Ella Papanek

Chess, stats, crypto, football, art + elaborate pranks. formerly trading @ SIG, analytics @Browns, Co-President @HarvardChess @Harvard_Sports '21

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

Hal Finney

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

NYC Subway needs a designated Talking Car.
Want to chat with strangers? Get in.
🔶 Knicks takes
🔶 Neighborhood gossip
🔶 Crowdsourced advice
Want to be left alone? Any other car.
Make this happen @NYCMayor !!

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@peanut_bettor @goldenpants013 @spanky @Sports__Proj :)

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@NickPreszler Diff blind structures (loosely) serve as a skill sorting mechanism for poker, + I agree “game selection as strategy” is generally a good/interesting feature. but mechanism can’t be explicit.

for trading you’d get sandbagging, fragmented + thin liquidity, taker-only pools, etc

[rachel @rachcorrine]

Discussion we had this evening. In NYC we are bringing back the IRISH HELLO. AKA THE 90s. Here’s how it works. You and your friends all share location. Sporadically throughout the day (lunch break, coffee walk, after work, before work) you check to see where they are. If you’re close to someone, you just show up at their location. Aka bring them a coffee to work, stop by their apt unannounced, kick shoes off and spill the tea. Spontaneously grab a drink or dinner because you’re in the same vicinity. And even if you’re not, meet in the middle. It’s easy to get around here. We’re nostalgic for a time that does not exist and yet we have the means to create it and still we refuse. Everyone is too cool or too nonchalant or too scared to appear desperate. Who gives a fuck. I think we should all be a little more desperate. You’re alive. You need people and people need you. Be the one who calls. Be the one who makes the plan, who sets the tone. I guarantee you’ll be surprised at who shows up. It’s better to be the person who tries than the person who doesn’t.

HELLO I AM HERE.

[Aradtski @aradtski]

.@lightconexyz is hiring a trader/mm

if you find it exciting to explore a greenfield category, to be the first trader in the world to think about and design strategies around impact markets, and to be part of a small team with seed-stage startup equity upside- please reach out!

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@tommybytes Yeah I just framed in terms of the favored team, so your estimate would be 75-80

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

If two average NFL teams played on a neutral field, but one team faced 1st & 11 on every new set of downs, what would you guess the win probability would be?

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@professor042 @Atlantislq @Polymarket yeah calibration matters more than “accuracy”

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@throwthedamball @kennedyfortgang Congrats!!!

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@PlusEVAnalytics Also very curious to see the 3-leg approach. Because lots of cases where A and B are negatively correlated when C is true and positively correlated when C is false

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@PlusEVAnalytics Agree on the second point - seems first parlay iteration will be RFQ and highly dependent on how competitive pricing MMs show.

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

Every person on this airplane is super intently studying the safety information card during the demo. I feel like I’m on a hidden camera show

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

Would you rather own x% of a startup that you think has y% chance of success or y% of a startup with x% chance of success? Assume x < y < 5 and "success" magnitude is equivalent

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@joshqharris count me in

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@ColeJacobson32 Congrats!!

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

assume you've already controlled for age + income + how well you know them

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

Ive noticed on avg my female friends are less comfortable accepting generosity from me (paying for group dinner, picking up a gift/grocery/errand) than my male friends. “No you don’t have to” vs “haha thanks let’s run up the tab”. Curious what other people’s experiences are /why?

[Ella Papanek @chexmatrix]

@tejfbanalytics In