zvezario

thoughts on anything tradable | $100 to $10k challenge

[zvezario @zvezario]

@banan_crypto @Polymarket bro read ur messages pls

[zvezario @zvezario]

BEATEN 3–0 BY CITY
STILL 69% TO WIN IN AUSTRIA

Liverpool head to LASK without Isak, Gakpo and Szoboszlai

Three absences that make 69¢ worth questioning
Especially with four games packed into 10 days

But LASK aren’t arriving with much momentum either

Four matches without a win
A 2–0 home defeat to Rapid Vienna last time out
A 1–0 loss to AEK in their Champions League opener

My lean is still Liverpool

I expect them to control more of the ball and force LASK into long stretches of defending
The concern is how much that possession produces with several attacking options missing

An early goal would let Liverpool dictate the pace
Stay level deep into the second half and the pressure shifts onto the visitors

LASK at 13¢ looks tempting on the screen
Their recent performances give me little reason to chase the upset

Liverpool to win is my pick
A comfortable scoreline is harder to trust

[jitsy @notjitsy]

14 GOALS SCORED, NONE CONCEDED
FEYENOORD STILL GET JUST 32%

Three straight league wins since the 5–1 loss to Barcelona
7–0 against Zwolle
5–0 against Utrecht
2–0 against AZ

Now they host Como at De Kuip
Polymarket still makes the visitors favorites at 43¢

Como earned some respect by beating Leipzig 4–1 on their Champions League debut
But they’ve since gone two league games without scoring
Moise Kean is also missing from the travelling squad

That makes Feyenoord’s price interesting to me

Six wins and two draws in the league
Hadj Moussa and Nacho Ferri have already combined for 10 league goals

I’d look for Feyenoord to press Como early and attack the space behind their fullbacks
The risk is that Como play through that pressure and leave the hosts exposed

Domestic form doesn’t automatically translate to Europe
Barcelona already showed that

But this is Como’s first European away game
Winning at De Kuip is a different test from beating Leipzig at home

At 32¢, my lean is Feyenoord

[zvezario @zvezario]

@notjitsy i'm watching this match rn

[zvezario @zvezario]

3 MEETINGS, 3 SABALENKA WINS
POLYMARKET HAS HER AT 84%

Ann Li gets another shot in Wuhan
Sabalenka at 84¢
Li at 17¢

Three titles here already for Sabalenka
A fourth starts with an opponent she’s beaten every time

But their last meeting deserves a closer look

7–6, 6–4 in Miami
Li pushed the opening set to a tiebreak
Their Cincinnati match in 2023 went three sets

That 3–0 record has included some work

My lean is Sabalenka
I expect her return pressure to force Li into defending more points on her own serve

For Li, holding comfortably early would change the picture
Keep the first set tight and 84¢ could start feeling expensive

Sabalenka is the stronger pick to advance
The price already reflects most of that advantage

Would you pay 84¢ before the first ball or wait for a better entry?

[safru @safruw]

HE JUST BEAT ALCARAZ IN STRAIGHT SETS
POLYMARKET GIVES HIM ONLY 34%

Zizou Bergs costs 34¢ against Tommy Paul in Shanghai
Paul is the favorite at 67¢

The upset makes Bergs tempting but their last meeting is hard to ignore

Paul beat him 6–1, 6–2 at Indian Wells in March
Same surface, just three games conceded

He also arrives after beating defending champion Valentin Vacherot 6–4, 6–2
So both players have earned their place here

My lean is Paul because I expect his return and movement to make Bergs work harder for quick points
If he can keep neutralizing the first attack, I like his chances in the longer exchanges

Bergs has a real counterargument

He beat Alcaraz 7–5, 7–6 and reached the quarterfinals here last year
These conditions clearly suit him

If his serve keeps Paul out of return games, a couple of tight sets could make 67¢ look expensive

I’m taking Paul to win
The March score supports that pick but I expect a much closer match this time

[zvezario @zvezario]

