Dan Pickering

Founder, Chief Investment Officer of Pickering Energy Partners...comments are not investment advice

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

Talking Iran this morning with Bloomberg's @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie - Hormuz, the inevitable price decline (when peace hits), the risk that price ($125/bbl) impacts demand, China flagged tankers. Good stuff. starts at 31 mins. #EFT #OOTT

https://t.co/rSeVY3O1As

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@NewsFinOil

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@EnergyPeddler Amen

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@willrayvalentin

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@johnarnold Never…or only in the depths of a bear market. Which we haven’t had in a while. And it wasn’t only individuals buying aftermarket.

The unlocks are going to be brutal with people sitting on massive gains and exit price not that important to them compared to simply getting out

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

Iran Video Series #17 - Round Two of US/Iran conflict is underway. What is the staying power of both sides? And is China headed back to normal imports or will they keep drawing down their internal inventories? Bye bye glue narrative for now. #EFT #OOTT

https://t.co/unY01JayCz

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@wealthwoworry It escalated today with the blockade threat. If the blockade actually happens, the oil shorts have to cover as the North Star (oil thru the strait) will have the physical market tightening. Getting “interesting” again.

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@EnergyCynic Very tired

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

This was a worthwhile read

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I’m still sitting here thinking this whole setup isn’t nearly enough to flip everything.

Look, oil mkt was heavily tilted short, and the street was already pricing in a technical dead-cat bounce, so this violent short squeeze isn't exactly catching anyone off guard.

I’m not betting the house that Trump drops a TACO print automatically. The ball is 100% in Tehran's court. With the US officially shouting out a maritime blockade refresh, Iran has to punch back. Sitting on their hands right now means lighting whatever leverage they have left on fire.

If Iranian barrels get choked out, the textbook playbook for them is to hold their leverage hostage by capping everyone else’s inbound and outbound lanes. Where their pain threshold actually sits, though, is anyone's guess. But let’s be real—flimsy headline blockades, symbolic drone strikes on US outposts, and minor tanker skirmishes aren't going to move the needle anymore.

If Iran actually goes hot and starts hammering GCC infrastructure or executes a bulletproof, total lockdown of the Red Sea—bc let’s face it, that hasn't cleanly hit the tape yet—that’s your structural runway to macro escalation. If they push it that far, even Trump will eventually have to map out an exit strategy.

You guys can talk about the math all day, but trust me, I run the same models. The only reason my PnL took a hit in that final month was because that exact math completely flatlined on me.

Strictly speaking, if a hull catches fire and Hormuz goes dark again, the tape should be screaming $150 oil. But the street has massive scar tissue from watching the market effortlessly fade geo-headlines in the past, so the money is naturally going to gravitate right back toward that short-bias default.

We need a smoking gun here—an absolute tail risk print that no desk can handwave away. Either Iran puts real kinetic heat on regional infrastructure to cause undeniable physical damage, or the US-Tehran back-and-forth morphs into total, unhedged warfare.

Without that kind of tail-event acceleration, keeping crude pegged at these highs is going to be a massive uphill battle. Bottom line, looking at the tape over the last few months, the current catalyst mix just isn't getting the job done. Though to be fair, we’ve got two massive wildcards sitting out there—one bull, one bear.

The bull case: China. Beijing knows the West’s strategic buffer is completely running on fumes. They could easily weaponize the tape, push crude into a massive squeeze, and put the squeeze on the US administration. Granted they left that trade on the table last time, but you can’t cross it out.

The bear case: Trump's TACO. The exact monster everyone in this room is staring at. Let’s be real—Trump could jump on social media right now, print a single line saying 'Not everyone has to pay,' and you'd instantly see $4-5 washed out of crude.

When the dust settles on this squeeze, macro funds are going to need a bulletproof thesis to stay long the front of the curve. Everyone on the street still has PTSD from the consecutive VaR shocks and the TACO traps we just went through. Holding paper longs here takes a serious amount of delta-courage.

We need a total smoking gun here. It might sound completely unhinged, and ppl can point fingers at me all they want, but let's be real—haven’t we all taken enough pain over the last few months to learn our lesson?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, and you're officially a co-conspirator.

Let's watch the tape play out.

#oott #iran

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@ThomasD98040 The world is gonna shift to trying to get less oil from "risky" places..and Middle East is more risky until they develop export routes that don't go thru a Strait. So a natural outcome is need for more offshore barrels. Long way of saying Yes to your question.

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

Iran/US conflict and oil markets - where are we? Trying to find a peace process, but Iran not letting go of its primary leverage point - Strait of Hormuz. Tit-for-tat strikes (up until earlier this week) being mostly ignored by markets. Oil glut narrative gaining traction.

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

@mikeyroom Does seem like classic Trump, so when he TACO's on it, it will be "giving a gift" to the people of the world.

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

News today is US blockade re-imposed. seems like last arrow in the quiver unless/until US ready to go back to all out kinetic activity. Oil +9% to $78 finally figuring out this situation isn’t done yet. Trump comments on 20% protection fee should be ignored as bullpoo. #EFT #OOTT

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

Haven't written a long Iran-centric post since all this started 4+ months ago. Guess its time..TLDR version: Iran dynamic will be a wild card for at least another 3 months, anything below $75/bbl WTI is too cheap, watch Hormuz, inventory, China. Read on for the thread! #EFT #OOTT

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

Iran fires on vessel in Strait of Hormuz and declares the Strait is closed.

Meanwhile, at the White House, because it is only Saturday (and everybody knows that peace breaks out on Sunday an hour before the crude oil markets open):

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

On energy lags S&P point, I'll be very happy to be wrong as I'm as bullish about the sector as I've been in several years. But 30%+ of the S&P500 refuses to be wagged by energy's 3%. Good luck out there everyone.I look forward to your observations on my comments above! #EFT #OOTT

[Dan Pickering @pickeringenergy]

My base case? Iran situation lingers, Hormuz flow below "normal" for rest of 2026, market generally ignores unless forced to pay attention, China demand normalizes, WTI averages $75+/bbl for the next 2+ years, energy earnings decent, energy sector lags market until tech cracks.