safru

trading edge for magic internet money | @Polymarket

[safru @safruw]

Tier of prediction markets

i’ve divided prediction markets into tiers

as selection criteria i looked at trading volume and the number of markets

S-tier:
@Kalshi / @Polymarket
A-tier:
@joinearlybird / @MyriadMarkets / @trylimitless / @Truemarketsorg / @PredictBase / @SX_Bet / @joustlabs_ / @FORE_Predict / @dripit_io / @onit_fun
B-tier:
@seer_pm / @foresightnow / @9livesso / @opinionsdotfun / @triadfi / @multiplierfun
C-tier:
@precogmarket / @kash_bot / @hypiq_fi / @noise_xyz / @xomarket / @PicassoMarkets / @panana_predict / @BodegaCardano

[safru @safruw]

11 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GAMES UNBEATEN
PSG GET JUST 28% AGAINST CITY

The back-to-back European champions head to Manchester at 28¢ on Polymarket
City cost 51¢

That gap is what caught my attention

PSG opened this campaign with a 6–1 win over Slovan
They also led matchday one for high turnovers, with seven of those recoveries producing a shot

That’s where I see their chance tonight
Win the ball close to City’s goal and they can create chances before the defence gets organised

City have a strong answer

They just won 3–0 at Anfield, although Liverpool were down to 10 men
They also beat Porto 2–0 in their European opener

And PSG have never won away at City
Four visits, one draw, three defeats

So I understand the home advantage but 28¢ still interests me more than 51¢

Their last meeting finished 4–2 to PSG after City went two goals ahead
That doesn’t predict tonight’s result, but it shows how quickly this matchup can turn

My lean is PSG at this price
The draw is the obvious danger — keeping that unbeaten run alive wouldn’t necessarily pay this position

[safru @safruw]

$23.1K PROFIT BACKING BRAZIL HE PAID 73¢ FOR THE WIN

Velin217 held 86,340 shares on Polymarket Roughly $63K committed at that average entry

Brazil delivered The position paid out around $86.3K
He’s traded $2M in volume across 107 markets since joining in August This was his biggest recorded win

At 73¢, he was risking almost $3 for every $1 of potential profit One wrong result would have wiped out the entire position

His profile shows +$42K in PnL over the past day Around $23.1K came from Brazil

Yet his all-time PnL stands at +$17.5K This single win is bigger than his total net profit to date

Would you put $63K behind a 73¢ favorite?

His wallet: 0x9a5e78f769d30fb320f084ed64d58fcbc09acd58

[safru @safruw]

@banan_crypto @Polymarket was it the real clicks?

[safru @safruw]

@Atlantislq how do u think how many insiders are there

[safru @safruw]

@CryptoMavka it's sp big!

[safru @safruw]

HE JUST BEAT ALCARAZ IN STRAIGHT SETS
POLYMARKET GIVES HIM ONLY 34%

Zizou Bergs costs 34¢ against Tommy Paul in Shanghai
Paul is the favorite at 67¢

The upset makes Bergs tempting but their last meeting is hard to ignore

Paul beat him 6–1, 6–2 at Indian Wells in March
Same surface, just three games conceded

He also arrives after beating defending champion Valentin Vacherot 6–4, 6–2
So both players have earned their place here

My lean is Paul because I expect his return and movement to make Bergs work harder for quick points
If he can keep neutralizing the first attack, I like his chances in the longer exchanges

Bergs has a real counterargument

He beat Alcaraz 7–5, 7–6 and reached the quarterfinals here last year
These conditions clearly suit him

If his serve keeps Paul out of return games, a couple of tight sets could make 67¢ look expensive

I’m taking Paul to win
The March score supports that pick but I expect a much closer match this time

[safru @safruw]

$23.1K PROFIT BACKING BRAZIL HE PAID 73¢ FOR THE WIN

Velin217 held 86,340 shares on Polymarket Roughly $63K committed at that average entry

Brazil delivered The position paid out around $86.3K
He’s traded $2M in volume across 107 markets since joining in August This was his biggest recorded win

At 73¢, he was risking almost $3 for every $1 of potential profit One wrong result would have wiped out the entire position

His profile shows +$42K in PnL over the past day Around $23.1K came from Brazil

Yet his all-time PnL stands at +$17.5K This single win is bigger than his total net profit to date

Would you put $63K behind a 73¢ favorite?

