Polykinder

Probability beats punditry. I bet against the news cycle using on-chain data.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup.

No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup.
92 years. 22 tournaments. Never.
Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026.

$252,826 already in volume.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@syanovee At first glance, it seems like an easy win, but given that there have been a lot of surprises in the World Championship over the last few days, I wouldn't be surprised if Switzerland scores three goals or if Canada beats Qatar 4-1 😁
Good luck !

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@Top_Crypto_NFT Win rate is the most overrated stat in betting.
He's wrong 2 times out of 3 - but each "No" he hits pays 3-4x. One $90K winner wipes out a dozen misses.
I'd take his 35% over a grinder's 60% any day. The hard part isn't the math, it's stomaching the losing streaks. Most can't.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

A trader who wins barely 1 bet in 3 is up $4.9M.
Tonight he's fading the favorite again.

BreakTheBank - 35% win rate, +$4.9M all-time - just put $96K on Switzerland NOT winning. The market has them at 62%.
swisstony (+$10.2M, 53% win rate, ~$1B traded) is on the exact same fade. Both shorted Canada (76%) too.

My read: a 35% hit rate that still prints $4.9M means he only fires when the payout is lopsided - and he's seeing it on Switzerland. When the two highest-volume wallets independently fade the same favorite, I'm not arguing with 62%.

Leaning against Switzerland tonight. Screens below 👇

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@Top_Crypto_NFT @tempo @Polymarket Thank you for the research, I'll look into this event now

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@DmitriyUngarov That's incredible - I can tell how much work went into this. Great job!

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@foresightnow Hahaha, bro, why did that make me laugh so hard?

[Polykinder @polykinder]

$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup.

No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup.
92 years. 22 tournaments. Never.
Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026.

$252,826 already in volume.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@mmoyshaa @korenssss I think Canada will win by one goal, no more than that

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@polysuccubus @TycheTerminal @Polymarket Thanks, that was explained very clearly - I'll have to give it a try

[Polykinder @polykinder]

$262,215 is on the line for a goalkeeper scoring at this World Cup.
No goalkeeper has scored in 92 years and 22 World Cups. That's your base rate.

Then this World Cup gave us Vozinha. 40 years old. First World Cup ever. Blanked Spain with 7 saves. Gained 8 million followers overnight.

If a 40-year-old debutant can do that - maybe long-standing historical patterns don't mean what we think they mean.
Vozinha proved that impossible things happen at this World Cup.

"It's never happened" and "it's impossible" aren't the same thing.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

$252,000 riding on whether a goalkeeper will score at this World Cup.

No goalkeeper has ever scored at a World Cup.
92 years. 22 tournaments. Never.
Polymarket puts it at 5% in 2026.

$252,826 already in volume.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport I think Kane has a very good chance of being the best player in this tournament, he's having a great season

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@isaiev_ I think he's a true professional - that's all

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@ItzChristian6 Yeah, it's incredibly risky, but the risk-reward ratio is just insane

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@DmitriyUngarov Yeah, it's really upsetting to lose that much money in 90 minutes - I can't even imagine what that's like

[Polykinder @polykinder]

$1,580,000 gone in 90 minutes.
$986K on Over 2.5 goals. $594K on Portugal to win.
One match. Both wrong.

Her bio literally says "Chief Losing Officer."
She's not joking.

I keep staring at this and wondering - what does losing $1.5M in a single game actually feel like?

[Polykinder @polykinder]

Bio: "Polymarket Chief Losing Officer."
$694K on France at 67¢. 0-0 at halftime. Down $190K.
Bought another $100K at 48¢ instead of cutting losses.
France won 3-1. Position went from -$190K to +$445K (56%).

@latinaXBT knew exactly what they were doing.

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@mmoyshaa My pick for today's match is Switzerland, but I'm concerned that Bosnia has drawn its last five matches

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@EagleVisions Don't be discouraged - of these four outcomes, a Portuguese victory seemed the most likely

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@NeWry24 They've been pushing for this for a long time, I'd like to believe that everything will be okay

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport A 54% win rate isn't bad at all, considering that many of the favorites didn't win their matches

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@nabi_sarvi Yeah, bro - that's a lesson that comes at a very high price

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@korenssss Yeah, bro - that's crazy

[Polykinder @polykinder]

@korenssss I've been following the weather forecast for a while now, thanks for the analysis - I need to take a closer look at these profiles