Polyfactual

Weekly podcast on @Polymarket news + ecosystem developments.

Building deep research AI for prediction markets.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/Y5cmbDPpcG

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Tomorrow's stream: we're joined by @DG3_terminal the pro sports trading terminal for prediction markets.

$25 Million in trading volume and counting, as sports takes over prediction markets.

We'll break down the final days of the World Cup, plus some surprise updates for Polyfactual.

We'll be live on X at 10:30AM EST, Thursday.

[DG3 @DG3_terminal]

Trading on FIFA World Cup Semi-Final: France vs Spain https://t.co/AfQuKdxmqF

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Looks like multiple conditions are starting to align at the same time for a full market send from here.

BTC stabilizing around $65k, volume in the trenches is not only growing but the amount of participants growing to high numbers again, the social layer of CT is also coming back together like old times and we’re starting to see new narratives gain some ground

Now, whether we get a major bull run from here is still to be seen but certainly the conditions are starting to look right.

Existing narratives / niches like Prediction Markets are inevitably going to get a refreshed boost as volumes continue to grow and players across major markets like sports continue to get onboarded. We saw the effect with World Cup and now about to see the Premier League, etc resume

The major edge tho is whilst everyone is focusing on expected niches to see huge boosts due to volume growing, finding opportunities where the market at large haven’t discovered for the most part yet is where the gold mine really is.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@KnightPredict A true English fan!

We’ll see if he’s right soon enough

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@polykinder @bananagun I agree with you, but still, who do you have in the finals?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

World Cup Golden Boot Race: Post-France Update

Spain's win over France completely shook up the Golden Boot market on Polymarket

🇫🇷Mbappe (8G, 3A) has slipped to second place at 37% on @bananagun

while 🇦🇷Messi (8G, 2A) is now leading at 51%

In today's 🇦🇷Argentina vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England semifinal, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham (both with 6G, 1A) will take the field

Their current odds are 9% and 5%

To actually get back in the race, they need at least two goals and an assist today, or a hat-trick.

A simple brace won't cut it because they are behind on assists

Today's match will decide how this wraps up:

Scenario 1: Argentina Wins

- Messi goes to the final against Spain. Spain's defense has been super solid this tournament, making them really hard to score on

- Mbappe ends up in the 3rd-place match against England, leaving him with only one game left

Scenario 2: England Wins

- Messi and Mbappe will face off in the 3rd-place game. This sets up a direct, one-game battle for the Golden Boot

- Kane or Bellingham will make it to the final against Spain, where scoring will be much harder than in the wide-open bronze medal match

Messi leads on Polymarket mainly because he has two games left, while Mbappe has only one. Spain's defense has proven very difficult to break down, which limits scoring opportunities in the final

The 3rd-place match is generally played in a more open manner, but the biggest factor remains the number of matches each player still has left

P.S. Trading World Cup markets on Banana Gun this month?

You're automatically in for a slice of the active $25k prize pool, with $5k reserved just for tournament activity

Who do you have winning today: 🇦🇷 or 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Mbappe leads the Golden Boot race: but can Messi or Kane still catch him?

Mbappe: 8 goals, 3 assists, 563 minutes
Messi: 8 goals, 2 assists, 608 minutes
Kane: 6 goals, 1 assist, 627 minutes

Right now on @bananagun : Mbappe is around 56%, Messi at about 35%, Kane at just 4.2%

🇫🇷Mbappe

He currently has the best tiebreakers thanks to more assists and fewer minutes played

He only needs one goal in the remaining matches to put himself in a very strong position to win the Golden Boot

🇦🇷Messi

To win, he needs to outscore Mbappé from this point forward. His price tends to move quite a bit depending on whether he scores

A goal in the semifinal would give him a noticeable boost

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Kane

He trails by two goals and loses all tiebreakers. He needs 2-3 goals while Mbappe and Messi blank

A single goal offers a short-term price pump, but his overall odds remain a massive longshot

Mbappe is clearly in the best position, Messi's chances depend heavily on his own output, and Kane needs things to go almost perfectly for him

By the way, if you're trading World Cup markets through Banana Gun this month, there's a $25k reward pool running, including $5k specifically for World Cup activity

Which of these three outcomes do you think is most likely?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@KnightPredict @bananagun Yeah, imagine if they put on a goal fest

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@AlenaChramtsova @bananagun To be honest, that's hard to believe

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@slem1337 @Polymarket Do you think it’ll be a high-scoring game?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@mahera777 @Polymarket @PolymarketSport legend for sure

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@korenssss @FIFAWorldCup @Polymarket Closer to the game, more major holders will start popping up. It'll even be interesting to watch

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@KyleDeWriter Mind-blowing result

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@luntych13 gl man

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@bored2boar 👀👀

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@polykinder sharp money

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@vijn_crypto Unfortunately, there's always a risk of sudden injury

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@fort1kkk @bananagun This market has caught a lot of attention today, including mine

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@magsimich Amazing result!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@mopozeuX @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade It's all over my feed today! It’s actually fire

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

@bananagun Very nice payday for the traders that nail this

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

The next phase of prediction markets is permissionless event contract creation.

It unlocks an entirely new class of PM users: creators

@choice_markets is building for this future.

The opportunity could be as big as meme coins.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

"He just rugged us for $5,000. I couldn't believe he would do that."

@choice_markets founders on getting burned by a top Polymarket KOL and why they'd never structure a KOL deal the same way again