Polycarp Market Research

Macro & Technical Markets : High-conviction analysis, scenario planning, edge through data + positioning. Not investment advice.

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

Introducing the new Polycarp Research Platform 📊

Find the best setups in the market with live dashboards of risk and opportunities, seasonal paths and technicals, and that isn't even the warm up. 👇

The trial is totally free, let me know what you think and hope you enjoy, cheers 🍿 (direct link in the comments)

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

AI analog... Railroads had three 30-50% drawdowns in late-1800s bull. Hartnett BofA

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

Per Citadel, yesterday was the 7th largest call-buying sessions on record among retail (and the largest in 2 years since January of 2025)

Meanwhile institutional options activity was overwhelmingly defensive, with clients monetizing and rolling downside hedges, noting little appetite to buy the dip

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 sector valuations... Staples almost 4 multiples pricier than Tech
Health Care at a premium to I.T. too @factset

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

FOMC next week ⏰

Hot Inflation
Cold Hiring
Growth?

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

@TheChartReport @greenlander00

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

$DIA Dow Jones Seasonals

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

$COGT — Nov. 30 PDUFA (GIST) and a second one Dec. 30 (non-advanced SM), with advanced SM on Jun. 29, 2027. PEAK doubled PFS where ripretinib couldn't beat sunitinib. Base $32, roughly the price; bull $82.

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

Biotech setups with upcoming catalyst can be a gift 🎁 during overall market pullbacks $XBI

Here are a few 🧵

$CYTK Nov. 14 FDA target date (MAPLE-HCM label update, monotherapy vs. metoprolol), Q3 on Nov. 4, nHCM sNDA filing in Q4. ACACIA worked where Bristol's ODYSSEY failed. Base $65 vs. a $105 Street average.

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

$BBIO — Nov. 27 PDUFA, Q3 on Oct. 29. FORTIFY: placebo slowed 0.10 m/s, treated patients gained. The stock trades on Attruby's switch-pool commentary; BBP-418 is the free option. Whole-company base $63.

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

Can semi’s hold here? Wouldn’t be the first time $SMH

Held 38 of 47 times its tagged this monthly support level

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Amazon withdraws plans for four data centers on the 122-acre former GWU Ashburn campus in Loudoun County after buying it for ~$427M

#MacroEdge

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

For the market voyeurs, here’s where the damage is being done. Some notable z-scores.

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

@MarkNewtonCMT

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

@Mr_Derivatives

[fxevolution @fxevolution]

Crazy Semiconductor Volumes...

Tech Stocks Crashing?

What is happening to markets? 👇👇👇

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

$GLD 🏀

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

@PharmD_KS

[PharmD_KS @PharmD_KS]

Maybe I should do a video specifically on trading bear trends. Most traders really struggle as it is NOT the same as flipping your chart upside down and treating it like an uptrend. If there’s interest . . .

I haven’t done anything like that for the community so maybe I’ll do a non paywalled version and then a more in depth version for the members’ starter kit or intro course🤔

[Polycarp Market Research @PolycarpFX]

@greenlander00 A good time to relax and let the setup come to us