The @Polymarket odds on the gov shutdown ending are starting to even out between the 12th-13th
This market resolves on OPM data. Last gov shut-down the OPM announced the government open the day after the house vote (jan 26, 2019)
Tomorrow the House is scheduled to vote late in the day
I believe there is a lot of value on the Gov re-opening on the 13th via the OPM
Its always a Friday Night when your making money🤝
(always read the rules 👀)
$APU showing first signs of a bounce
Holding the bottom range nicely small moves incoming first
But momentum can flip quick once it clears resistance at 0.0002660.
Targets are modest for now… but an ATH retest isn’t off the table. 🚀
Betting on sports is fun, but being able to win in sports betting is hard
@Polymarket has opened up the flood-gates and made it easier for casual betters to get an edge
How to win in sports betting so your GF stops getting mad at you Pt 1 🧵
Who said that betting pre-season was only for degens?
I just absolutely spanked this @Polymarket line on the @Suns to beat the @Lakers for -122 (American odds) against @Pinnacle -153
Got 5.85% +EV against the sharpest sports-book
For the first time ever you can now bet on a company's quarterly earnings without worrying about stock price volatility
@Polymarket changed the game forever with their earnings markets 🧵
Smacked a nice line on @Polymarket for the @Cubs to win against the Padres
Got the Cubs or -104 (American)--51c against @Pinnacle price of -113
Got a nice 1.96% edge against sharpest sports-book for MLB
Nice little 2.66% realized for the sports portfolio
MMing sports at +EV with zero fees is literally free money over a long enough time frame
Everyone who trades on @Polymarket should be doing this
Only on @Polymarket can you get a 2.66% edge (Pre-match) on the sharpest sports-book in the game @Pinnacle
Got the Yankees for -170 going into the game
Just keep stacking +EV and you win long-term 🤝
$PCULE -> $PMX
first ever prediction market launchpad built on @solana
Telegram trading bot for @Polymarket and PM launch pad with one token to represent both 🤝
Finding mis-priced markets on @Polymarket can be hard if you don't know how to look at it
Sometimes just doing some back of the napkin math can provide an edge🧵
Let take a deep dive into a "NATO x Russia military clash in 2025 market":
.@Polymarket gave birth to what is known as the garage-band market-maker 🧵
Market-making is no longer gatekept by the big players. The stage is now open for everyone
Fantastic clip
As the regulatory moat expands for more PM companies the Market-making wars will really begin.
SIG and @Citadel are already positioned for sports:
-> They have sports models / have ample liquidity / strong price discovery / smart order-flow to study etc
But its going to take awhile before SIG and @Citadel start making lines on if @taylorswift13 is pregnant lmao
I think any garage-band market-maker (John doe) should be studying niche sub-sectors on @Polymarket
As liquidity become less scarce I can see a day where there will be big prop funds that build a moat in being an expert in very niche/rare topics