Dr. Peter Scoblic

Event Horizon Strategies, @metaculus, @NewAmericaISP. Former @newrepublic @SenateForeign @ForeignPolicy @HarvardHBS @Kennedy_School.

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

I am enormously excited to announce that I will be writing a book on the history of decision-making for Simon & Schuster!

[New America @NewAmerica]

The U.S. is facing a “new nuclear age.” How might we think differently about nuclear weapons to better prepare for tomorrow?

In a new report, @NewAmericaISP's @peterscoblic explores and challenges expectations of future nuclear dangers.

🔗 https://t.co/6xKtSGC9dT

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

“we are finite, limited creatures living in a world of constraints and stubborn reality.” https://t.co/16q7Z1DI2a

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@ArmsControlWonk I think the more apt comparison is to Munich. Or maybe it's the Marshall Plan.

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

I may be biased since Carl has supported my work, but I thought this interview with @MakingSenseHQ was great. It's hard to talk about everything from Los Alamos to Ukraine and actually say anything valuable-but he did. I strongly recommend a listen.

[Carl Robichaud @CarlRobichaud]

It was a pleasure to talk to @MakingSenseHQ about the ongoing threat of #nuclear war.
We’re in a uniquely dangerous time, and it’s more important than ever that we try to tackle these risks.
https://t.co/B2ThGJVTXK

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@DefenseBaron How'd your 13yo respond? *(Asking for a friend...)

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@AmyCEdmondson @simonschuster @AtriaBooks Congratulations, Amy!

[The Messenger @TheMessenger]

The Powerful Lesson of Second Place | Opinion https://t.co/LQwotwsNlM

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@antwier @UnderSecT @SecBlinken @StateISN Congratulations, Anthony!

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@MilenaRodban For sci-fi and adjacent: The Doomsday Book by @cwcrosstalk; The Atrocity Archives by @cstross; The Rook by @DenimAlley; Daemon by @itsDanielSuarez; Gideon the Ninth by @tazmuir; The Murderbot Diaries by @marthawells1. Also, anything else by these folks.

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@james_acton32 Occasionally, in a relationship, you need space. One space.

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@EvansRyan202 @TXNatSecReview Thanks, Ryan!

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

Sometimes headlines do not refer to the thing you think they're referring to...
https://t.co/Ib7YZmR1uN

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@mchorowitz Congratulations, Mike!

[Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock]

Colossal team effort, led by Ezra Karger, to run the first Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament:
https://t.co/KAadrOkXaW
Many follow-up questions but a big one is: why was it so hard for AI experts to persuade superforecasters to move their skeptical priors on long-run AI experts?

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

A nice piece from @arthurb making the case for humility. Information is not knowledge, let alone wisdom. https://t.co/PXR277RrcB

[NTI @NTI_WMD]

Are you interested in shaping the future of biosecurity? The 2023 Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition is searching for creative policy proposals that promote biosecurity in emerging bioeconomies. Join the competition and be part of the solution! https://t.co/FMIvsLSCT9

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@DefenseBaron My parents subscribed, I subscribe, my son fell in love with the environment via NatGeo Kids, and we've spent many hours in the DC museum. No, the whole organization is not disappearing, but what a blow--and a terrible signal about Disney's priorities.

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

This is an immensely depressing move from an institution dedicated to exploration and explanation of the natural and cultural worlds, at the very moment when we need more of both. https://t.co/BL40FTpM8o

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

@DouglasBShaw Deterrence. 60% of the time, it works every time. https://t.co/jC3ZYlDmRb

[Dr. Peter Scoblic @PeterScoblic]

A wonderful/terrible example of vague verbiage. Any guesses as to what probability Powell actually has in mind? (cc: @PTetlock @mjmauboussin)