The Magic Berry Peddler

ex big 4 auditor turned Portfolio Manager. Value Investor who despises charlatans, cults, and illogical thinking.

[Motorhead @BradMunchen]

@JonBryant421 This how scared Tesla is to deploy their unsupervised robotaxis: roughly around 2 rides/day. This is basically a dog & pony show.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.

You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.

The whole point was the rules.

The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.

After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.

For 23 years, those rules held.

Then SpaceX filed for IPO.

And the rules changed.

The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.

Except the rules used to say they didn't.

Here's the thought exercise:

If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?

Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.

A rule binds the rule-maker.

A guideline binds the saver.

You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

This is the moment. As a former Lehman trader I feel it’s the time speak up. We all have that responsibility, enough hubris. We must STOP this. Your 401k is on the line. I know deep down @elonmusk @chamath and @DavidSacks agree — at a $2T valuation, passive investors (the S&P 500, the Nasdaq) deserve better.

[Bloomberg @business]

Tesla is reportedly facing a consumer lawsuit in China over its Full Self‑Driving feature https://t.co/BBf2vuEPlx

[Vebjørn | VJN @VJNCapital]

This is my favorite mag7 chart

[grant @grantbelden]

I am so shocked to learn the autonomy on display at the Tesla cybercab event was bullshit

Shocked I tell you

This company deserves everything that happens the next 5 years

[George Noble @gnoble79]

As PeterLynch always says,
“IPO stands for It’s Probably Overpriced.”

This will mark the top for tech.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that's the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate.

Once we get there, even a minor disruption (any sort of outage) will result in gasoline lines at gas stations.

I guess we are really doing this.

[Stanphyl Capital 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 @StanphylCap]

Tesla is a fraud, fraud, FRAUD, and Elon Musk is a massive FRAUDSTER. The fact that he's getting a free pass from Wall Street on $TSLA and the SpaceX IPO is DISGUSTING.
https://t.co/kpM9bafV8H

[Sir Escanor (𝘏𝘰𝘱𝘪𝘶𝘮 𝘚𝘭𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘳) @EscanorReloaded]

CEOs are quietly realizing the AI replacement plan has a problem.
Two problems, actually.

One: the token costs for running AI agents are now exceeding what they were paying the employees they fired.

Two: when the tokens run out, the AI stops. Just stops. No continuity. No workaround. Just a spinning wheel where your workforce used to be.

You fired humans to save money and bought a subscription that bills you into a corner.

The employees you let go knew what to do when things broke.
The AI just invoices you for the outage.

And then there’s the permission problem nobody wants to talk about.

To do its job, the AI agent needs access. Full access. Your systems, your patents, your contracts, your future plans. Everything you spent years building, handed over to a process that has no loyalty, no discretion, and no skin in the game.

You didn’t hire a replacement.
You gave a stranger with no soul the keys to everything you own.

Enjoy.

[Prestige Worldwide 🇨🇦 @DobackHuffInc]

JUST IN: The guy Elon publicly called a Pedophile awards him $2.3 billion.

$Tsla

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

I'm please to announce that my engagement with Sydney Sweeney is "95% done"

The remaining 5% of work will focus on her agreement with said arrangement

Thank you for your attention to this matter

[grant @grantbelden]

Elon fanboys bragging about the compute rev from anthropic 🙈

[Abnormal Accrual @bbm010]

SpaceX is a phone company with money sucking rockets and Ai:

[Motorhead @BradMunchen]

SpaceX's free cash flow imploded from +$0.1 billion in 2023 to -$14 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 FCF of -$9.1 billion is already 65% of 2025's total cash burn.

No wonder Musk is offering 30% allocation to retail, and Morgan Stanley is pump-priming E-Trade.

$SPCX $TSLA

[jbulltard @jbulltard1]

If you think this is worth $2 trillion you should find a new hobby bc finance isn’t for you

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

When you were taught to value companies based on discounted future cash flows but you just saw a company with no cash flows IPO for a trillion dollars

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So is Starlink March ARR actually below that of December….?! $SPCX

[Rob Schmied @rschmied]

This appears to be a FSD death based on NHTSA report.....Tesla was trying to turn left when it collided with a Dodge pickup truck.

Woman dies after multi-vehicle crash in Batavia, 3 others injured, police say https://t.co/GN6hBpoe0y

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

The greatest Black Swan at this point would be a War during Market Hours.

It’s also extremely rude and goes against wartime etiquette during the Golden Age of Grift ™️