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[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Prediction Markets Ecosystem Landscape

100+ projects today. But how does this map change in 2026?

Tag your favorites. Tell us what we missed 👇

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@j0hnwang they’re selling dollars for 30 cents

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Mick Bransfield warned prediction market startups to think carefully about sharing information with journalist Dustin Gouker, claiming he's a paid consultant to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission while the state is suing Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Gouker pushed back hard. Here's the back and forth:

— Gouker fired back that the Massachusetts Attorney General is suing Kalshi, not the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, correcting Bransfield's framing of who's actually in the litigation

— Gouker says he's done "exactly one hint of work" for the MGC on prediction markets, and it was just an explainer

— 95% of his consulting work for the MGC focused on sportsbook customer limiting, which resulted in the MGC mostly adopting his recommendation that sportsbooks need to be more transparent and notify customers when they limit them

Hate so see two legends (@MickBransfield and @DustinGouker) in the prediction market news space going at it like this. Hope they work it out.

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

At some point I might have to sue Mick. The Massachusetts attorney general is suing Kalshi, not the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. I have done exactly one hint of work for the MGC on prediction markets and it was just an explainer.

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@realTomBayes @Kalshi Appreciate it!

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@MickBransfield Exposed

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@PredictionHunt Stacked lineup🔥

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Retail traders on prediction markets are losing more than sports bettors, according to a new report from Citizens JMP Securities. The median prediction market user returned -8% since July 2025, compared to -5% on sportsbooks, because prediction markets don't ban winning players, leaving retail directly exposed to pros and market makers. Here's the breakdown:

— Median ROI for prediction market users was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, versus -5% for sportsbook users, per transaction data from analytics firm Juice Reel

— Only traders moving $500,000+ on prediction markets were profitable, with a median ROI of +2.6%. Every cohort below that was negative, dropping to -26.8% for users trading under $100.

— Sportsbooks weren't profitable for any cohort either, but the losses were less steep across the board

— The key difference is that prediction markets don't limit or ban winning players. Retail users are providing liquidity directly to professionals and market makers instead of betting against a house that filters out sharp players.

— Two professional bettors on a Citizens JMP call said prediction markets are more attractive precisely because retail provides the liquidity

— Gaming CEOs aren't worried about cannibalization. DraftKings, Flutter, and BetMGM all said they see minimal revenue impact, with Citizens JMP estimating around 5%.

— The real threat is generational. 24% of Kalshi users are under 25 with a median age of 31, compared to just 7% under 25 on DraftKings and FanDuel where the median age is 35.

— Kalshi logged 6.3 million downloads from September 2025 through February 2026, while FanDuel and DraftKings downloads fell 18% and 13% year-over-year

— Roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue comes from users over 30

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@DustinGouker Dustin, we have a good list already you can pull from https://t.co/FqOOhfPDiy

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Prediction Markets Ecosystem Landscape

100+ projects today. But how does this map change in 2026?

Tag your favorites. Tell us what we missed 👇

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@Predictefy Long time coming, congrats!

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@Knibbs @DustinGouker Dustin is a beast

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@ArfurRock @5cc_capital Stacked team! https://t.co/nOpRhvG8qa

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Two early Kalshi employees are raising $35 million for a venture fund called 5c(c) Capital that will back startups building prediction market infrastructure. Both Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ and Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan are investing, which is notable given their companies compete directly. Here's what you need to know:

— 5c(c) Capital is targeting $35 million and plans to invest in roughly 20 companies over two years, with the first close expected within a month

— The fund is led by @eightyhi (early trader tied to Kalshi's market making) and @Nostroah (Kalshi's former head of operations), with former SIG quantitative trader
@chexmatrix as advisor

— Backers include @pmarca through Moneta Luna, Ribbit Capital founder Micky Malka, and former Multicoin managing partner @KyleSamani

— The fund will focus on market making, prediction market indices, and broader infrastructure around event contracts

— The name references Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act, the clause titled "New Contracts, New Rules," signaling a bet on regulated prediction markets winning long term

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@Nostroah Congrats guys! Featured it here https://t.co/nOpRhvG8qa

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Two early Kalshi employees are raising $35 million for a venture fund called 5c(c) Capital that will back startups building prediction market infrastructure. Both Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ and Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan are investing, which is notable given their companies compete directly. Here's what you need to know:

