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jitsy
@notjitsy
professional internet user & prediction market geek
Joined April 2010
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621 Followers
56 Posts
MBAPPE, VINICIUS AND BELLINGHAM START
REAL MADRID GET A 51% CHANCE IN ROME
Mourinho returns to his old club with a strong lineup
Polymarket has Madrid at 51¢, Roma at 26¢ and the draw at 25¢
Roma have earned the respect
Seven competitive games unbeaten
Four wins, three draws
Donyell Malen already has six Serie A goals
This is a proper test for Madrid’s defence
Their 2–1 win over Inter came with chances conceded and mistakes from the opposition
What interests me tonight is how Madrid handle Roma’s pressure
Play through it and Vinicius and Mbappe can attack defenders before they’re set
Get trapped near their own box and Malen is exactly the striker they won’t want finding space
Valverde and Tchouameni start behind Bellingham
That gives Madrid a midfield I trust to compete for second balls and turn recoveries into attacks
My pick is Madrid at 51¢
Roma’s unbeaten start makes this competitive
I’m backing Madrid’s starting attack to decide the moments when the game opens up
14 GOALS SCORED, NONE CONCEDED
FEYENOORD STILL GET JUST 32%
Three straight league wins since the 5–1 loss to Barcelona
7–0 against Zwolle
5–0 against Utrecht
2–0 against AZ
Now they host Como at De Kuip
Polymarket still makes the visitors favorites at 43¢
Como earned some respect by beating Leipzig 4–1 on their Champions League debut
But they’ve since gone two league games without scoring
Moise Kean is also missing from the travelling squad
That makes Feyenoord’s price interesting to me
Six wins and two draws in the league
Hadj Moussa and Nacho Ferri have already combined for 10 league goals
I’d look for Feyenoord to press Como early and attack the space behind their fullbacks
The risk is that Como play through that pressure and leave the hosts exposed
Domestic form doesn’t automatically translate to Europe
Barcelona already showed that
But this is Como’s first European away game
Winning at De Kuip is a different test from beating Leipzig at home
At 32¢, my lean is Feyenoord
14 GOALS SCORED, NONE CONCEDED
FEYENOORD STILL GET JUST 32%
Three straight league wins since the 5–1 loss to Barcelona
7–0 against Zwolle
5–0 against Utrecht
2–0 against AZ
Now they host Como at De Kuip
Polymarket still makes the visitors favorites at 43¢
Como earned some respect by beating Leipzig 4–1 on their Champions League debut
But they’ve since gone two league games without scoring
Moise Kean is also missing from the travelling squad
That makes Feyenoord’s price interesting to me
Six wins and two draws in the league
Hadj Moussa and Nacho Ferri have already combined for 10 league goals
I’d look for Feyenoord to press Como early and attack the space behind their fullbacks
The risk is that Como play through that pressure and leave the hosts exposed
Domestic form doesn’t automatically translate to Europe
Barcelona already showed that
But this is Como’s first European away game
Winning at De Kuip is a different test from beating Leipzig at home
At 32¢, my lean is Feyenoord
ARSENAL AT 81%.
BARCA AT 77%.
AND ATLETICO ARE STILL ONLY 51%.
Three Champions League wins on @bagel_win.
3.09x.
All tonight.
Arsenal are 81% at home to Lille.
They already won their opening game in Naples.
That market is only $85k. Quiet for how clear it looks.
Barca are 77% in Istanbul. $337k sitting there.
Yamal is on the plane. Galatasaray already said they have a plan for him.
Atletico are 51% against United. That one is already at $683k.
The biggest market is the tightest one.
United have not beaten Atletico in years.
Arsenal should handle Lille at the Emirates.
Barca in Istanbul is the one that still makes me look twice.
If all three print, the slip is clean.
If one trips, it will probably be the 51%.
Which one do you not trust?
CLEVELAND WON 7–3
JUST A 45% CHANCE TO DO IT AGAIN?