8 STRAIGHT LOSSES IN ENGLAND FOR LILLE
NOW ARSENAL COST 81¢

Polymarket gives the home side roughly an 81% chance
Lille sit at 6¢

I lean Arsenal
The midfield is my main reason

Rice and Bruno Guimarães start
Eze and Madueke behind Gyökeres
Enough quality to keep Lille pinned back if the ball recovery is sharp

Lille are missing Tiago Santos
That makes the wide areas worth watching
I’d expect Arsenal to test his replacement early

But this isn’t Arsenal’s usual XI either

No Saka or Ødegaard in the starting lineup
Konsa partners Gabriel with Saliba unavailable

At 81¢, those changes matter
You’re paying for a team to win this game more than four times out of five

My concern is a slow opening
If Lille survive the early pressure, Arsenal could spend the second half forcing chances against a settled defence

Arsenal to win is my pick
Whether I’d pay 81¢ is the closer decision

[Siam @DeFx40]

Some special football matches are happening today.

And you know what that means... this is @polymarket time 🫰

Here are my 5 strong picks for today:

– Galatasaray vs Barcelona → Barcelona to win
– Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United → Atlético Madrid to win
– Arsenal vs LOSC Lille → Arsenal to win
– Inter Milan vs Club Brugge → Inter Milan to win
– Al-Sadd vs Al-Hilal → Al-Hilal to win

No random selections today, I know how these teams play and I selected the teams based on that.

Now the wins are just a matter of time and I'm too excited to see the results... 🧐

[zvezario @zvezario]

@cryptocinna WOW
this is something unusual

[zvezario @zvezario]

$1M IN PNL BETTING AGAINST A CRYPTO CRASH
THEN A $392K DRAWDOWN IN ONE WEEK

JnStrtPrdctnMrkts holds $3.9M in positions on Polymarket

Three of his open trades show what he’s betting on

BTC touching $55K before year-end → NO
Bought at 53.5¢ → now 91.5¢
+$269.6K unrealized

ETH touching $1,500 before year-end → NO
Bought at 62.1¢ → now 91.3¢
+$226K unrealized

ETH touching $2,250 before year-end → NO
Bought at 56.8¢ → now 51.5¢
−$54.6K unrealized

These positions don’t need new all-time highs
They need those downside levels to stay untouched through December 31

The entry prices are the interesting part
He bought the first two outcomes when the market was much less confident they would hold

Buying them above 91¢ today leaves a very different payoff

And these bets share a weakness
One sharp crypto selloff can hurt several positions together

His tracker shows +$256K over 30 days despite that $392K weekly drawdown
A profitable month with a rough week inside it

I’d watch how he manages the losing $2,250 ETH position from here

His wallet:
0x1465b79bff7992bc703e1aafb3683b1089647072

[Korens @0xKorens]

this bro made $59K trading BTC Up/Down markets, even though his average win is smaller than his average loss. here’s how ↓

profile: [https://t.co/BiSTdBIOPC]

the stats
→ +$59k net profit
→ $181 avg. position
→ $30k+ paid in fees
→ 1.78 profit factor

the strategy
→ mostly buys: he holds positions until resolution instead of trading in and out
→ 15-min BTC markets: almost all his recent volume comes from crypto, and he trades both Up/Down
→ small entries: he builds positions through multiple buys at prices 13¢-62¢

where’s the edge?

his average win is just 79% of his average loss, so he needs to win frequently to stay profitable

his reported win rate is 69.5%, compared with roughly 56% needed to break even based on his average entry price

he paid over $30K in fees, which consumed a large part of his gross gains

and because his losses are larger than his wins, even a small drop in accuracy could hurt his results

his strategy relies on winning frequently across thousands of BTC markets

the real challenge is maintaining that edge after fees and as market conditions change

[zvezario @zvezario]

$95.9K AGAINST A NEWCASTLE WIN
FROM A TRADER UP $1.7M ON POLYMARKET

Jsram bought Newcastle NO at an average of 55.1¢
A Coventry win or a draw gets him paid

His position would return roughly $174K if it settles in his favor
Around $78.1K in profit

He’s already sitting on a $4.6K unrealized loss
NO has slipped to 52.5¢ since his entry

His biggest recorded wins include
+$1.21M across two Argentina–Egypt markets
+$551K across Liverpool–Tottenham markets

That history makes the position worth watching
It doesn’t make this match a lock

The interesting part is the draw
Newcastle can control the game and still finish 1–1
That’s enough for his NO position to win

Would you back Newcastle or take the draw on your side?

