political puzzles

pontificate on political matters

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Post-war general elections, a thread.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@residentadviser Are you thinking May 2027? I thought autumn but leaning May now.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@lxeagle17 Do you think the Senate is going to be in play? Increasingly feels that way.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@RealLiv04 and the coalition only comprises 250 seats so it’s a minority anyway.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@RealLiv04 Lib-Lab coalition but Libs are the bigger party.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@LeeDavidEvansUK @richardmarcj Looking forward to it!

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Starmer will be out by next year.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Keir Starmer has suspended Brian Leishman, Chris Hinchliff and Neil Duncan Jordan for "organising on the welfare rebellion and other insurrection"

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@robfordmancs 🎉 🎉

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@robfordmancs Any hints on when we can expect the 2024 general election book? 👀

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

@AaronBastani Do you think he’s survives May next year?

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Reason Plaid and not Ref even if Ref bigger is that there are more anti-Ref votes in the Senedd than Ref-friendly votes unless there is a complete tidal wave (Ref > 35% in votes) - Lab Senedd members would be enough to prop up a Plaid FM even on 15% or so.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

If we keep seeing polls like this (YouGov was similar last month) in run-up to next year I think a Plaid minority govt with Reform as main opposition and either the largest or second largest party is the modal outcome.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Welsh Parliament Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (+28)
PLC: 27% (+6)
LAB: 18% (-18)
CON: 11% (-14)
LDM: 7% (+3)
GRN: 7% (+3)

Via @FindoutnowUK, 5-16 Jun.
Changes w/ 2021 Election [Regional].

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

🤯🤯🤯🤯

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Some benchmarks for this evening in terms of Tory losses
300+ (good, better than polls show)
500+ (terrible, they are where polls show they are)
650+ (worse than even polls show)

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Some benchmarks for this evening in terms of Tory losses
300+ (good, better than polls show)
500+ (terrible, they are where polls show they are)
650+ (worse than even polls show)

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Doesn’t tell us anything about 2029, even 2026. But would tell us what we already know - Labour in deep shit across 150+ seats in the North, and if they stay this unpopular Reform can easily cain that many seats from them. Of course things change rapidly in politics.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

Reform finally learning expectations management.
FWIW - Reform should take this seat given depressed Labour vote etc, anything to the contrary is a failure. But I think they will take the seat.

[political puzzles @Politipondering]

>20% chance Reeves doesn’t survive the year IMO - she’s staked herself to “October 2024 was a one off tax raising budget” so much I think it’s possible if shit hits the fan with tariffs etc and headroom goes the wrong way you’re looking at big manifesto breaches this October.

[G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris]

Trump's job approval rating is down to 44.9%, disapproval up to 51%, with new polls added today. That's a new low on net of -6, and he's fast approaching his historically unpopular position of -10 at this point in his first term.

Live updates here: https://t.co/oIgBi2dt8M

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Longdendale (Tameside) Council By-Election Result:

➡️ RFM: 46.6% (New)
🌹 LAB: 25.0% (-32.2)
🌳 CON: 12.4% (-10.6)
🌍 GRN: 12.1% (-4.7)
🙋 IND: 3.9% (New)

Reform GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2024.

[Liv @RealLiv04]

Reeves approval ratings are utterly diabolical with Yougov right now