SAN FRANCISCO JUST DECLARED AN EL NIÑO EMERGENCY
Polymarket: 69% it's the strongest El Niño on record. NOAA's forecast points higher
would you buy "record" at 69¢?
> the record is RONI +2.40, set in 1982-83. 1997-98 peaked at 2.28, 2015-16 at 2.25
> this one is ahead of 1982's pace: 1.69 in Jul-Sep, 1982 was at 1.14
> NOAA's October 8 outlook: 83% chance Oct-Dec alone hits +2.5 or more
> the case for NO: 1997 was even hotter in Jul-Sep at 1.84 and stalled at 2.28
> resolves YES once NOAA prints any season above 2.40
> $100 on YES at the 70¢ ask pays $143. only about $230 sits on the asks before the next one at 90¢. keep it under $200 or your fill jumps
[ https://t.co/DmLJFbV4kw ]
NOAA's outlook implies 83%+, the market says 69%. who's right?
SAN FRANCISCO JUST DECLARED AN EL NIÑO EMERGENCY
Polymarket: 69% it's the strongest El Niño on record. NOAA's forecast points higher
would you buy "record" at 69¢?
> the record is RONI +2.40, set in 1982-83. 1997-98 peaked at 2.28, 2015-16 at 2.25
> this one is ahead of 1982's pace: 1.69 in Jul-Sep, 1982 was at 1.14
> NOAA's October 8 outlook: 83% chance Oct-Dec alone hits +2.5 or more
> the case for NO: 1997 was even hotter in Jul-Sep at 1.84 and stalled at 2.28
> resolves YES once NOAA prints any season above 2.40
> $100 on YES at the 70¢ ask pays $143. only about $230 sits on the asks before the next one at 90¢. keep it under $200 or your fill jumps
[ https://t.co/DmLJFbV4kw ]
NOAA's outlook implies 83%+, the market says 69%. who's right?