His wallet:
0x83720820a8aa6c3f20ad71850e7a1a17d16c5223

[safru @safruw]

ONE GOAL IN FIVE LEAGUE GAMES
NOW COVENTRY FACE NEWCASTLE WITHOUT AWONIYI

Polymarket gives Newcastle around a 45% chance to win
At 45¢, that’s the side I’m looking at

Coventry have lost four of their opening five games
One goal scored
Ten conceded
And Awoniyi is suspended for this one

My case for Newcastle starts with what happens when Coventry try to get out

Without that option up front, I expect it to be harder to hold the ball and give their defence a break
If Newcastle can keep recovering possession, the pressure should build

Coventry also have fitness questions around Van Ewijk and Eccles
Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are unlikely to be ready

But Newcastle haven’t exactly been shutting teams down either

Nine scored and nine conceded in five league games
Only two wins

That’s enough to stop me treating Coventry’s poor start as an automatic away win
One set piece could give the hosts something to defend

Joelinton returning to training is encouraging but I’d check the lineup before assuming he starts

I lean Newcastle to win in 90 minutes at 45¢
The draw is the result I’m most wary of

[zvezario @zvezario]

VENEZIA HELD THEM TO 0–0 LAST TIME HERE
ATALANTA NOW COST 65¢ ON POLYMARKET

Around 65% for the home win
21¢ for the draw
16¢ for Venezia

I lean Atalanta but there’s a reason to look twice

Venezia used the international break to get several players back
Stroppa says they’ve had a better week of training with more of the squad available

He also admitted two problems remain
Preventing goals
Finishing chances

That’s where my case for Atalanta starts

I expect them to push Venezia back and force repeated defensive decisions
The visitors need to turn their own chances into something
Otherwise the pressure keeps coming

But three weeks without a league game makes the opening spell harder to judge
More possession won’t help Atalanta if the chances stay poor

The previous 0–0 is a reminder of that
Not a prediction of another one

My pick is Atalanta to win in 90 minutes
I’d leave the two-goal handicap alone

[zvezario @zvezario]

$170K IN ALL-TIME PROFIT.
HE DOESN’T NEED JUVENTUS TO WIN.

Polymarket trader sbimbg is the largest holder of “Cagliari NO” ahead of their clash with Juventus.

His position pays out $16,000 if Cagliari fail to win in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, provided he holds it through settlement.

Juventus win? It pays.
A draw? It pays too.

His track record includes $104K in profit across 33 markets tied to Spain’s World Cup outcome, plus another $32K on a Brest match market.

Now he’s taking the other side of one of Serie A’s strongest starts.

Cagliari have won four of their first five league games and conceded just twice. They’re at home, and Juventus have won only two of the teams’ last five league meetings.

That’s what makes the choice of market interesting.

He’s backing Cagliari to drop points, with the draw working in his favour.

The current NO price is around 87¢. That protection comes at a cost: a buyer at this price risks 87¢ to make 13¢ per share if held to a winning settlement.

Would you pay that premium to have the draw on your side?

His wallet:
0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b

[zvezario @zvezario]

31 HARD-COURT WINS
THREE TITLES
IS MEDVEDEV WORTH 85¢?

Polymarket gives him 85% against Svrcina in Shanghai
The qualifier sits at 16¢

Brisbane
Dubai
Hangzhou

Medvedev won all three this season
Nobody on tour has more hard-court wins

But Struff still took the opening set off him
Medvedev needed a 4–6, 6–4, 6–3 comeback to get through

Svrcina had an even longer afternoon
Nearly three hours against Etcheverry
Through 6–3, 3–6, 7–5

I expect Medvedev’s depth to make his next match harder
Fewer short balls
More work to finish each point

Still, 85¢ leaves little room for another sloppy start

I’m picking Medvedev to advance
I’d wait for a better price before buying
Would you take 85¢ before the first serve?