That’s where Polymarket prices the Guardians for Game 2
Tampa Bay remain favorites at 56¢
I lean Rays here
Freddy Peralta is the reason
A 0.93 ERA over his last seven starts
That gives me more confidence in Tampa Bay keeping this close early
Cleveland’s current hitters have batted .184 against him across 43 career plate appearances
A small sample but an encouraging one
Parker Messick starts for the Guardians
His two ALDS outings lasted a combined 6⅔ innings
That’s where I see an opening for Tampa Bay
Long at-bats could push up his pitch count and bring Cleveland’s bullpen into the game early
Messick has held the current Rays roster to a .205 average across 75 plate appearances
So I’m not expecting Tampa Bay to score freely either
My pick is Rays at 56¢
I’m backing Peralta to give them the stronger start
ONE RUN IN GAME 1
55¢ TO BACK THE DODGERS IN GAME 2
Polymarket still makes LA the favorite against Milwaukee
Roughly a 55% chance to even the series
I lean Dodgers here, mainly because of Yamamoto
Seven innings of one-run ball against Atlanta last round
LA have won 10 of his 11 postseason appearances
My expectation is that he keeps this close enough for a few productive at-bats to decide it
But Henderson is a serious problem for that pick
He allowed just one earned run across 12 innings against the Dodgers this regular season
With 13 strikeouts
That makes me cautious about expecting LA’s offense to suddenly explode
They could get another excellent pitching performance and still spend the night chasing one run
At 55¢, I’m taking a narrow Dodgers win
I’d rather pay for the outright result than ask them to cover a run line
+$189K IN ONE WEEK
TOKOR’S BIGGEST SINGLE WIN IS $35K
That gap made me look closer
His Polymarket profile shows +$381.8K in total PnL across 1,319 markets
The account only joined in July
The tracker puts his last seven days at +$189K
Against +$216K over 30 days
Nearly 88% of that monthly gain came in one week
His larger results span several crypto markets
→ +$92.2K across 8 year-end ETH markets
→ +$69.1K across 20 year-end BTC markets
→ +$50.3K across 8 August ETH markets
Those are grouped results, not individual winning bets
September gives some context to the recent surge
He finished the month up $38.5K despite a $36.1K losing day and another down $32.5K
Now his open positions are worth $678K
That’s current exposure, not money already cashed out
The next thing I’d check is what’s driving the weekly jump
Closed trades, rising open positions, or both
His wallet:
0xa19cbababc312f9df185e49d7004c249ed1ade6b
A tennis trader made +$221,597 over the last week on Asian tournaments
Yesterday, he made +$29,947. He has only 377 trades in total and a Win Rate of just 37%
He has been actively trading for about a month, making around 10 trades per day on average
He is definitely a real person, not another trading bot
His biggest wins of all time:
→ China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa | Xinran Sun at 34.3¢ | $50,697 → $147,852 | +$97,155 (+191.64%)
→ Wuhan Tennis Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Sara Bejlek | Jasmine Paolini at 51.1¢ | $62,355 → $121,916 | +$59,560 (+95.52%)
→ China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Mirra Andreeva | Qinwen Zheng at 40.9¢ | $40,230 → $98,181 | +$57,951 (+144.05%)
As we can see, most of his success came during the Asian tennis tournament series
This is not surprising, since he has been actively trading for just over a month, and this is the tournament series taking place right now
The Shanghai Masters has already reached its halfway point, and so far, his results there have been quite average
He has 22 wins and 23 losses, but at the same time, he has made an incredible +$221K over the last week
His biggest wins in Shanghai:
→ Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima | Alexander Bublik at 47.9¢ | $27,485 → $57,319 | +$29,833 (+108.54%)
→ Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta | Pablo Carreno Busta at 20.4¢ | $6,126 → $29,670 | +$23,544 (+384.32%)
→ Arthur Fils vs Botic van de Zandschulp | Botic van de Zandschulp at 32¢ | $9,972 → $31,118 | +$21,145 (+212.05%)
After looking at all his wins at this tournament, I came to the conclusion that he often picked underdogs and made money from them
Most of his winning positions were priced between 20¢ and 40¢
And many of them were closer to 20¢
That is exactly why a record of 22 wins and 23 losses has still brought him such great results
Today, he has also entered two matches in Shanghai:
→Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik | Alexander Bublik at 29¢ | $10,512
→ Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 50¢ | $5,000
He continues to put big money on underdogs and believes they can win
As I write this post, Bublik has already lost the first set, making his chances of winning the match even smaller
Despite all this, I believe in our trader and wish him good luck today and for the rest of the tournament
ONE RUN IN GAME 1
55¢ TO BACK THE DODGERS IN GAME 2
Polymarket still makes LA the favorite against Milwaukee
Roughly a 55% chance to even the series
I lean Dodgers here, mainly because of Yamamoto
Seven innings of one-run ball against Atlanta last round
LA have won 10 of his 11 postseason appearances
My expectation is that he keeps this close enough for a few productive at-bats to decide it
But Henderson is a serious problem for that pick
He allowed just one earned run across 12 innings against the Dodgers this regular season
With 13 strikeouts
That makes me cautious about expecting LA’s offense to suddenly explode
They could get another excellent pitching performance and still spend the night chasing one run
At 55¢, I’m taking a narrow Dodgers win
I’d rather pay for the outright result than ask them to cover a run line
$14.3K PROFIT BACKING RUUD
HE BACKED THE UNDERDOG AND GOT PAID
This Polymarket trader bought Ruud at an average of 44.9¢ against Learner Tien
Roughly $11.7K committed
26,071 contracts
Ruud finished the job 6–4, 7–6(3)
Those contracts settled at $1 each
The second set went to a tiebreak
Ruud took it 7–3 and closed the match without needing a third
The wallet has $102.5K in all-time Polymarket profit across 143 markets
Its biggest single win stands at $26.2K
What caught my attention here was the size
Almost $12K behind a player priced below 45%
Would you have backed Ruud before the first serve?