His wallet: 0x9a5e78f769d30fb320f084ed64d58fcbc09acd58

[safru @safruw]

$23.1K PROFIT BACKING BRAZIL HE PAID 73¢ FOR THE WIN

Velin217 held 86,340 shares on Polymarket Roughly $63K committed at that average entry

Brazil delivered The position paid out around $86.3K
He’s traded $2M in volume across 107 markets since joining in August This was his biggest recorded win

At 73¢, he was risking almost $3 for every $1 of potential profit One wrong result would have wiped out the entire position

His profile shows +$42K in PnL over the past day Around $23.1K came from Brazil

Yet his all-time PnL stands at +$17.5K This single win is bigger than his total net profit to date

Would you put $63K behind a 73¢ favorite?

His wallet: 0x9a5e78f769d30fb320f084ed64d58fcbc09acd58

[safru @safruw]

9 GAMES THIS SEASON
9 WINS FOR BARCELONA

Polymarket gives them a 78% chance of making it ten in Istanbul
Barca cost 78¢ against Galatasaray

I’m leaning toward the away win but the hosts’ recent performances matter more to me than the streak

Galatasaray lost 4–0 to Trabzonspor before the international break
They then needed two late goals to beat Kasimpasa 3–1
Their Champions League opener also ended in a 3–1 defeat at Sporting

That gives me reasons to question whether they can contain Barca for 90 minutes

Flick’s side opened in Europe by beating Feyenoord 5–1 and arrive after a 3–0 win over Getafe

I expect Barca to create enough chances if they can play through the initial pressure and keep Galatasaray defending for long stretches

There are reasons to be careful at this price

Raphinha and De Jong are unavailable
Osimhen has returned from an adductor injury, giving the hosts a threat if Barça leave space behind

At 78¢, a draw is enough to lose the entire position
Being the better team won’t be enough

My pick is Barcelona to win in 90 minutes
I’d keep this to the outright result rather than chase a bigger winning margin

[safru @safruw]

@valon_anon @bagel_win congrats with profit
how did you count it?

[safru @safruw]

9 GAMES THIS SEASON
9 WINS FOR BARCELONA

Polymarket gives them a 78% chance of making it ten in Istanbul
Barca cost 78¢ against Galatasaray

I’m leaning toward the away win but the hosts’ recent performances matter more to me than the streak

Galatasaray lost 4–0 to Trabzonspor before the international break
They then needed two late goals to beat Kasimpasa 3–1
Their Champions League opener also ended in a 3–1 defeat at Sporting

That gives me reasons to question whether they can contain Barca for 90 minutes

Flick’s side opened in Europe by beating Feyenoord 5–1 and arrive after a 3–0 win over Getafe

I expect Barca to create enough chances if they can play through the initial pressure and keep Galatasaray defending for long stretches

There are reasons to be careful at this price

Raphinha and De Jong are unavailable
Osimhen has returned from an adductor injury, giving the hosts a threat if Barça leave space behind

At 78¢, a draw is enough to lose the entire position
Being the better team won’t be enough

My pick is Barcelona to win in 90 minutes
I’d keep this to the outright result rather than chase a bigger winning margin

[safru @safruw]

ONE GOAL IN FIVE LEAGUE GAMES
NOW COVENTRY FACE NEWCASTLE WITHOUT AWONIYI

Polymarket gives Newcastle around a 45% chance to win
At 45¢, that’s the side I’m looking at

Coventry have lost four of their opening five games
One goal scored
Ten conceded
And Awoniyi is suspended for this one

My case for Newcastle starts with what happens when Coventry try to get out

Without that option up front, I expect it to be harder to hold the ball and give their defence a break
If Newcastle can keep recovering possession, the pressure should build

Coventry also have fitness questions around Van Ewijk and Eccles
Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are unlikely to be ready

But Newcastle haven’t exactly been shutting teams down either

Nine scored and nine conceded in five league games
Only two wins

That’s enough to stop me treating Coventry’s poor start as an automatic away win
One set piece could give the hosts something to defend

Joelinton returning to training is encouraging but I’d check the lineup before assuming he starts