[Moysha @mmoyshaa]

A sports trader on Polymarket who has been trading since way back in 2025 has earned +$56,625 from his trades

He has made 1,597 trades in total, most of them on football and tennis, with a 57% Win Rate

What's interesting is that he correctly predicted the winners of recent major competitions such as the 2026 World Cup, Roland Garros and the US Open

Over the last 4 months, he climbed out of a -$20k hole and reached +$57k, earning $77k

His biggest wins of all time:

→ Spain win World Cup 2026? | Yes at 11.9¢ | $3,082 → $26,013 | +$22,931 (+743.88%)
→ Alexander Zverev win Roland Gaross 2026? | Yes at 23.9¢ | $4,838 → $20,215 | +$15,377 (+317.86%)
→ Alexander Zverev win US Open 2026? | Yes at 36.2¢ | $6,333 → $16,441 | +$10,108 (+159.62%)

He is still actively trading tennis and hasn't missed the well-known Shanghai Masters, already securing 12 wins there

His biggest wins at the Shanghai tournament:

→ Thiago Agustin Tirante at 59.2¢ | $4,084 → $6,896 | +$2,812 (+68.88%)
→ Felix Auger-Aliassime at 65.3¢ | $4,072 → $6,238 | +$2,166 (+53.22%)
→ Jan-Lennard Struff at 53¢ | $2,253 → $4,250 | +$1,997 (+88.67%)

And this is only the beginning, as he continues to build his positions in this tournament

His predictions for tomorrow's matches in Shanghai:

→ Pablo Carreno Busta at 26.7¢ | $1,706
→ Jiri Lehecka at 57¢ | $1,200
→ Dalibor Svrcina at 16¢ | $400

He is really interesting to follow because he isn't just another bot

He is a person just like us

It will be interesting to see how his open positions perform tomorrow

His results at Shanghai are worth following as the tournament continues

[zvezario @zvezario]

@cryptocinna well
this 10/10 was good

[zvezario @zvezario]

$170K IN ALL-TIME PROFIT.
HE DOESN’T NEED JUVENTUS TO WIN.

Polymarket trader sbimbg is the largest holder of “Cagliari NO” ahead of their clash with Juventus.

His position pays out $16,000 if Cagliari fail to win in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, provided he holds it through settlement.

Juventus win? It pays.
A draw? It pays too.

His track record includes $104K in profit across 33 markets tied to Spain’s World Cup outcome, plus another $32K on a Brest match market.

Now he’s taking the other side of one of Serie A’s strongest starts.

Cagliari have won four of their first five league games and conceded just twice. They’re at home, and Juventus have won only two of the teams’ last five league meetings.

That’s what makes the choice of market interesting.

He’s backing Cagliari to drop points, with the draw working in his favour.

The current NO price is around 87¢. That protection comes at a cost: a buyer at this price risks 87¢ to make 13¢ per share if held to a winning settlement.

Would you pay that premium to have the draw on your side?

His wallet:
0xf5198df69e13937a40d1c76d6f72d9aa067d906b

[safru @safruw]

4 WINS IN 5 GAMES
POLYMARKET GIVES CAGLIARI JUST 14% AGAINST JUVENTUS

Two goals conceded all season
Three clean sheetsм
And they’re hosting this match

At 14¢, that deserves a closer look

Cagliari have won four of their first five games but scored only five goals
That leaves very little margin for error
One defensive mistake can change the entire game

Juventus arrive off a 2–0 win over Atalanta, with Zhegrova producing two goals and an assist across his last two league appearances

My case for Juve: they have more ways to create the breakthrough
Cagliari’s plan depends heavily on keeping the score tight, then finding an opening on the counter

