Mr. Deplorable

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@dartmonkeytrdg @DanGreenhaus A lot of the garbage isn’t IPOing this time around either.

[PFO Investor @PFOInvestor]

1 month returns. Totally normal.

[Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil]

I enjoyed this from Marathon on the AI capital cycle:

"Where once those same asset allocators were able to diversify their domestic exposure through
investment into other global equity markets, index focused alternatives now offer little in the
way of genuine differentiation, dominated as they are by what has essentially become, in the
case of emerging markets, a higher beta version of the same theme."

https://t.co/UgSPTRNK6p

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

They are even bidding up shit like Hewlett Packard.

Total mania.

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

"Parabolic Tech Mania" is the name of my new IDM band.

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@briantribbitt @negligible_cap I called those obvious parabolas at the time and I like gold and silver

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

Parabolas everywhere.

Way crazier than 2021 but timing is hard.

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@stckpkr7000 @TheProfInvestor Especially DRAM. Most of these people must be in their 20s to be this dumb.

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@stckpkr7000 @TheProfInvestor I laugh every time I see someone say “forward PE”

😂

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@pansareV @EconomPic @jaypelosky There was plenty of “real demand” back in 2000 also.

Sun was making boatloads of money selling servers and workstations. For a while.

[Potentia Finance | The Insider @FinancePotentia]

🚨👀A BRUTAL REALITY:

$MU just reached the same Market Cap. as Berkshire Hathaway $BRKA

CRA-ZY👇🏽

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

Silly stats like this are signs you need to make big changes to your investment portfolio.

I’ll never forget when Zoom was larger than XOM.

[ Q-Cap  @qcapital2020]

Micron’s Mkt Cap is now larger than Berkshire Hattaway

Ok it’s really over now

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

AI companies are all unprofitable.

The people selling to them are temporarily making money.

[Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares]

One of the reasons for the current rally is that there are many non-tech-savvy fund and asset managers sitting on trillions of dollars in assets that are slowly realising AI exists.

These people literally learned about Claude or agents in the last few weeks. And maybe even tried them.

And got an awakening.

To understand why that matters, you need to realise that the “average asset manager” in the UK or EU is barely able to turn on his computer. They have an “IT support guy” for that. They couldn’t tell you Windows from MacOS. Yet they manage $ trillions of pension assets on.

These people are always late to every trend. But every trend, they eventually join.

And they only now discovered that AI exists, and what it actually does. That “AI” is not just being an irritating chatbot in their “Windows” on “Outlook” on the big HP desktop in their office.

It’s also genuinely very hard for them to understand the growth rates, the incredibly high GAAP operating margins, and the relatively low P/E valuations in the semiconductor sector (low vs all other growth tech).

You see, in the past, every sector with dramatic growth had terrible, extremely negative margins (see SAAS, e-commerce, renewables, anything in the 2021 SPAC bubble, etc). Profits were always promised to “come later”, and usually, they never actually did.

Meanwhile, we now have a cloud and semiconductor sector that’s incredibly high growth, yet also has extraordinary margins and cash flows not seen anywhere else in the business world, anywhere. Ever.

In financial and economic terms, it’s simply unprecedented.

They’ve never seen numbers like this, so it’s mentally very hard for “the average asset manager” to grasp them.

Now, they’re seeing the use cases. The output. They’re seeing the numbers.

And they’re waking up.

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

$xle +30% YTD

It’s been a great year and you are still in the early innings of a 10+year run.

Energy stocks are 3% of the index. Still near record lows while the tech industry is currently building its own shale bubble.

Historic opportunity.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

The vociferous Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler, who in one page captures the tweet-driven mental exhaustion many of us are experiencing:

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

Semi stocks are parabolas everywhere. Obvious how the movie ends.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

$MU now worth $30 billion more than Berkshire Hathaway @Koyfincharts

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

We just went through this with the parabolic move in silver.

I like silver but called out the obvious parabolic move at the time.

[Kashyap Sriram @kashyap286]

Is AI a bubble?

Yes. Next question.

While the bubble deniers need to write a wall of text justifying parabolic up moves, one glance at the chart proves this is historic bubble territory.

[Mr. Deplorable @Ponzi1945]

@JKD_ff @HawkinsEntrekin @PeterBerezinBCA You are going to get a massive downwards earnings cycle when the depreciation kicks in and the capex gets cut

[Live Monitor @amlivemon]

$Nvda at $6 tril now

Almost passing valuation of all of Japan

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Nvidia’s, $NVDA, market value now exceeds the combined stock market capitalization of every country outside the U.S. and China.