I lean Newcastle to win in 90 minutes at 45¢
The draw is the result I’m most wary of

[safru @safruw]

ONE GOAL IN FIVE LEAGUE GAMES
NOW COVENTRY FACE NEWCASTLE WITHOUT AWONIYI

Polymarket gives Newcastle around a 45% chance to win
At 45¢, that’s the side I’m looking at

Coventry have lost four of their opening five games
One goal scored
Ten conceded
And Awoniyi is suspended for this one

My case for Newcastle starts with what happens when Coventry try to get out

Without that option up front, I expect it to be harder to hold the ball and give their defence a break
If Newcastle can keep recovering possession, the pressure should build

Coventry also have fitness questions around Van Ewijk and Eccles
Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are unlikely to be ready

But Newcastle haven’t exactly been shutting teams down either

Nine scored and nine conceded in five league games
Only two wins

That’s enough to stop me treating Coventry’s poor start as an automatic away win
One set piece could give the hosts something to defend

Joelinton returning to training is encouraging but I’d check the lineup before assuming he starts

I lean Newcastle to win in 90 minutes at 45¢
The draw is the result I’m most wary of

[safru @safruw]

@zvezario he def knows sth

[safru @safruw]

@nofadsec @Polymarket i've seen this trader so many times

[safru @safruw]

ONE GOAL IN FIVE LEAGUE GAMES
NOW COVENTRY FACE NEWCASTLE WITHOUT AWONIYI

Polymarket gives Newcastle around a 45% chance to win
At 45¢, that’s the side I’m looking at

Coventry have lost four of their opening five games
One goal scored
Ten conceded
And Awoniyi is suspended for this one

My case for Newcastle starts with what happens when Coventry try to get out

Without that option up front, I expect it to be harder to hold the ball and give their defence a break
If Newcastle can keep recovering possession, the pressure should build

Coventry also have fitness questions around Van Ewijk and Eccles
Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are unlikely to be ready

But Newcastle haven’t exactly been shutting teams down either

Nine scored and nine conceded in five league games
Only two wins

That’s enough to stop me treating Coventry’s poor start as an automatic away win
One set piece could give the hosts something to defend

Joelinton returning to training is encouraging but I’d check the lineup before assuming he starts

I lean Newcastle to win in 90 minutes at 45¢
The draw is the result I’m most wary of

[Bimba @BimbaCrypto]

🧠 POLYMARKET RIGHT NOW: 22,029 ACTIVE MARKETS AND ALMOST HALF OF THEM ARE SOCCER

Snapshot from 2026-10-11 06:15 UTC.

> 22,029 live markets.
> Soccer Competitions and Industry: 9,681 markets (43.9%).
> Asset Prices and Measured Values: 3,933 markets (17.9%).
> Elections and Political Selection: 1,724 markets (7.8%).

Soccer is not just the biggest category. It is larger than the next five combined. Asset prices (the crypto/finance stuff everyone talks about) is a clear second. Politics is third and already smaller than most people assume.

THE FULL STACK

> Soccer: 43.9%
> Asset Prices: 17.9%
> Elections/Politics: 7.8%
> Team Sports (non-soccer/cricket): 7.3%
> Individual Sports & Racing: 7.1%
> Esports & Gaming: 3.2%
> Weather/Climate: 1.7%
> International Relations: 1.6%
> Public Figures: 1.5%
> Cricket: 1.4%
> Governance: 1.1%
> Others: 5.5%

Sports overall (soccer + other team sports + individual + cricket + esports) is well over 60% of the entire platform. The prediction market that got famous on politics and crypto is currently running on football matches and 5-minute BTC windows.

WHAT THIS ACTUALLY MEANS

> The volume and activity that keeps the books liquid is no longer primarily election nights or Fed meetings.
> It is continuous, high-frequency sports resolution - especially soccer - plus the constant stream of asset price markets.
> Politics is still there, but it is no longer the center of gravity.
> The bots we keep seeing (the 5-minute BTC grinders, the multi-book sports stackers) are not outliers. They are operating in the two largest, most liquid slices of the platform.

22,029 markets. Almost half of them soccer. Asset prices second. Everything else fighting for the remaining third.

Polymarket in October 2026 is a sports-and-crypto prediction machine that still has a politics section.