$14.3K PROFIT BACKING RUUD
HE BACKED THE UNDERDOG AND GOT PAID
This Polymarket trader bought Ruud at an average of 44.9¢ against Learner Tien
Roughly $11.7K committed
26,071 contracts
Ruud finished the job 6–4, 7–6(3)
Those contracts settled at $1 each
The second set went to a tiebreak
Ruud took it 7–3 and closed the match without needing a third
The wallet has $102.5K in all-time Polymarket profit across 143 markets
Its biggest single win stands at $26.2K
What caught my attention here was the size
Almost $12K behind a player priced below 45%
Would you have backed Ruud before the first serve?
TIEN AT 56¢
RUUD AT 44¢
THEIR FIRST MEETING
Polymarket gives Learner Tien a 56% chance in Shanghai
Both came through their opening matches in straight sets
Tien beat Svajda 7–5, 7–5
Ruud beat Bu 6–1, 7–6
My reason to lean Tien is the lefty forehand
Crosscourt into Ruud’s backhand
Push him wide
Make him hit on the move before he can take over with his forehand
That’s the matchup I’d watch from the first few games
Ruud has a clear answer though
Land first serves and keep the points short
His 6–1 opening set against Bu is a reminder of how quickly he can get control
Two tight sets against Svajda don’t make Tien an obvious bargain either
I lean Tien at 56¢
Enough to prefer his side
Not enough to expect a comfortable win
TIEN AT 56¢
RUUD AT 44¢
THEIR FIRST MEETING
Polymarket gives Learner Tien a 56% chance in Shanghai
Both came through their opening matches in straight sets
Tien beat Svajda 7–5, 7–5
Ruud beat Bu 6–1, 7–6
My reason to lean Tien is the lefty forehand
Crosscourt into Ruud’s backhand
Push him wide
Make him hit on the move before he can take over with his forehand
That’s the matchup I’d watch from the first few games
Ruud has a clear answer though
Land first serves and keep the points short
His 6–1 opening set against Bu is a reminder of how quickly he can get control
Two tight sets against Svajda don’t make Tien an obvious bargain either
I lean Tien at 56¢
Enough to prefer his side
Not enough to expect a comfortable win
0 WINS. 10 TURNOVERS.
POLYMARKET GIVES DENVER 64% TO KEEP THE CHARGERS WINLESS.
The Broncos are around 64¢ against the Chargers at 37¢.
LA’s 0–4 record grabs attention. The offensive line is why I lean Denver.
Rashawn Slater: out.
Joe Alt: out.
Trevor Penning: out.
Justin Herbert has already thrown six interceptions. Now he faces Denver without both starting tackles and another option at left guard.
That gives the Broncos a clear opportunity: pressure Herbert before his receivers have time to get open.
But Denver have a serious problem of their own.
Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are BOTH out.
If Herbert gets protection, he’ll be attacking a secondary missing its two starting corners. That’s the strongest argument for the Chargers’ 37¢ price.
Bo Nix still has work to do, too. Both offenses rank in the NFL’s bottom 10 in EPA per play, and Sean Payton is taking back play-calling duties to get Denver moving.
