China’s roadmap for Myanmar:
The election has been held and MAH is now the president (for one term only)
The discussion for peace process is now underway with EROs led by ASEAN but with China’s approval
ASSK will be included in the peace & political process but not NUG.
In Myanmar, China has 6 cards to play, all in its hand: USWA, MNDA, TNLA, AA, MAH and a Joker. Who wants to be the joker? Or sit on the opposite side and just watch the shuffle.
Myanmar can never have a full-blown western style democracy. It is a wishful thinking or a naivety or a deliberately playing politics for self interest. It just doesn’t suit the geographical location, the characteristic of the people and political landscape.
China can easily walk into Taiwan tomorrow. The US cannot fight two wars at the same time especially Taiwan is a lot further away from the US bases. Or the Chinese PLA invades Myanmar?
A new way of thinking is warranted from progressive, intellectually and politically savy people to find the best way to deliver the result- be with Trump or be with China, with democracy or without democracy. Or risk the revolution and ASSK. Where does your conscience lie?
NUG acts as a de facto government, mandated by the 2020 election. It has been lobbying with western powers to be recognised but failed. During that time it created a vacuum in the revolution that no one existed to formulate and lead the political direction and the road map.
@mintommy1993 I don’t see how things can be changed- the game is almost set and done. NUG still believes their role is only to keep the status quo as a past-elected government and still waiting to be recognised by the intl. community. What else they have done if I am missing something?
Vietnam’s GDP growth in the past 10 years is 6-8% on average and is one of the fastest growing economies in the region. Vietnam is an authoritarian country, ruled by a single party. In Myanmar neither the military nor the revolution has good leadership quality, except ASSK.
MAH will happily go along with Trump to raid the scam centres and hand over the criminals to the US. That’s exactly what he did for China. Why do people think Trump likes to remove MAH?
Th thought of Trump coming to Myanmar to topple MAH shows the desperation of the people. This will never happen, Never.
Trumps will only go into the regions where there is no superpower- America, Middle East and Africa. Myanmar is shielded by China, Russia and India.
One can simply transplant democracy in a country like Myanmar where majority of people are struggling on a daily basis to feed their families is not practical. It was tried but failed for whatever reason and now back to authoritarian system of the worst kind.
Some argue that Myanmar has been under the authoritarian system for so long that only the democracy can bring the positive changes-a naivety. In Asia authoritarian or semi-authoritarian political systems boosted the economy to a point where only then democracy can be established.
Is democracy a luxury of elitist class? I personally wouldn’t want to live under the Chinese political system but I admit I belong to elitist class.
For my fellow Myanmar citizens who live in Myanmar, would they prefer democracy over the improvement of their daily lives?
Myanmar’s political strategy is now dictated by China. First to sideline MAH, a donkey who brought instability to its border and beyond, then installation of a new administration, then start a national reconciliation excluding NUG unless NUG can align with China.
After nearly 5 years it is now obvious and accepted that the revolutionary war in Myanmar is a war of attrition. In any war of attrition the party that has a political strategy will win. The history is full of examples.
When you have no or little leverage and you keep demanding what others should do for you then you are living in a delusional world. And, there is no such thing as neutrality in politics if you want something from someone, especially from superpowers.
In politics it is not about who you like and who you don’t like. It’s about what leverage you have and how to achieve what you want to achieve. That’s the quality of leadership.
For Myanmar revolution it has been nearly 5 years and the approach has been activity-led, as admitted by Daw Zin Mar Aung. She also admitted that it was a mistake and a failure. Now, it’s for strategy-led. In this context China cannot be excluded. Please tell us.
In an increasingly polarised world where do you like you stand? Do you stand in the middle or left or right or somewhere in between? For Myanmar revolution where do you think it should stand? Do you get the same answer?