[safru @safruw]

@luntych13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport this match is rly interesting

[safru @safruw]

HE WON SHANGHAI FROM QUALIFYING
POLYMARKET NOW GIVES HIM JUST 40%

Valentin Vacherot is back defending his title but Tommy Paul is the favorite at 61¢

I get the appeal of Vacherot at 40¢
He already proved he can go all the way on these courts

Paul gives me more reasons to back him today though

He opened with a 6–2, 6–2 win over Vallejo and has 40 wins this season
He’s also reached the fourth round in both previous Shanghai appearances, so this is familiar territory for him too

Vacherot had to work harder against Baez
He served for the match at 5–3, lost that advantage and eventually closed it out in a tiebreak

That doesn’t mean he’ll struggle on serve today
It does make Paul’s return game the part of this matchup I’m most interested in

I expect Paul to get enough balls back to make Vacherot earn his service games
If he can turn second serves into longer exchanges, I like his chances of creating openings

Vacherot’s recovery against Baez is the counterargument
He handled a messy finish and still found a way through

My pick is Paul at 61¢
I’m backing his return and movement to make the difference

[safru @safruw]

$2,066 PROFIT FROM A 1–1 DRAW
JUVENTUS DIDN’T WIN
HIS POSITION DID

Polymarket trader sbimbg put $13,932.76 into Cagliari NO at an average entry of 87.1¢

The position returned $15,999.07
Net profit: $2,066.31
Return: +14.83%

The final whistle settled it
Cagliari 1–1 Juventus

Cagliari came into this game with four wins in five league matches and just two goals conceded

They earned another point at home but that was enough for sbimbg to collect

He already had around $170K in all-time Polymarket profit
Previous wins included $104K across 33 markets tied to Spain’s World Cup outcome and $32K on a Brest match market

Here he paid a premium to have the draw on his side
That extra protection ended up deciding the trade

Juventus YES went to zero
His Cagliari NO position finished up $2K

His wallet:
0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b

[safru @safruw]

@mmoyshaa he's cooking

[safru @safruw]

$2,066 PROFIT FROM A 1–1 DRAW
JUVENTUS DIDN’T WIN
HIS POSITION DID

Polymarket trader sbimbg put $13,932.76 into Cagliari NO at an average entry of 87.1¢

The position returned $15,999.07
Net profit: $2,066.31
Return: +14.83%

The final whistle settled it
Cagliari 1–1 Juventus

Cagliari came into this game with four wins in five league matches and just two goals conceded

They earned another point at home but that was enough for sbimbg to collect

He already had around $170K in all-time Polymarket profit
Previous wins included $104K across 33 markets tied to Spain’s World Cup outcome and $32K on a Brest match market

Here he paid a premium to have the draw on his side
That extra protection ended up deciding the trade

Juventus YES went to zero
His Cagliari NO position finished up $2K

His wallet:
0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b

[safru @safruw]

4 WINS IN 5 GAMES
POLYMARKET GIVES CAGLIARI JUST 14% AGAINST JUVENTUS

Two goals conceded all season
Three clean sheetsм
And they’re hosting this match

At 14¢, that deserves a closer look

Cagliari have won four of their first five games but scored only five goals
That leaves very little margin for error
One defensive mistake can change the entire game

Juventus arrive off a 2–0 win over Atalanta, with Zhegrova producing two goals and an assist across his last two league appearances

My case for Juve: they have more ways to create the breakthrough
Cagliari’s plan depends heavily on keeping the score tight, then finding an opening on the counter

There’s a catch

Juve have won only TWO of their last five Serie A meetings with Cagliari
Spalletti himself highlighted how the hosts invite opponents forward before turning possession into quick attacks

That makes the first goal especially important
If Cagliari score it, Juve will have to chase against a side comfortable defending a lead

I still lean Juventus to win in 90 minutes at around 62¢ but this looks closer to a narrow win than a comfortable away performance

[safru @safruw]

@nofadsec @Polymarket this match is gonna be rly interesting

i also did a research on it

[safru @safruw]

@mmoyshaa he should know sth

[safru @safruw]

@mmoyshaa @parimatch rakeback is rly sth new for such predictions

[safru @safruw]

@CryptoMavka @bagel_win good combo!

gl