There’s a catch

Juve have won only TWO of their last five Serie A meetings with Cagliari
Spalletti himself highlighted how the hosts invite opponents forward before turning possession into quick attacks

That makes the first goal especially important
If Cagliari score it, Juve will have to chase against a side comfortable defending a lead

I still lean Juventus to win in 90 minutes at around 62¢ but this looks closer to a narrow win than a comfortable away performance

[zvezario @zvezario]

@Atlantislq a precedent for everyone

[zvezario @zvezario]

8 STRAIGHT WINS IN SHANGHAI.
DJOKOVIC WAS THE LATEST.

Hubert Hurkacz faces Zhou Yi next. The strongest argument for him is what happened on serve against Novak:

82% OF FIRST-SERVE POINTS WON.
6–4, 6–3. NO DECIDING SET.

That’s how Hurkacz can squeeze this matchup. Hold quickly, keep the scoreboard moving, and make Zhou serve knowing one poor game could cost him the set.

But the Djokovic result needs context.

SIX MATCHES IN TEN DAYS.

That was Novak’s workload. He looked physically below his best, so treating this win as proof that Hurkacz is back to his peak would be a stretch.

Hurkacz also retired from his Beijing semi-final with an adductor injury. Two wins here are encouraging. A prolonged fight would be a different test.

And Zhou has already earned some respect.

WORLD NO. 277.
JUST KNOCKED OUT MUSETTI.

He won that match in three sets. If he can protect his serve and drag Hurkacz into a tiebreak, the favourite’s margin gets thinner.

My lean is Hurkacz. My hesitation is how much to pay on Polymarket.

The serve makes the case. The recent injury sets a limit on the price I’d accept.

[safru @safruw]

4 TITLES THIS SEASON.
POLYMARKET HAS BEN SHELTON AT 72%.

The world No. 4 faces Arthur Gea in Shanghai, with Shelton priced around 72¢ and the Frenchman at 29¢.

I lean Shelton here. His 39–16 season and a Masters title in Montreal give him a stronger case than the ranking gap alone.

He opened against Daniel Altmaier with a 6–3, 7–6 win. My case for backing him starts with his serve: if it keeps him ahead in service games, Gea gets fewer chances to turn this into a baseline battle.

But Gea just beat Ugo Humbert 6–4, 3–6, 6–1. Winning that deciding set so comfortably deserves attention. He also has an ATP title this season.

And Shelton needed a second-set tiebreak against Altmaier. A similar finish today could leave the favourite only a couple of points from trouble.

At 72¢, I’d back Shelton to advance. Gea’s last round is why I wouldn’t stretch that into a straight-sets prediction.

[zvezario @zvezario]

5 GAMES. ZERO DEFEATS.
POLYMARKET GIVES LEEDS JUST 12% TO BEAT ARSENAL.

Leeds have conceded only three league goals this season. They arrive at the Emirates unbeaten, while Arsenal’s last outing ended in a 3–0 defeat at Brighton.

That makes the visitors worth a closer look. I still favour Arsenal.

Their last five Premier League home games: five wins, 10 goals scored, one conceded. That’s a stronger reason to back them than simply expecting a reaction to Brighton.

Arsenal also beat Leeds 5–0 and 4–0 last season. I wouldn’t project those scorelines onto a side defending much better now, but Leeds still have to prove they can handle this matchup.

The draw is the danger. Leeds have already drawn three of their five league games, and 12¢ on an away win doesn’t capture their chances of leaving with a point.

At 69¢, Arsenal need to win in roughly seven out of ten cases to justify the price.

I lean toward their home record holding up. Arsenal to edge it, with a tighter game than last season’s results suggest.

[zvezario @zvezario]

22 GOALS IN 8 GAMES.
WEST HAM’S ATTACK HAS ARRIVED.

Polymarket prices a West Ham win by two or more goals at 44¢. Against QPR, I’d be more comfortable backing the win than the margin.

