Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

India practice head, Eurasia Group. Ananta Aspen Centre. And other hats.

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

The Economist has updated its quantitative estimate of the largest tycoons of all time. Henry Ford is still the greatest tycoon of all time for Bezos and Musk are closing in.

[Elian Peltier @ElianPeltier]

“A spokesman for Pakistan’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the rebuffed flight.”
https://t.co/Zg6m4tvXJv

[Gokul Sahni @Gokul_Sahni]

“Intelligence experts said Alice Huang’s biography appeared to fit with trademark spycraft.

Her background “smells like a legend to me, which is what we do in the CIA,” said Dennis Wilder, a former top China analyst for the CIA..” 1/4

[Hidden History @HiddenHistoryYT]

February 1852. HMS Birkenhead, one of the first iron-hulled ships in the Royal Navy, is steaming along the South African coast carrying reinforcements to the Eastern Cape frontier war. On board are several hundred soldiers from a mix of regiments, most of them young recruits, along with a few officers' and soldiers' wives and their children.

Around 2 in the morning, off Danger Point, she hits an uncharted rock.

The captain orders the engines reversed to back her off. That tears the hull open even worse. Water floods the lower decks, and a large number of men drown in their hammocks before they're even awake.

Topside, Lt. Col. Alexander Seton takes command of the soldiers. No panic. He sends some men to the pumps, some to the lifeboats, and some to get the horses over the side so they have a chance of swimming ashore. Everyone else falls in on deck in ranks.

Most of the lifeboats are useless. Davits rusted, gear broken. Three get launched. The women and children go into one of them.

Inside 20 minutes the ship breaks apart. The funnel collapses. The bow is gone.

Then the captain calls out that every man who can swim should jump and make for the boats.

Seton draws his sword and tells them not to. That many men would swamp the boats and drown the women and children.

They stay in their ranks while the ship goes down under their feet. Survivors later said almost nobody broke.

The water was freezing, full of kelp and sharks. Men clung to wreckage and rigging for hours. Some made it 2 miles to shore. Some held on to the mast until a schooner picked them up the next afternoon. A cavalry officer swam ashore and found his own horse already standing on the beach.

Seton wasn't one of them. Neither were roughly 450 of his men.

Every woman and child lived.

It's the first recorded case of "women and children first." The King of Prussia reportedly had the account read aloud to every regiment in his army. Forty years later, Kipling was still using "the Birkenhead drill" as shorthand for standing fast when there's no way out.

They weren't heroes picked for the job. Most were teenage recruits who had barely learned to march. They just did what they were told, knowing exactly what it would cost them.

[Desmond Shum @DesmondShum]

Alice Huang: The Spy Narrative Misses Her Real Business

Everyone on X seems to treat the “Alice Huang is a Chinese spy” narrative as established fact. I say, not so fast.

Having spent over two decades doing business in China, I recognize a different character: the 掮客 (commercial fixer) and 白手套 (white glove)—an intermediary who shields the real principals behind a deal.

Her career in Shanghai’s murky capital markets, followed by Megaspeed’s $4.8 billion in Nvidia chip purchases, reveals a strikingly similar pattern.

The relevant questions should be: Whose money? Whose chips? Whose interests?

My latest Substack follows the money rather than the sensational spy narrative.

https://t.co/qXUo4DNiIa

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

My favorite honeytrap story remains the Soviet effort in 1955 to compromise Maurice Dejean, the French Ambassador to Moscow, with a "swallow." The operation was so well-crafted and elaborate, the KGB tapped the celebrated Soviet dramatist Yuri Krotkov, a friend of Pasternak, to stage-manage what became more aking to a live theatre production. When de Gaulle was later informed, he said: "Eh bien, Dejean, on couche?” It ended the diplomat's career. https://t.co/SjZuCUzQAF

[C. Raja Mohan @MohanCRaja]

My new book, "India Pivots to Europe: In Search of a Eurasian Balance", is now available for pre-order on Amazon : https://t.co/jp8yrEvIxd

[Zvika Klein צביקה קליין @ZvikaKlein]

A record 33 women are due to be sworn in to Israel’s 120-seat parliament Tuesday, the 5050 Initiative says. Eighteen are first-time lawmakers. Jerusalem Post staff reports, with Goldie Katz and Shir Perets contributing.
https://t.co/ZZsoVaGxEF

[Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600]

How different demographic factors impacted the US midterms. Education and religion mattered but income didn't...