— 5c(c) Capital is targeting $35 million and plans to invest in roughly 20 companies over two years, with the first close expected within a month

— The fund is led by @eightyhi (early trader tied to Kalshi's market making) and @Nostroah (Kalshi's former head of operations), with former SIG quantitative trader
@chexmatrix as advisor

— Backers include @pmarca through Moneta Luna, Ribbit Capital founder Micky Malka, and former Multicoin managing partner @KyleSamani

— The fund will focus on market making, prediction market indices, and broader infrastructure around event contracts

— The name references Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act, the clause titled "New Contracts, New Rules," signaling a bet on regulated prediction markets winning long term

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Two early Kalshi employees are raising $35 million for a venture fund called 5c(c) Capital that will back startups building prediction market infrastructure. Both Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ and Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan are investing, which is notable given their companies compete directly. Here's what you need to know:

— 5c(c) Capital is targeting $35 million and plans to invest in roughly 20 companies over two years, with the first close expected within a month

— The fund is led by @eightyhi (early trader tied to Kalshi's market making) and @Nostroah (Kalshi's former head of operations), with former SIG quantitative trader
@chexmatrix as advisor

— Backers include @pmarca through Moneta Luna, Ribbit Capital founder Micky Malka, and former Multicoin managing partner @KyleSamani

— The fund will focus on market making, prediction market indices, and broader infrastructure around event contracts

— The name references Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act, the clause titled "New Contracts, New Rules," signaling a bet on regulated prediction markets winning long term

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

🚨 BREAKING: Kalshi just raised over $1B at a $22B valuation, doubling its $11B valuation from December. Annual run rate is $1.5B. This comes the same week Arizona's attorney general filed criminal charges against them for allegedly running an "illegal gambling operation."

[Bloomberg @business]

Kalshi has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a person familiar with the situation https://t.co/mPsPwYvK8A

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@poly_hunt_ Dm us! Will update the link as well

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Prediction Markets Ecosystem Landscape

100+ projects today. But how does this map change in 2026?

Tag your favorites. Tell us what we missed 👇

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@factsdottrade Love what you guys have been cooking up💪🏼

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Arizona just became the first state to file criminal charges against Kalshi. Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 misdemeanor counts in Maricopa County Superior Court today, alleging the prediction market ran an illegal gambling business and took unlawful election bets from Arizona residents. Until now, state pushback stopped at cease-and-desist letters and civil injunctions. Here's what happened:

> Kalshi tried to get ahead of the filing by suing in federal court for a temporary restraining order. U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi denied it, which is a rough early signal for Kalshi's argument that CFTC jurisdiction blocks state criminal prosecution.
> 16 counts fall under Arizona's general gambling statute, which prohibits accepting bets on "any unknown or contingent future event." 4 more target election wagering under a separate statute that criminalizes bets on election outcomes.
> The four election counts are the most legally dangerous. They sit under a statute aimed at protecting election integrity, not regulating financial products, and preempting that with a derivatives license is a much harder argument to make.
> Transactions cited in the filing are tiny. A $30 bet on Commanders vs. Giants, $1 player props on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scoring the first Super Bowl touchdown, a $2 bet on J.D. Vance winning the 2028 presidential election, a $1 bet on whether the SAVE Act becomes law.
> "Kalshi may brand itself as a 'prediction market,' but what it's actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections," Mayes said. Kalshi called the charges "paper-thin arguments" and maintains its contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction.
> Massachusetts secured an injunction on sports contracts, Nevada applied state gaming rules, and now Arizona has gone criminal. Each state is building on the last, and the enforcement tools keep escalating.
> If these charges survive a motion to dismiss, AGs in other states with similar statutes will have a roadmap for filing criminal cases of their own.

