Welfare Capital (Jack)

22 y/o small-time stock operator. Contributor @Aurelionrsch. All independent work published publicly and freely. Not financial advice!

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

The 6th most visited website on the internet, $RDDT, is still dramatically under-monetized. I think they’re going to 7x operating profit by 2028. In about 20 minutes, this free writeup will tell you exactly how that’s going to happen. Link below.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030

Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.

AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

$RDDT confirms search ads are coming:

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

Likely within the next handful of quarters, Reddit $RDDT will begin rolling out Google-like search ads. Over the past year Reddit has been shipping basic QoL improvements to search, and now, basic search and Reddit's AI-summary offering, Reddit Answers, have been combined into one search surface, with improved visibility and utility.

These are my refined estimates for Reddit's search ad revenue potential: as enhancements and search visibility stack in the next few quarters, I think we see an uptick in search volumes and searches per user. Assuming the program begins in Q3 2026, I've set ad load at 15%, lower than Google's average platform ad load, and CPC and CTRs also well lower than Google averages. Based off these estimates, search ads could contribute another $180-200mm in topline by 2028, carrying very low incremental costs.

People say Reddit will never be able to monetize like $META, and I do agree with that sentiment, I'd be very surprised to ever see their ARPU pass Meta's. Meta has better targeting, double the ad load, and rich full-screen video ads that their advertisers are very skilled at creating engaging content for.

But I don't think Reddit needs to *be* Meta to continue growing ad revenue at surprising rates. Meta doesn't have a data licensing line, they won't have a search ads line. Considering these factors and other potential monetization opportunities down the line, I still think Reddit is very well positioned to close a lot of the gap between their ARPU and Meta's, bringing the two figures closer than a lot of people today are assuming.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

At the 64-day (QTD) average price, $RDDT has repurchased $150mm worth of shares this quarter, 15% of their $1Bn buyback authorization, and about 0.5% of S/O.

If $RDDT wants to exhaust its entire remaining buyback authorization, at current prices they could shrink S/O by a further 2.3%.

Management basically telling us they think the stock is a good deal, and that they are serious about turning their rapidly growing cash flow into cold, hard shareholder capital returns.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

@rgoldson @Chartfest1 At that point just self insure into corporate bonds, CDs, something, that’s egregiously awful!

[Divergent Capital @Divergent7651]

Financial infrastructure is on sale. $CME $CBOE $ICE

[Lukasz Tomicki @tomicki]

1/ $CME - LONG! The world's largest derivatives exchange and the clearinghouse for global rates, energy and ag risk. A toll booth on hedging itself, and the stock is now sitting at 52-week lows despite record results. Q1'26: record revenue $1.88B, adjusted EPS $3.36 (+20%). Quality on sale.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

@HettyGreen2020 *also meant hyperliquid has higher slippage, not fees

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

$CME yielding 4.5% this year (probably, half the dividend is variable) has to be some kind of good deal. Rarely under 20x fwd earnings

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

Isn’t the volume on hyperliquid super thin? I don’t see them displacing CME for commercial and institutional hedging purposes, maybe for some retail orders but I don’t know of any brokers that would/are working on directing retail flow to hyperliquid.

Feels like YK, they have blockchain 24/7 trading but they charge wayyy higher fees and with tiny relative liquidity, I think CME can switch up it’s architecture to be blockchain enabled much easier* than any challenger can recreate the entirety of CME, that is just like, that sounds completely impossible. This always happens with exchange stocks, people get scared about new challengers and it ends up making for good entry points.

*CME is already actively working on tokenization of its markets.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

$PTC seems criminally underrated in current software discussion, for such a cash producing, AI resistant business that arguably has quite a few things going for it at the moment:

- Has real cash flow, guiding to 1Bn in 2026 on 19Bn EV (~800mm ex SBC)

- Divesting lower-margin assets in H1 ‘26 (160m ARR shrinking 1%, sold to PE for 365mm minimum net proceeds, ~10x FCF multiple). 365mm minimum net proceeds, PE sale earnout could up that to ~500mm

- Divestiture proceeds to be plowed into 2Bn buyback authorization through 2027, midpoint estimate ~200mm/quarter in 2026, easily lapping SBC dilution with potential ~4% decrease in s/o through 2027 assuming mgmt target of 50% of FCF to share reductions

- Grows a slow but steady 8-9% annually at 2.75Bn ARR but critically manages expenses to 4% growth annually, generating 50% incremental EBIT margins. Half of sales growth is pricing with 3-5% annual escalators

- Seemingly rather high quality of earnings, avg. contract term shifted up from 2 —> 3 years between Q4 ‘24 and ‘25. Multiple products taking share, PLM (Windchill) ARR growth of 11% compared to ~8% expected for that market (from some online sources). Codebeamer ALM also doing fairly well it seems? They also run CAD through Creo and Onshape which appears to be at least holding share. Investing some into new features of core products

- Vanishingly low capex, guided to 1% of sales in 2026 and 2/3 of that is one-time relocation of an RnD center to a new office. Beyond capex, historically they have been an acquirer and have guided to bolt-on acquisitions as a use of capital in addition to repurchases

- Seems like can grow FCF at 15%+ for at least a few years under pretty simple assumptions, trades at 20x EPS. Slow but steady wins the race? Anyone have pushback?

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

@taobanker @ChipotleTweets $CMG get on this

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

@DeepDishEnjoyer John Williams could return

[Forrest Cardamenis @FCardamenis]

Baby has gotten good at identifying “dada” but still struggling with surrealism, cubism, even baroque.

[Welfare Capital (Jack) @Pray4Equity]

Idk, Witcher 3 has easily 100 hours of content in the base game and that only took 3 and a half years, 250 devs, including building their REDEngine from scratch. Now on UE5 to streamline things, with twice the number of developers and I’ll assume similar technology/visual performance between iterations, more shared assets, maybe it’s a bit of a stretch but it does sound doable.

[AltSpacium @Willspacefolio]

“An anomaly.”

[Renny @rennyzucker]

I think Jeff Bezos should probably stop talking about how society is wasting money on vanity projects (such as public schools)

[Luke Leisher @luke_leisher_]

LC-36 Was a launch complex

[Ayush @ay_ushr]

what the shit is my agent doing