I lean Broncos at 64¢, with modest confidence.
The matchup I’m backing is Denver’s pass rush against LA’s replacement tackles. If that pressure doesn’t arrive, this could get uncomfortable fast.
0 WINS. 10 TURNOVERS.
POLYMARKET GIVES DENVER 64% TO KEEP THE CHARGERS WINLESS.
The Broncos are around 64¢ against the Chargers at 37¢.
LA’s 0–4 record grabs attention. The offensive line is why I lean Denver.
Rashawn Slater: out.
Joe Alt: out.
Trevor Penning: out.
Justin Herbert has already thrown six interceptions. Now he faces Denver without both starting tackles and another option at left guard.
That gives the Broncos a clear opportunity: pressure Herbert before his receivers have time to get open.
But Denver have a serious problem of their own.
Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are BOTH out.
If Herbert gets protection, he’ll be attacking a secondary missing its two starting corners. That’s the strongest argument for the Chargers’ 37¢ price.
Bo Nix still has work to do, too. Both offenses rank in the NFL’s bottom 10 in EPA per play, and Sean Payton is taking back play-calling duties to get Denver moving.
I lean Broncos at 64¢, with modest confidence.
The matchup I’m backing is Denver’s pass rush against LA’s replacement tackles. If that pressure doesn’t arrive, this could get uncomfortable fast.
A sports trader on Polymarket has made +$90,310 in just 2 months and is already up today after backing Chelsea and Atletico Madrid
He has made 695 trades with a 59% Win Rate, and all of them have been on sports
Most of his activity is focused on League of Legends, football and Dota 2
His biggest wins so far:
→ Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | Yes at 48.9¢ | $27,707 → $56,707 | +$29,000 (+104.67%)
→ Invictus Gaming at 58.9¢ | $25,527 → $43,347 | +$17,819 (+69.8%)
→ G2 Esports at 66.1¢ | $31,454 → $47,569 | +$16,115 (+51.23%)
→ Invictus Gaming at 61.4¢ | $25,491 → $41,442 | +$15,951 (+62.58%)
Today, he has already made +$17,606 in profit, with two winning football trades:
→ Chelsea win | Yes at 54¢ | $17,000 → $31,465 | +$14,465 (+85.09%)
→ Atletico Madrid win |Yes at 54¢ | $3,182 → $5,889 | +$2,707 (+85.09%)
But he is not stopping there
He still has two active positions for today's matches:
→ Barcelona -1.5 spread at 75¢ | $8,888
→ Real Madrid win | Yes at 73¢ | $5,888
He has already picked one winner in La Liga today and seems ready to go for two more
Considering the current form of both teams, these positions look reasonable to me
I also expect Barcelona and Real Madrid to win comfortably
Let's see if he can finish the day with another strong result
Good luck to him and all the fans of Los Blancos and the Catalans!
5 LEAGUE GAMES. 5 CITY WINS.
POLYMARKET GIVES THEM 43% AT ANFIELD.
Liverpool are unbeaten this season. But look at who’s missing up front.
Isak: out.
Gakpo: out.
Ekitike: still unavailable.
Haaland, meanwhile, has been cleared to play.
That changes how I read this matchup. Liverpool can still press, create and make Anfield uncomfortable.
The question is who finishes the chances when three major attacking options are unavailable.
City won all three meetings last season, including a 4–0 FA Cup win with a Haaland hat-trick.
Useful context, though today’s team news matters more to me than last season’s scores.
There’s a real counterargument: City conceded three against Sunderland in their last league game. Liverpool don’t need their strongest attack to punish defensive mistakes.
Foden is suspended too. City arrive with problems of their own.
At around 43¢, I lean City to win in 90 minutes. The draw is the biggest threat to that pick: Liverpool can stay unbeaten and this position still loses.
I’d take City here, but I’d want to see Liverpool’s starting front line before committing.
11 GOALS IN 2 HOME GAMES.
POLYMARKET GIVES CHELSEA A 54% CHANCE TO BEAT BOURNEMOUTH.
Six scored. Five conceded. Stamford Bridge has already seen plenty of both.
Chelsea’s problem is obvious: they’ve conceded at least twice in every Premier League match this season. The 3–0 loss at Brentford made it three league games without a win.
So why lean Chelsea at 54¢?
