Position Journal

I journal on my stock positions before buying. Mag7 Product leader. Concentrated portfolio and evidence-based research. Follow along on my transparent journey

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

Ladies and Gentlemen, I crossed over 1,000 followers🚀🎉🎉

I'm genuinely excited about the milestone and appreciative of the community that helped me get here.

As a recap of what this account is about and who I am:

- I post evidence-backed theses on stocks before I buy them. I want you and my future self to see what went through my head when I made the decision.

- My goal is to be a voice of transparency, grounded assessment and reason. I made this account partly to combat the many accounts on social media that only hype stocks, pump and dump, shill and all while charging you monthly fees.

- Posting actual positions is crucial. I see too many people on X stating they're buying $100K of this and $500K of that, without receipts. I post my positions and % of portfolio the stock occupies openly.

- Performance is important, but I don't want it to become my identity. My 3Y cumulative is >250% (vs SPY 86%) and annualized averaged >50%. It is not as impressive as other X accounts, but with me you know exactly how and why I got there, with nothing hidden behind a paywall or cryptic messaging.

Welcome and follow along the journey!

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@adamshuaib Near impossible to implement in big tech. Someone will inevitably pull you to the side to ask you to shut the fuck up (diplomatically of course).

Then that outlier talents spark is extinguished and we can go back to shipping garbage

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@LimestoneHQ Love it. But near impossible to do this at scale.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@rpnickson This is all true. But the end result will be shit that’s nowhere near production ready. You’ll need a few days of iteration, testing and validation just for one feature or function, depending on the complexity. If Claude could do what you evangelized here, it’d be a 10T company

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@citrini Most of the data can be scraped via common crawl which if an LLM uses it’ll end up outputting racist, homophobic and straight up garbage. There’s weights that’s given to sources like for example making sure a reply or comment on Reddit has X amount of upvotes before using

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@ChairmansLedger Mistake we make is pattern matching. Tying back an imminent crash to some metric or event. When in reality it’s so much more complex. Every crash’s primary reason is expansion of supply of credit, but if the catalyst to a crash (eg bank defaulting) doesn’t come, then no crash

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@bennybigbull If you sold the top last week it’s highly likely you’ll miss out months or years of gains. Even missing the strongest 1-2 days is a huge opportunity cost. It pays to hold and do less

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@zerohedge @epictrades1 We’ll be fine.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@0xDamien Bears always have the most compelling arguments, they serve a function in finance society of taking a sledgehammer to your thesis. It’s important to listen to them as they help refine your entry/exit strategy. But if you listen too much, you lose money always

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

I actually really enjoy X as well. What started out as a friend recommending me the app turned it into me putting out all my thoughts on paper to look back on and learn from others. What’s interesting about learning from others is that it’s not the niche tickers but it was seeing into their perspective and mindset and how they approach things. I picked up quite a bit on what to do and not to do

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@alojoh That looks like just any other IPO

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

You won’t ever be able to convince someone on a 10x opportunity.

They won’t even be convinced once it 5x’es because it still has halfway to go.

They’ll only applaud once you’re right.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@phani26781867 @OddStats Exactly my thoughts!

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@RJCcapital Whenever these conversations occur I genuinely don’t understand why people don’t realize private, unlisted companies could also solve the bottleneck. It doesnt have to be only a public company

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@SixSigmaCapital If it wasn’t for human emotions I’d never be able to make money. It’s amazing how a stock price change totally obliterates some peoples “conviction”.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@Spybef0rey0ubuy Imagine it rips to 600$? Oh well

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

Stock performance look back:

Sold $UNH for 100% net gains and if I held I’d be up 400%.

But I didn’t. I didn’t think United Healthcare would be optimistically viewed by the market or cross $370 mark.

I was wrong and today it sits at $396, I even let my “winners run” and waited until the last batch was up +240% before selling!

Lesson learned: Nothing in particular😄.

With the information I had at the time, and given my lack of knowledge in this segment, I got out when my thesis lacked the conviction to hold it past 370s. I let my winners run, I locked in profits and refocused attention to the stocks that I do know and care deeply about.

I’d do the same thing over again, helps me stay in the game and look for the future opportunities which there will always be.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

$UNH Jan'27 calls doing well.

Likely trimming half before earnings next week.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@Spybef0rey0ubuy Over levered and absolutely FOMOd at the top is what I’m guessing!

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

We lost one week of gains and all I see on X now is pattern matching.

For every red Friday what was the return in the next x days? For every VIX spike to x% how did market perform after?

We look for predictability and rely on nonsense. We should rely on underlying research.

[Za @ZaStocks]

Yesterday emphasized why cushion and not chasing is so important.

If you’re someone who bought leaders a 4-8 weeks ago and had a cost basis advantage, yesterday didn’t hurt as much as the headline numbers imply as most stocks retracted ONE weeks worth of gains.

Where traders get in trouble is when they start chasing high flying stocks when they’re extended after historic runs.

Looking at the one month return of most of the stocks that got crushed, they’re still up significantly.

Don’t chase. There is always another opportunity somewhere, whether it’s in the leading stocks or emerging potential leading stocks.

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

@Micro2Macr0 If something does crash I don’t believe it’ll be due to structural issues, but rather something mechanical. The earnings companies are putting out is well justifying the forward multiple increases

[Position Journal @PositionJournal]

Agreed. One of the best reasons why I use X is to analyze my previous self, backtesting to see if my thesis was right or wrong regardless if I made money or not. Then publishing it all as a public journal

I found that if I don’t write down my thoughts I wasn’t really holding myself accountable to losses and was taking too much credit when making money for reasons unrelated to my thesis