[Sam Dalrymple @SamDalrymple123]

India's Most Beautiful Bathhouses

In the small town of Burhanpur in modern-day Madhya Pradesh stands a 400 year old hammam that I would argue is the prettiest in all of India.

🧵

[Shashank Mattoo @MattooShashank]

Our HT Story: An ex-US Navy admiral who aided India during Galwan and worked on the GE F414 jet engine deal just won a US House seat

Could Rear Admiral (Retd.) Eileen Laubacher be a key new ally for India on Capitol Hill?

https://t.co/hwCYNnzJrO

[Pix🔎 @PixBuilds]

How To Tell If Your Girlfriend Is A Spy:

[moja🧚‍♀️ @moja99758134]

中国は14億人の人口がいることから全ての好みに応じたハニートラップが準備できるという。因みに、安倍氏が総理時代に訪中した際、安倍氏は女性スキャンダルが皆無だったことから中国側は「安倍は男色…」と思い込み選りすぐりの美男子たちをズラりと用意したのは有名な話

[Arun Pudur @arunpudur]

⚡ Prothom Alo, Bangladesh’s largest newspaper, exposed 150+ Chinese streamers filming in Dhaka 🇧🇩 slums and passing them off as INDIA 🇮🇳 to Chinese audiences.

India’s growth under democracy is delivering results, and clearly rattling CCP 🇨🇳 dictatorship propaganda.

[Varghese K George @vargheseKgeorge]

Why Prashant Kishore thinks Hindutva politics is working against the interests of Brahmins. (A thread on four of my pieces on secularism-social justice intersection)

The intersection of caste representation and religious representation mirrors the intersection of social justice and secularism in electoral politics. The caste dynamics of politics are often manifested as critiques by non-Brahmins against Brahminism. A Brahmin perspective on these dynamics is rare, and that is the reason why Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor’s address to fellow Brahmins in Bihar’s Mithila region is an extremely valuable opportunity to peer into the emerging thinking within the community. He said BJP’s Hindu communalism, which excludes Muslims from electoral calculations, has cost the Brahmins heavily and asked them to rethink their position. @PrashantKishor

You will be able to read it without hitting a paywall for 24 hours.

Prashant Kishore’s Brahminical criticism of BJP’s Hindutva In @the_hindu

https://t.co/KJL0qUkDOw

[KAIZOKU @OKA_NO_KAIZOKU]

ディーゼル潜水艦が空気中の酸素を必要としながらも、水中を隠密に進む兵器として存在し続ける最大の利点は、原子力潜水艦に比べて圧倒的に「静粛性」に優れ、浅い海での待ち伏せや防衛において最強の隠密性を発揮できる点にあります。
一見、酸素を求めて定期的に浮上（またはスノーケル航行）しなければならないのは致命的な弱点（矛盾）に見えますが、それを補って余りある独自の強みを持っています。
主な利点を記します。

1. 「完全な沈黙」を作れる（原子力潜水艦との最大の違い）
•　ディーゼル艦の強み: 水中に潜航している間は、エンジンを完全に停止し、バッテリー（蓄電池）の電力だけで稼働します。このとき、艦内から発生する機械音はほぼ「ゼロ」になり、海の雑音に完全に溶け込むことができます。

•　原子力艦の弱み: 原子力潜水艦は酸素を必要とせず半永久的に潜航できますが、原子炉を冷却し続けるための「冷却ポンプ」を24時間止めることができません。そのため、どうしても常に一定の稼働音（低周波音）が発生してしまいます。

潜水艦の戦いは「相手より先に音で察知した方が勝つ」世界です。バッテリーでじっと潜むディーゼル潜水艦は、現代の最新技術をもってしても探知が極めて困難な「海の幽霊」になります。