Their attack has produced six goals in two home league matches, and Bournemouth arrive without a clean sheet—or a win—after five games.
I expect Chelsea to create enough chances against that defence. The harder question is how many they’ll need to convert.
Bournemouth don’t have to dominate possession to hurt a side making this many mistakes. An early away goal could turn the Bridge restless quickly.
That keeps my confidence modest. I favour Chelsea to outscore Bournemouth, but I’d leave the comfortable-win bets alone.
11 GOALS IN 2 HOME GAMES.
POLYMARKET GIVES CHELSEA A 54% CHANCE TO BEAT BOURNEMOUTH.
Six scored. Five conceded. Stamford Bridge has already seen plenty of both.
Chelsea’s problem is obvious: they’ve conceded at least twice in every Premier League match this season. The 3–0 loss at Brentford made it three league games without a win.
So why lean Chelsea at 54¢?
Their attack has produced six goals in two home league matches, and Bournemouth arrive without a clean sheet—or a win—after five games.
I expect Chelsea to create enough chances against that defence. The harder question is how many they’ll need to convert.
Bournemouth don’t have to dominate possession to hurt a side making this many mistakes. An early away goal could turn the Bridge restless quickly.
That keeps my confidence modest. I favour Chelsea to outscore Bournemouth, but I’d leave the comfortable-win bets alone.
Turning $25 into $2,382 on Polymarket is crazy
Someone hit a 4-leg college football combo today and I checked the trade history
He risked the entire $25 on four picks
• Utah State -> underdog
• Wyoming -> underdog
• BYU -> underdog
• GSV -> favorite
All four won even the three teams with lower chances pulled through
Sometimes the riskiest bets bring the wildest returns
How much have you turned your money into on Polymarket so far?
3 TITLES IN 4 YEARS.
ONE LOSS FROM GETTING SWEPT.
The Las Vegas Aces are down 0–2 to Golden State. Polymarket still gives them a 65% chance to win Game 3.
I’m interested in the other side at 36¢.
Golden State’s bench outscored Vegas 34–14 in Game 2. Tiffany Hayes supplied 21 points in just 16 minutes. That gives the Valkyries ways to score without asking the same starters to carry every possession.
They also survived the moment that could have flipped the series. Vegas took its first lead with two minutes left; Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton answered with crucial baskets.
The case for the Aces is real. They’re back home, A’ja Wilson is averaging 28.8 points this postseason, and Game 2 was only an 83–81 defeat.
I wouldn’t expect another 21 points in 16 minutes from Hayes. But Golden State’s depth gives me more confidence than the series score alone.
At 36¢, I’d take the Valkyries to end this tonight.
$1.2M ON A 277. THIRD SET, 6-6.
Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti. Shanghai Masters. Live on @bagel_win.
Zhou won the first, 7–6 in a tiebreak. Musetti took the second, 6–3. Now the third is 6–6. Musetti already took a medical timeout.
The book just collapsed. Musetti was 74¢ at 6–5. At 6–6 he is 55¢. Zhou is 46¢. $1.2M on the match.
Zhou is 21, from Beijing, ranked 277. Wildcard. This week he already beat Bellucci in three sets.
Musetti started the year at No. 5. Injuries dragged him to 25. At the US Open he lost to a player outside the top 100.
Home crowd. One set each. A tiebreak is next.
Does the wildcard take it, or does the old No. 5 walk out of Shanghai?
@zvezario which match are you waiting next?
@luntych13 for real
might be hard game for bublik
MACHAC HAS NEVER BEATEN BUBLIK.
POLYMARKET PRICES BUBLIK AT 66¢.
Two meetings, two wins for the Kazakh. But the details matter more than the headline.
Their only hard-court meeting went to a deciding-set tiebreak in Dubai. Bublik won their latest encounter in straight sets in Halle, on grass.
There’s an advantage here. There isn’t a history of easy wins on this surface.
Machac arrives after escaping Zhang Zhizhen 1–6, 7–6, 6–2 in Shanghai. He found a way through, but needed a second-set tiebreak just to stay in the tournament.
Bublik’s season record is 28–20, compared with Machac’s 14–14. That supports making him the favourite, though neither record screams certainty.
My lean is Bublik: I expect his serve to put more pressure on Machac to take the few return chances he gets.
