Brian Oduor

decoding money, business, and power in a data-mandatory world.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@bryce when "taste" entered the chat group, which is philosophically a social positioning system, while there's no authentic taste hiding beneath this given social layer

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@hpierrejacques Makes sense that Karp and Reffkin are just about the right number.

< 1% of VC-backed startups ever IPO on the back of the fact that < 1% of all VC dollars going to Black founders.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@BoringBiz_ GTFOH.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

We'd really love to see revenue-related ROI -- new value -- from everyone. Not vague ROI.

[Rachel Woods @rachel_l_woods]

I'd pay money to see all these "90% of CEOs report no AI ROI" reports cut by tech/silicon valley vs rest of world.

I fear the world has no idea that the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

what exact moat do you have in only reducing costs when everyone can?

if the workflows weren't getting significant economic upside then cheaper models won't make a difference.

that "advantage" will be outcompeted.

[Citrini @citrini]

I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@JackieHirsch_ @OneManLBO @Sam_Rosati The move is upstream. Way before a transaction. It also means potential stewards playing long games, rolling their sleeves to build trust and context.

Operational Engineering > Financial Engineering

7/7

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@JackieHirsch_ @OneManLBO @Sam_Rosati Penrose: the orchestration is what creates value. But needs institutionalization.

"Dealflow" isn't a picture of the real world, because deals gets competitive as the few legible businesses have pools of institutional capital going after "buy and builds"

5/7

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@JackieHirsch_ @OneManLBO @Sam_Rosati From Teece - knowledge endowment. Just because you can buy a business doesn't mean you will be able to run it. But transactions value the by part.

Highest bidder > not the best next steward.

6/7

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@nikunj one must think of an organization as textbook normative. no way an org does an exhaustive searching and learning just because of extra tokens.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@karrisaarinen 100%

Several wore Lance Armstrong "LIVESTRONG" bands.
Did they even know what they were about?

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@Chesedgirl @meidamarek_ do we need to intellectually masturbate about "the world's oldest profession"?

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@OneManLBO @Sam_Rosati @JackieHirsch_ Closure — not continuity — is the dominant exit path today. In 2022 alone, 92 percent of SMB exits occurred through closure, only 5 percent were completed as sales.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@OneManLBO @Sam_Rosati @JackieHirsch_ Says more about transactions-first zeitgeist ill-fit for most SMB transitions vs. some alarming state of affairs.

Most transitions are long arcs. But folks organize companies around txns vs. other way round. There's only so many that fit this bill ( hence the NDA surge )

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@Kellblog This reads like Apple/Oranges. If private companies had yesterday's price transparent, then a degraded valuation would be implicitly revealed.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@WillManidis 100%.

[Brian Oduor @Polymathetic]

@tszzl make it make sense: how exactly will they profit from compressing economic capacity of the same people who they want to pay for the tokens they expect to make them profitable?

the comms problem is squarely the labs' insistence on doomsday scenarios that won't be.