Pontificate

Aspiring Steward... Charts are my own… I’ll never give financial advice… Only my musings… Tips are gratefully appreciated… More musings on Substack 👇🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

My guess for today… S&P UP… Nasdaq no read… Small caps UP… Dow UP… The crown's gone and the castle's still standing… Shape: maybe an early wobble, then a slow climb into the weekend… Graded after the bell…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

My guess for today… S&P DOWN… Nasdaq DOWN… Small caps DOWN… Dow DOWN… When the king's crown wobbles, the whole court feels it… Shape: maybe an early bounce that runs out of breath… Graded after the bell…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

My guess for today… S&P UP… Nasdaq UP… Small caps UP… Dow UP… The chips got their wind back overnight… but will the Dow keep up, or just watch? Shape: maybe an early wobble, then a climb… Graded after the bell…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

The S&P came within a hair of my target, oil is hunting a gap before a big turn up, and the 10-year just knocked on 5%…

Pontificate Market Musings #6 is out 👇
https://t.co/sitijBovyx

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

My guess for today… S&P DOWN… Nasdaq DOWN… Small caps DOWN… Dow UP… The inflation bill came due after Monday's party… tech picks up the tab while the Dow nurses its drink… Shape: maybe a hopeful bounce early that runs out of steam… Graded after the bell…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

@hbkkvbwcdfgotr True… not all generals crack the same… watching who loses support first…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

My guess for today… S&P UP… Nasdaq UP… Small caps UP… Dow UP… After last week's trapdoor, the bargain hunters are knocking again… even with the chip king's crown wobbling… Shape: maybe a dip early, then a slow climb into CPI eve… Graded after the bell…🤔

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

@elonmusk @niccruzpatane My man…😎👍🏾

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

India ran while Asia burned…🤔

Nifty reclaim story… KOSPI halted earlier… Nikkei smoked… after the US AI flush…

Rupee ~94.5… low AI exposure… FII bid… cheaper oil helping the tape…

Is India the refuge into next week… or just lagging the same wave?…

My guess… relative strength until the oil floor or the credit crack catches up…

$INDA $EWY $QQQ $USO
#India #Asia #Nifty #Oil #StockMarket

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

$QQQ closed Friday ~656… bounce off the washout…🤓

Thursday smoked it… Friday clawed some back…

First reclaim zone I'm watching is back toward the mid-660s… fail that and the next shelf gets built lower…

Flush days leave levels… not speeches…

Is this relief… or the real bid into Monday?…

$QQQ $NVDA $SPY
#Nasdaq #Tech #StockMarket

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

Gold held ~$4,080ish while risk got a bounce…🤔

Friday's jobs print was hot… metal barely blinked…

Central banks have been stacking all year… the crowd sells dips… they buy them…

$4,050ish is the shelf I'm watching… $4,150ish is the next ask until yields roll…

Who's the smart money here… the ETF seller… or the vault buyer?…

$GLD $GDX $SLV
#Gold #CentralBanks #Dedollarization

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

War premium got dumped… then oil found a floor…🤔

WTI ~$90ish… Brent ~$98ish… after Friday's close…

Hormuz didn't vanish… tanker risk put a bid back under barrels midweek…

Paper sold the speech… ships still have to sail the strait…

Lose ~$88ish and the unwind has room… reclaim $100 and the premium wakes back up imo…

Diplomacy tape… or chokepoint tape… into next week?…

$USO $BNO $XLE
#Oil #WTI #Brent #Hormuz #Energy

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

S&P closed Friday ~7,377… still under 7,540…🤔

10-year sitting ~4.86%… not racing toward 5%…

Splash was real… AI credit cracked… junk spreads widened…

Banks held… oil eased… rates still look like a ripple…

Tsunami stays offshore until the 10-year turns imo…

Which gauge blinks first next week… yields… or credit?…

$SPY $TLT $HYG
#StockMarket #Yields #Credit

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

Crowd pricing the AI funeral… after Thursday's flush…🤓

$ORCL smoked… SoftBank smoked… Polymarket "AI bubble" odds climbing…

$NVDA bounced to ~187ish off the washout… $QQQ clawed back toward ~656…

My guess… this is a funding flush… not the end of the utility…

The pipes still need chips… power… and copper… survivors own those…

Who's left to buy the survivors into Monday?…

$NVDA $ORCL $QQQ $SPY
#AI #Nasdaq #StockMarket

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

$TAN tagged ~44… right on the breakout test…🤔

Wedge break already happened… 44 was the next line…

Hold above it and the breakout stays honest… slip back under and it was just a tease…

Solar doesn’t care about the AI headline… it cares whether that level sticks…

Friday close above 44… or a failed breakout?…

$TAN $ICLN $QCLN
#Solar #CleanEnergy #TAN

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

$BTC sitting ~$76Kish after the $80K reclaim story failed…🤔

Every bounce toward $80K has been sold… every dip into the mid-70s gets a bid…

Floor until it isn’t… lid until it isn’t…

Lose ~$75Kish and the next leg gets ugly… daily close back over $80Kish and the shorts are the ones sweating…

Which narrative wins into the weekend… risk-off… or the bid under crypto?…

$BTC $COIN $MSTR
#Bitcoin #Crypto

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

War premium got dumped… then oil bounced…🤔

WTI ~$91ish… Brent ~$99ish… after the election plunge…

Chokepoint still exists… Hormuz didn’t vanish just because the “news” changed…

Paper sells the speech… barrels still have to sail past the strait…

Lose ~$88ish and the unwind has more room… reclaim $100 and the premium wakes back up imo…

$USO $BNO $XLE
#Oil #WTI #Brent #Hormuz #Energy

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

Oil drifts out of the dollar’s orbit… one deal at a time…🤔

Brent ~$99ish… WTI ~$91ish… while the Gulf still sits on the only strait that matters…

Two blocs… two payment rails… one chokepoint…

My guess… de-dollarization doesn’t get announced… it shows up in who settles the barrel…

Rupee ~94.5… yen ~158… Asia keeps paying for this oil with weaker currencies imo…

$USO $BNO $GLD $FXI
#Oil #BRICS #Hormuz #Dedollarization #Geopolitics

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

Friday’s jobs print just hit… now watch the tell…🤔

Not the headline number… the reaction…

Yields… gold… and whether risk wants the bid back after yesterday’s Nasdaq flush…

10-year sitting ~4.84%… gold holding ~$4,110ish… $SPY ~733…

If yields jump and gold slips… the market’s reading hot… if yields ease and gold holds… it’s a different story…

Which tape blinks first?…

$TLT $GLD $SPY
#NFP #Jobs #Yields #Gold #StockMarket

[Pontificate @Pontificate007]

Issue 5 said fireworks around Thursday…🤔

$VIX ripped to ~28ish… roughly a +70% day off ~16.6…

The river went from calm to raging in one session…

My guess… this is leverage talking… not the last word…

$VIX $SPY $UVXY
#Volatility #VIX #StockMarket