At 66¢, you’re paying for roughly a two-in-three chance of winning. That feels more reasonable than calling this a steal.
My pick: Bublik to win. A close match would be no surprise.
djokovic is only at 65% on polymarket.
novak djokovic faces hubert hurkacz on october 9, and the market is giving djokovic a clear edge.
but the gap isn't as big as you might expect.
djokovic: 65%
hurkacz: 36%
total volume: $105.87K
here's what caught my attention.
even with djokovic favored
@Polymarket traders are still giving hurkacz a real chance.
tennis is one of those sports where a few key points can change everything.
are traders underestimating hurkacz, or is 65% a fair price for djokovic?
NO MBAPPÉ.
POLYMARKET STILL GIVES FRANCE ~65%.
France have beaten Belgium SIX times in a row.
Tonight, I’m picking them to make it seven.
The biggest reason goes beyond that record: Belgium are missing Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans.
That’s a major loss of creativity before an away game against a side that already beat them 1–0 last week.
France have their own problem. Mbappé is out, and they’ve scored exactly once in each of their three Nations League games.
But Michael Olise has stepped up.
He scored the winner in Belgium, then scored again in the 1–1 draw with Italy.
My read: France have enough quality to create the decisive chances at home, while Belgium’s midfield absences make it harder to consistently supply their attack.
The risk is another tight game. France haven’t been scoring enough to put opponents away, and a draw would sink the France YES position.
At around 65¢, I favour France — without expecting a comfortable win.
My pick: France to win.
Score prediction: 1–0.
Would you take France at 65¢?
france don’t need another statement win. they need to finish the job.
they’re top of the group on 7 points, belgium are right behind on 6, and now belgium come to paris without de bruyne and tielemans through suspension.
@Polymarket has france around 56¢ to win, so this isn’t some huge market mismatch. that’s actually what makes it interesting to me
belgium still have enough quality to make france uncomfortable, but they’re losing two of their most important midfielders.
france have also only scored once in each of their last three games. zidane’s team looks more controlled than explosive right now.
so i’m not chasing a big france handicap.
france to win
i’ll go 2-1 france, but tough win
and if olise scores again, we might have to start calling this his national team era.
DJOKOVIC LEADS 10–5.
POLYMARKET STILL MAKES MEDVEDEV THE FAVOURITE.
57¢ for Medvedev.
44¢ for Djokovic.
The history points one way. Recent form gives Medvedev a serious case.
Seven consecutive wins.
The Hangzhou title.
A 7–6, 6–3 victory over Cerundolo yesterday.
Now comes the toughest test of that run: a man who is 32–0 in Beijing.
My read is that Medvedev needs to keep his groundstrokes deep and make Djokovic work for attacking opportunities.
Leave the ball short, and Novak can take control. Keep him behind the baseline, and Medvedev has a route into the long exchanges he wants.
That could matter after Djokovic’s 2-hour, 35-minute battle with Zverev.
But fatigue alone isn’t enough reason to oppose Novak. He just came from a set down to beat the top seed, and he has won twice as many of their meetings as Medvedev.
I narrowly favour Medvedev’s current form.
My pick: Medvedev in 3.
57¢ looks like a price for a competitive match. I wouldn’t chase it much higher on these arguments alone.
Who wins: Novak’s return game or Medvedev’s baseline consistency?
32 WINS. ZERO LOSSES.
POLYMARKET GIVES DJOKOVIC ~44%.
Novak has never lost in Beijing.
Yesterday, I picked Zverev. Djokovic proved me wrong, winning 4–6, 6–4, 6–4 to extend that record to 32–0.
Now he faces Daniil Medvedev — winner of seven straight matches.
Polymarket has Medvedev at 57¢ and Djokovic at 44¢.
Here’s why I narrowly favour Medvedev.
Novak just spent 2 hours and 35 minutes beating Zverev. Medvedev came through Cerundolo in straight sets, 7–6, 6–3.
My concern is the turnaround: can Djokovic reproduce yesterday’s level against an opponent who can keep extending rallies?
Medvedev has plenty of recent mileage himself after winning Hangzhou. But I think his consistency from the baseline can make this another physically demanding match for Novak.
The strongest argument against my pick? Djokovic leads their rivalry 10–5, and yesterday showed exactly why writing him off is dangerous.
My pick: Medvedev to win, narrowly.
Score prediction: Medvedev in 3.
