BOE, ECB) and speculation still ramped up (below, swaps pricing bps change in 2022)

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

A 1%+ drop for the Nasdaq today would make it four 1%+ drops in a row. Last time this happened was late December 2018, and before that, October 2008.

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The #FOMC rate decision is coming up. Though the taper is heavily expected, the Dollar has struggled and the $SPX notched fresh record highs. Here is what I'm expecting from this very important event: https://t.co/uKj1zxVCy7

[Cheds Trading @BigCheds]

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[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

We are heading into the final trading days for the month of September and event risk thins out amid the $SPX's rebound. This is what history says for the 39th week of the year and here is my take on the variable factors: https://t.co/ySMpDwRSNp

[Peter Hanks, CFA @PeterHanksFX]

Big spot for $BA this AM as the stock teeters on the brink of a trendline break which could open the door to further losses

Secondary support looks sparse until $204

[Peter Hanks, CFA @PeterHanksFX]

@agnderitu Thanks for that, I’ll still try to provide my point of view from time to time. 👍🏼

[Peter Hanks, CFA @PeterHanksFX]

Gold's breakdown beneath the trendline projection from late March really leaves it vulnerable to further losses in my opinion

A breach beneath $1750 could see $XAU take aim at the lows near $1680