Sotorami

Degen | @ethereum researcher | Prediction Market

[Sotorami @sotoramix]

SAN ANTONIO ARE 0–2
THE MARKET STILL GIVES THEM AN 87% CHANCE IN DALLAS

That price needs more explanation than “Wembanyama will bounce back”

Polymarket has Spurs at 87c and Mavericks at 14c

Dallas are dealing with a much bigger problem than their opponent’s reputation

Cooper Flagg injured his shoulder against Indiana and is reported out
Dereck Lively II is also unavailable

That removes a major offensive option and a rim protector from a team playing its second game in two nights

Without Lively, more of the responsibility for handling Wembanyama falls on Daniel Gafford

San Antonio have their own absences, including Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance, and their opening two losses should stop anyone treating this as automatic

The matchup supports the Spurs
The price demands much more certainty

At 87c, a winning share earns 13c before fees
A losing share costs the full 87c

One upset erases the profit from nearly seven wins bought at that price

Dallas being shorthanded explains the favorite
It does not automatically make 87c a bargain

[zvezario @zvezario]

ONE MADE SHOT
SIX BLOCKS
65% TO BEAT HOUSTON

Wembanyama's opener was a reminder that he can wreck possessions even when his own shots refuse to fall

He went 1-for-13 against Oklahoma City, blocked six shots and added a steal

San Antonio still lost 116-104

Houston arrive after beating Dallas 128-110, yet Polymarket has the Rockets at 36c against the Spurs at 65c

The challenge for Houston is getting good shots without repeatedly driving into Wembanyama

VanVleet's return gives them an organizer, Sengun can help move the ball through the middle and Durant can score without reaching the rim

I want to see them force Wembanyama into several decisions within the same possession

The bigger uncertainty is Fox

He is questionable with a wrist issue, and his availability changes how quickly San Antonio can attack before Houston get set

Adams and Sheppard are also questionable for the Rockets

Houston at 36c interests me more if Fox sits

Wembanyama will probably shoot better, but that alone does not settle a matchup against this many offensive options

[Sotorami @sotoramix]

@zvezario thx for qt bro

i agree with your take

[Sotorami @sotoramix]

$1.59M ON CHELSEA TO WIN
FROM A WALLET WITH $7.2M IN PROFIT ACROSS JUST 22 MARKETS

joseph00677 is holding 3,034,841 YES shares on Chelsea beating Tottenham

Average entry: 52.3c
Cost: approximately $1,586,205

A Chelsea win would return roughly $3,034,841 — about $1.45M in profit if held through settlement

A draw or Tottenham win would lose the entire stake

We have seen this wallet before on Arsenal

That October 18 position now appears in its biggest wins at +$1.59M, alongside +$1.54M on Real Madrid and +$1.30M on Atletico Madrid

The profile shows $7.20M in all-time profit and 45.5M in total trading volume since joining in October

Its Chelsea position is currently worth $1.56M against approximately $1.6M in total open positions shown on the profile

That makes this a highly concentrated position in the displayed portfolio

It is also down around $23,262, with Chelsea trading at 51.5c in the screenshot

Our earlier research preferred Chelsea at 51c but highlighted the goalkeeper change as a concern

This wallet entered at a higher average price and is carrying that uncertainty with almost $1.6M at risk

The previous wins are substantial

Chelsea still have to deliver this one

Wallet: https://t.co/JULFWwwWLd

[safru @safruw]

SIX STRAIGHT WINS AGAINST SPURS
CHELSEA GET JUST 51% TO MAKE IT SEVEN

Chelsea at 51c
Tottenham at 25c

Chelsea have scored seven goals across their last two league games, beating Bournemouth 5-1 and Everton 2-0

Spurs finally got their first league win of the season against Coventry, but Stamford Bridge is a much tougher test of that recovery

The detail stopping me from treating Chelsea as an obvious pick is in goal

Emiliano Martinez is out after surgery on a fractured jaw, with Mike Penders expected to start

Chelsea only just ended a 22-game Premier League run without a clean sheet

One shutout does not establish defensive reliability, especially with a goalkeeper change immediately afterwards

Tottenham have problems of their own

Bentancur is suspended, while Xavi Simons and Bergvall are among the absentees

That makes controlling the spaces around Palmer more difficult, particularly if Chelsea keep Spurs defending near their own box

I prefer Chelsea at 51c because their recent attacking performances give them the stronger case

But I would expect Spurs to test Penders early and challenge Chelsea's buildup

The six-game winning streak is a good hook

Whether Chelsea can protect their new goalkeeper is the more important question tonight

[LeGate @williamlegate]

Our new revshare program is now rolled out to every Polymarket affiliate enrolled in our Dub program.

Partners are reporting their email inbox being blown up with unexpectedly high earnings — “help, I am being financially DDOS’d”

Many are saying this is the new meta. Enjoy!

[Financial Dystopia @financedystop]

Just invest and forget it

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

Someone just made $169,000 on Tesla's Roadster car flying 🤯

This is insane

[Sotorami @sotoramix]

@liquidatedxxx @Polymarket 👍

[CoinMarketCap @CoinMarketCap]

LATEST: ⚡️ MSCI has adopted a rule barring "non-operating companies" from its Global Investable Market Indexes, a change that could remove Strategy and Metaplanet from its benchmarks.

[Sotorami @sotoramix]

@Polymarket $130 next week?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Brent crude soars above $110 per barrel for the first time since May.