At 57¢, he needs to win more than 57% of the time to justify the entry before fees. This is a close call.
Would you take Medvedev at 57¢ or Novak at 44¢?
An $86B token is generating less revenue than Polymarket
Polymarket made $9.9M on the last weekend. When HL only $2.64M
But the more interesting part came after
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan hinted that he may have something to announce about it at Token204
That sounds a lot less like commentary on revenue and a lot more like a tease
Polymarket has already made its US push. The product is scaling. Revenue is there
The obvious thing still missing is POLY
Last weekend’s revenue:
Polymarket: $9.9m
Hyperliquid: $2.64m
$HYPE is an $86 billion token 🧐
113,000 SHARES ON ZVEREV.
BETTING AGAINST DJOKOVIC’S 31–0 BEIJING RECORD.
Polymarket wallet “danielhansen” holds the largest Zverev position on the holders list.
If Zverev wins, those shares pay $113,000 — before subtracting the entry cost.
It’s a big position against a player who has won six Beijing titles without losing a single match here.
But Zverev has a strong case.
He just beat Shang 6–0, 6–3 in 55 minutes. Djokovic needed three sets against Bu and has been dealing with physical issues.
Novak still leads their rivalry 9–5.
This wallet is backing Zverev to hand him his first Beijing defeat.
Would you take the same side?
His wallet:
0xa379fded5ade68bc38364007fb62ff18ae4076de
31 WINS. ZERO LOSSES.
POLYMARKET GIVES DJOKOVIC JUST ~28%.
Novak has never lost a match in Beijing.
Six titles. A 31–0 record. And a 9–5 lead over Alexander Zverev.
So why am I still picking Zverev today?
Start with their last round.
Zverev beat Shang 6–0, 6–3 in 55 minutes.
Djokovic needed a 4–6, 7–6, 6–2 comeback against Bu while dealing with physical issues.
Now Novak faces a player with a 58–14 record this season and two 2026 Grand Slam titles.
My concern is whether Djokovic can sustain his best tennis long enough against this level of opponent.
There’s a reason to keep the upset alive: Novak said he actually felt better in the third set against Bu. If that improvement carries over, his return game could make this much closer than the market suggests.
But the 31–0 record alone doesn’t make 28¢ a bargain.
My pick: Zverev to win.
Would you take Novak at 28¢?
NO RONALDO.
3 WINS FROM 3.
NOW PORTUGAL GET HAALAND AT HOME.
My pick for Portugal vs Norway on Polymarket: Portugal to win.
They already beat Norway 2–1 in Oslo last Sunday.
Then Ronaldo left the camp — and Portugal went to Denmark and scored FOUR.
Ramos has scored in back-to-back games. The attack has kept producing through the noise.
Norway arrive with a much bigger problem at the other end.
Heggem is suspended.
Ryerson is injured.
Both are out after the 2–1 defeat to Wales.
That’s two defensive absences before an away game against a side that just put four past Denmark.
My read: Portugal have the attacking options to keep testing that reshuffled defence, especially out wide.
Haaland is the danger. Portugal conceded in both of their last two games, so I wouldn’t build this prediction around a clean sheet.
But over 90 minutes, I favour the hosts.
Prediction: Portugal 2–1 Norway.
Haaland can score and this pick can still win.
MrDouche is up $346,772 on football and still managed to lose $4,179 today
2,754 predictions. $73M volume. Biggest win $15.2K. Positions still open: $38.7K.
The book is basically Spain and England, with the junk filtered out
England Yes at 57¢, 20,000 shares, now $18,500, +$7,100. Same game, England No at 42.8¢, 20,011 shares, now $1,500, down $7,067. He bought both sides and the loser is eating the winner
Spain No at 7.8¢, 145,440 shares, $10,908. A 3-2 Wembley win and a 4-1 over Croatia did not scare him. He is still selling the world champions at pennies
Closed side is cleaner. Liverpool No at 26¢ to $40,000, +284%. Real Madrid No at 26¢ to $40,000, +284%. City Yes at 50¢, +100%. That is the edge. Today’s England hedge is the joke
Kane missed a penalty at Wembley and the market still prices England like the slip never happened
MrDouche priced both. One ticket prints. The other is a very expensive reminder that hedging a 57¢ favorite with 20,000 No shares is not a hedge
It is a second opinion you have to pay for
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