$UBER market cap is now $134B, they have approx $2-3B of net debt and they're expected to generate $8-10B of FCF through year end... we'll just call that $126B enterprise value assuming the stock price stays flat for the next 5+ months.
$WAYMO (owned by Google) just raised a $16B funding round earlier this year at a $126B valuation.
$UBER has approximately 10,000,000 drivers and couriers across 15,000 cities
$WAYMO has approx 4,000 robotaxis across 12 cities
Over the next 12 months..
$UBER is expected to do $65B of revenues
$WAYMO is expected to do $1B of revenues
It's kind of crazy these two companies now have the same valuation... $UBER trading at 2x NTM revs while $WAYMO raised capital at more than 350x ARR (they were reportedly doing $350M revs in Q1) but it goes to show that investors are focused on the future and who will win the robotaxi race. Clearly there's some Waymo investors willing to pay a hefty multiple whereas the market has turned sour on Uber given the lack of details around their robotaxi strategy and the possibility they begin losing market share.
I'm not an Uber shareholder so please correct me if I'm wrong but I believe they have ~20 robotaxi (AV) partners including Rivian, Lucid, Nuro, AVride, Zoox, Nissan, Stellantis, etc
Uber has made strategic investments into several of them... some of which are already doing pilot programs across the US and maybe Europe but we still don't have real details on the timelines or economics for bigger robotaxi deployments through $UBER.
$UBER has 200+ million customers so they're the top dog in distribution and should be the leader in robotaxi deployments but they need to get their act together and start making things happen because it seems like Waymo and Tesla won't be waiting around.
I've taken a Waymo before and loved it.
I'm hoping to take a Tesla Cybercab this weekend in Miami.
I've been using Uber for many years and it's a great service but I'm still excited for them to roll out robotaxis in Boston, NYC and Miami (where I spend most of my time) especially if it brings the prices down.
*We have no position in $UBER or $GOOG at @FirstWaveFund
Please feel free to share your thoughts on $UBER or robotaxis. I find this debate very interesting because I honestly don't know who the winner will be over the next 5+ years.
$UBER is cheap.
– Pelosi bought calls
– Ackman has 15.7% of his portfolio in it
– David Tepper nearly tripled his stake to ~6.3 million shares
Use this information however you want.
Cheap good service business
+
Holding company with 20y CAGR of 17%, with excellent capital allocation record
+
massive cash pile (47% of mark.cap)
Add a big fat discount to all that ✅
$MBB.SE in short
Cheap good service business
+
Holding company with 20y CAGR of 17%, with excellent capital allocation record
+
massive cash pile (47% of mark.cap)
Add a big fat discount to all that ✅
$MBB.SE in short