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Stripe cofounder John Collison and Matt Huang sat down with Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for a nearly 77-minute Cheeky Pint episode. They break down the CFTC lawsuit victory, explosive growth, how real market making works on the platform, and the vision to turn prediction markets into the NYSE of events. Here's the breakdown:

> Kalshi revenue grew 11x in six months, with February trading volume alone hitting $10.4 billion
> Sued the CFTC after years of blocks and won in late 2024, unlocking U.S. election markets
> 95%+ of liquidity comes from 2,000+ small peer-to-peer market makers and superforecasters (not Wall Street)
> One Ariana Grande superfan cleared $150k trading music chart markets and used it to pay off student loans plus buy a car
> Building the "New York Stock Exchange of events" with futures, options, and swaps on Oscars, GPU supply chains, weather, and more
> AI agents are already trading live. Kalshi is launching research benchmarks to test forecasting models against humans
> Strict insider trading rules: 5x profit fines, account bans, and pushing to ban members of Congress from betting on legislation they influence
> Exploded from basically one big market (Super Bowl) last year to over 10,000 markets today

[John Collison @collision]

Prediction markets are one of the most hotly-discussed new technologies of the past few years. @mansourtarek_ and @luanalopeslara, founders of @kalshi, joined @matthuang and me in the Cheeky Pint pub. We discussed their landmark lawsuit against the CFTC, how market making works on Kalshi, and where prediction markets go from here.

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

Parity compiled accuracy data across 181,333 resolved prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, broken down by category and how far out from resolution the price was measured. It's the most comprehensive look I've seen at how well these markets actually calibrate. Here's the breakdown:

> 69,630 Polymarket and 111,703 Kalshi markets analyzed, with accuracy measured from 1 month out to the final 4 hours before resolution
> AI/Tech is the most accurate category on both platforms. Polymarket hits 94.3% a week out and 93.7% in the final 4 hours. Kalshi hits 95.1% in the final 4 hours.
> Markets are generally most accurate in the final hours, but not always. Kalshi's Financials category (47,418 markets) is actually more accurate a month out (94.4%) than in the final 4 hours (89.3%).
> Weather on Kalshi shows the biggest improvement as resolution approaches, jumping from 80.5% a month out to 96.8% in the final 4 hours across 31,400 markets
> Stock Index markets on Polymarket are the least accurate at the 1 month horizon (82.5%) but climb to 89.7% in the final hours
> Entertainment markets are surprisingly well-calibrated at every time horizon, with Polymarket holding steady between 90.9% and 93.5% from 1 month to 4 hours out
> Politics is one of the weaker categories on both platforms. Polymarket political markets sit at 85.9% even in the final 4 hours (14,096 markets).
> Kalshi's Health category (525 markets) is the only one where 1 week out (95%) beats the final 4 hours (93.9%)
> Polymarket data sourced from Dune Analytics, Kalshi data from their Historical API, generated March 17, 2026

[Parity @PredictParity]

Prediction Market Accuracy By Category

181,333 resolved markets across Kalshi & Polymarket. We compared the differences in accuracy over time.

Findings:
-Weather markets on Kalshi are 81.7% accurate 1 day out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 96.8% accuracy right before resolution.
-Entertainment is the most consistent category across both platforms
-Politics has the biggest cross platform gap

[PredictionDesk @PredictionDeskX]

@investingLive_ ran a prediction markets roundup this weekend, and the most useful signal is how event contracts are moving ahead of Wall Street on rates. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both pushed their first rate cut calls from June to September last week, citing Middle East war inflation risk, but Polymarket traders had already priced that in. Here's the breakdown.

> Polymarket's March FOMC market has "no change" at 99.4% on $444 million in volume. June shows 60% hold versus 31% for a 25bp cut.
> Reuters reported Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold ceasefire talks, but Polymarket puts ceasefire by March 31 at just 8% and ceasefire by June 30 at 41%. Traders are treating negotiations as crisis management, not resolution.
> Gas prices jumped nearly $0.60/gal in two weeks after the Feb 28 strikes, with the national average hitting $3.54/gal per AAA. That's already showing up in midterm odds.
> Kalshi has Democrats at 51% to win Senate control, 84% for the House, and roughly 50% to take both chambers. investingLive argues these markets are moving faster than mainstream seat-by-seat analysis.
> The Clarity Act hit a fresh impasse with banks objecting to deposit-flight risk and floor time evaporating, but Polymarket still has passage in 2026 at 62%.
> The CFTC's advance notice of proposed rulemaking, with comments due April 30, is asking about manipulation, position limits, and whether to invoke "public interest" authority to block contracts tied to war and gaming.
> If the CFTC curtails geopolitical or politically sensitive contracts, prediction markets lose some of the instruments producing the most useful signals right now.