On February 21st I warned my clients of the coming war.
On February 28th, the US attacked Iran.
Since then I've said one thing: this conflict lasts longer than anyone wants to believe.
On March 5th I said: buy Frontline ($FRO), Petrobras ($PBR) and Suncor ($SU), among others.
They are up 61%, 51% and 25% since. The S&P 500 is up 14%.
On September 26th I called for re-escalation. We are in the middle of it right now.
My thesis today: the market trades the headlines and stays blindly optimistic, while the trouble and risks are higher than ever.
My confidence has gone up and down, which I shared openly. It is now very high in this trade.
I get calls wrong too. I cut them fast and I say so. I seek maximum transparency, but sometimes I do screw it up.
It's not how often you're right or wrong but how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong.
On X, I post every day on the biggest trade I can find, before it becomes consensus.
Right now, it's the energy complex. I call it "The Big Long".
You should follow me if you want to join me in finding alpha or die tryin'.