2. 浅い海（沿岸部）での圧倒的な優位性
•　待ち伏せ特化: 日本の周辺海域のように、島が多く海が比較的浅い沿岸部では、大型の原子力潜水艦は小回りが利かず、その巨体やわずかな駆動音で居場所を突き止められやすくなります。

•　地形の利用: 小型で圧倒的に静かなディーゼル潜水艦は、海底の地形に紛れてじっと「待ち伏せ」をすることに適しており、防衛戦においては最強のコスパと能力を誇ります。

3. 圧倒的なコストパフォーマンスと運用のしやすさ
•　建造・維持費の安さ: 原子力潜水艦は非常に高額で、退役後の原子炉処理にも莫大な費用がかかります。ディーゼル艦はそれに比べてはるかに安価に製造・維持できます。

•　技術的ハードルの低さ: 原子力技術を持たない国や、非核政策を掲げる国（日本など）でも、高度な通常動力型（ディーゼル＋高性能バッテリー）潜水艦を運用することで、一級品の抑止力を持つことができます。

[Kyunghoon Kim @Kyunghoon_Kim_]

Korean companies are betting on Make in India.

Investment Plans:
🚗 Hyundai Motor Group $15.5 bn (2026–32)
🏭 POSCO $7.3 bn (2026–31, JV)
🚢 HD Hyundai $4 bn (JV under review)
📺 LG Electronics $600 mn (2025–29)
🏗️ HD Hyundai CE $65 mn (2026–30)

[Kyunghoon Kim @Kyunghoon_Kim_]

The Indian government is reviewing local content requirements for shipbuilding subsidies.

What is going on?

Effective industrial policies need to be both flexible and strict. Let me explain.

(1/n)

https://t.co/sGHSI9bc4u

[Richard Fontaine @RHFontaine]

U.S. is nearing a go/no-go decision on returning to war with Iran:

1. The military buildup is large. Two carrier strike groups in the Arabian Sea, with a third reportedly en route. Dozens of aerial refueling tankers. Missile defenses. In other words, the U.S. is assembling the force necessary for a major strike.

2. POTUS today said an attack is “highly unlikely” after saying for weeks that he’d strike Iran after the midterms. As with the war’s objectives and status, it’s public cacophony from the administration. 

3. The region is on edge. I was in the Gulf last week and officials worry about a disproportionate Iranian response - on them - to a U.S. strike. They fear attacks on energy infrastructure, desalinization plants, subsea cables, and civilian sites.

4. No one there thinks that more strikes will topple the regime, as Netanyahu suggests, and most doubt that Iran will be quickly bombed back to the negotiating table. “Finishing the job” is easier said than done.

5. Some newly elected members of Congress want to defund the war and end it immediately. That, however, would leave Iran emboldened, in control of the Strait, and threatening the region.

6. In the meantime, with Iran shooting at ships and the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. unable or unwilling to completely stop either, the incentive for countries to cut deals with Iran is growing.

7. The chances are that another round of sustained strikes will be regionally ruinous rather than the path toward enduring peace, especially if Tehran survives them defiantly.

8. Perhaps the best case at this point is to sustain the embargo, which is creating real and significant economic pressure on Tehran. If, in a few months, the government can’t pay the Basij or, eventually, other IRGC elements, it may be more willing to deal.

9. That’s a suboptimal approach, to be sure, but the options - attack, sustain, or walk away - are all bad. It’s a question of the least disadvantageous choice. 

10. The U.S. at this point can’t “win” the war, at least by its original terms. But unless it emerges with an agreement to reopen the Strait and secures guarantees on Iran’s nuclear program, this will be an unambiguous defeat. Hopefully there is still time to avoid that outcome.

[Saul Sadka @Saul_Sadka]

This is the London Banana. As long as you stay within the Banana, you'll have a great time in London. Almost everything outside the Banana is horrible these days, best avoid. Not clear why, or when this happened. But it is what it is.