Polepole

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@BrettErickson28 @ianbremmer This is a completely delusional take that ignores the damage Iran has taken in one of the most asymmetric conflicts of all time.

The US could take Iran if Iran gives them the excuse to do so. US has lost basically no people or equipment so far

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@IranNuances Iran are dragging it out for unknown reasons. They know they cannot act like Somali pirates long term

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@pati_marins64 Militarily Iran got annihilated so it’s not that

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@BrettErickson28 This has been one of the most one sided asymmetric conflicts by casualties of all time.

The US has the means to win easily, but the appetite less clear

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@BrettErickson28 @brett_mcgurk No it’s simply the casus belli for returning to hot war

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@BrettErickson28 @brett_mcgurk Nothing in the MOU can give Iran the right to fire cruise missiles at civilian ships in international waters.

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@gbrew24 Turning off the lights in Tehran imposes real tangible pressure for every civilian ship targeted

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@BrettErickson28 @P_dubya_S Nothing in the MOU can give Iran the right to fire cruise missiles at civilian ships in international waters.

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@IranAmbPak @laurnorman This is the dumbest take. Nothing in a bilateral MOU gives Iran the right to launch cruise missiles at civilian ships in international waters.

You did not gain Hormuz through war, you have always been situated right next to it with the option to mine and attack at your peril

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@JoshYoung They can for a few days but they don’t have the means to sustain a blockade

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@amir_harati @gbrew24 Houthis were badly burnt and have done very little since

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@Vmaxpax You can see a small sub on the pier

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@laurnorman This time the US appears to be more serious about keeping Hormuz open without Irans agreement.

Iran will lose most of its leverage if that’s successful

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@gbrew24 Won’t work

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@ErikFossing So that NATO completely breaks down?

Rutte is known to support in public and push back in private, as he should because he is not an idiot.

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@gbrew24 He will wait till it’s less likely to impact midterms

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@gbrew24 The regime has no leverage beyond nuisance value. If they overstep the mark they will justify a genuine annihilation.

Given their history of overplaying their hand it is not our do the question

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@ksadjadpour Iran tried it twice before in the last 18 months and both times achieved getting bombed

[Polepole @Polepolehak]

@Rory_Johnston He’s keeping the pressure on while waiting for Iran to make a mistake.

He wants more regional and global buy in if he has to go kinetic again, unprovoked attacks on shipping and neighbours will help