The Hammers have won four of their last five league games. Even going 2–0 down at Millwall didn’t stop them leaving with a point.

QPR bring a different test: just seven goals conceded in eight matches, and no defeats in four away games.

They’ve also drawn their last three league fixtures. Keeping this tight is something they’ve already shown they can do.

West Ham’s vulnerability is at the other end. Only two league clean sheets means their attack may have to rescue them again.

I expect the home side to create enough to edge it, but QPR’s away record makes a comfortable win harder to justify.

West Ham to win is my lean. The two-goal margin asks more than I’m willing to back.

[zvezario @zvezario]

@banan_crypto For real

[zvezario @zvezario]

22 GOALS IN 8 GAMES.
WEST HAM’S ATTACK HAS ARRIVED.

Polymarket prices a West Ham win by two or more goals at 44¢. Against QPR, I’d be more comfortable backing the win than the margin.

The Hammers have won four of their last five league games. Even going 2–0 down at Millwall didn’t stop them leaving with a point.

QPR bring a different test: just seven goals conceded in eight matches, and no defeats in four away games.

They’ve also drawn their last three league fixtures. Keeping this tight is something they’ve already shown they can do.

West Ham’s vulnerability is at the other end. Only two league clean sheets means their attack may have to rescue them again.

I expect the home side to create enough to edge it, but QPR’s away record makes a comfortable win harder to justify.

West Ham to win is my lean. The two-goal margin asks more than I’m willing to back.

[Lutchyn @luntych13]

LENS VS LYON. FONSECA KEEPS PROVING HIS WORTH.

Lyon have faced problems at every level, but Fonseca keeps getting the maximum out of limited resources.

After missing out on the Champions League, he even wanted to leave. Yet he stayed, rebuilt the team and has Lyon fighting for a return to Europe’s biggest competition.

Lens, meanwhile, are struggling to find the form they showed last season. After selling key players and losing their head coach, this was always going to be a difficult campaign.

I really like what Fonseca is building at Lyon. I hope they secure a direct Champions League spot this season.

And if the players keep following his ideas, who knows? Maybe Lyon can even challenge for the title their fans have been waiting for.

My Polymarket prediction: Lyon to win.

[zvezario @zvezario]

ATLANTA LEADS 2–0.
POLYMARKET GIVES THEM 43% TO FINISH THE JOB TONIGHT.

The Dream are one win from the WNBA Finals. New York is fighting to keep its season alive.

Atlanta took Game 2 in overtime, 101–98, with Angel Reese and Jordin Canada scoring 23 each. Naz Hillmon delivered the go-ahead layup with 20.8 seconds left.

That gives me a reason to back Atlanta beyond the series score: several players have already delivered when a possession could decide the game.

But 2–0 can make this matchup look more comfortable than it is. The last game needed overtime, and now the series moves to Brooklyn. New York has a credible path back into it.

At 43¢, I lean Atlanta to close it out. They don’t need to dominate—another tight finish would do.

My pick for Game 3: Dream to take the win.

[V1nT @unvint]

Someone on Polymarket making insane money on Colleage football and NFL sports

Trader name mooseborzoii this traders is making crazy money on polymarket he created his account in september 29, 2026 ~ 11 days old

From that time he

- Placed 233 trades
- Made $40m in volume
- Secured +$1.4M of profit ~ peak was over $2m
- Biggest win +$899k

Where everyone is going on UFEA he think diffrent and go another direaction

Profile: https://t.co/bwJ60Dkq2a

[zvezario @zvezario]

@safruw this guy is printing

[zvezario @zvezario]

This is exactly how top traders should talk about their experience on a platform

It sells better than anything else

Not endless FUD and complaints - actual traders showing how they use the product and why it works for them

Really good to see the team putting in the work. They’re not comparing themselves to Hyperliquid for no reason

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

Polymarket has been pushing speed and performance improvements lately.

After using the site for a while now, I can say it has become noticeably faster, I have not experienced any lag at all and all annoying errors are gone

if you stopped trading because of this, consider trying out the site again