macroarb

[macroarb @macroarb]

@dgt10011 Cool story bro. Trade some BRL before having an opinion. Local mkts work differently.

[macroarb @macroarb]

@ScottPh77711570 in the wise words of kanye: "bipolar is my superpower"

[macroarb @macroarb]

Kinda ingenious, conceptually. Replication strats could be taken to the next level on HL. It’s what made Bridgewater famous before Ray ray’s assistant hooked him up with a TikTok

[0xArchive @0xArchiveIO]

Reverse engineer any trader. Backtest anything.

We just open-sourced a quant research skill for coding agents. It runs on 0xArchive's Hyperliquid data. Hand your agent a wallet, an idea, a Pine script or a paper, and get a verdict anyone can rerun.

https://t.co/Bi9UtyTD4I

Paste a wallet and the agent will:

- pull every fill that changed a position
- profile the style: which markets, how long it holds, when it opens
- mirror the book in a Rust backtester with fees and funding
- write candidate rules and score how much of the book each one reproduces

Then it tests skill against luck. It puts the book up against three fakes: the same trades flipped, random positions in the same markets, and the trader's own positions moved to random earlier times. If the real book beats all three, the timing was worth something.

We checked that it finds the right rules on a book where we knew the answer: 297 position changes made by one of our example strategies. The real rules matched the trader's side in 100% of held hours, with 0.97 correlation in daily returns. An unrelated strategy got 2.5% and -0.02.

We ran our own idea through it too: 7-day momentum on the top 25 perps over 16 months. Sharpe 2.43 and +71.4% after fees and funding, none of the 20 random or stale runs matched it, and Sharpe 1.81 out of sample.

It still isn't called an edge. We tried 4 settings, and over 4 tries the deflated Sharpe is 0.93, under the 0.95 bar. So the verdict is "holds out of sample", rung 4 of 6.

Every try is logged, and the last months of data stay sealed until you commit one strategy, so the tenth tweak can't pass as the first.

The engine, for any agent:
pip install "0xarchive-backtest[curated]"

Claude Code:
claude plugin marketplace add 0xArchiveIO/0xarchive-quant
claude plugin install 0xarchive@0xarchive-quant

Codex:
git clone https://t.co/tKU6u3u6HE
mkdir -p .agents/skills && cp -R 0xarchive-quant/skills/backtest .agents/skills/0xarchive-backtest

Then ask with /0xarchive:0xarchive-backtest in Claude Code or $0xarchive-backtest in Codex.

A free API key covers the last 30 days.

[macroarb @macroarb]

@ScottPh77711570 Dont agree, never seen a person going through a divorce who wasn't stopped out less than a year, usually a few months. But think people are humble about mkts, but humility in personal life is irrelevant.

[macroarb @macroarb]

@ALBACapMgmt time to bring back the #ReverseMacro machine?

[macroarb @macroarb]

BRAZIL - So bad, Its good https://t.co/bNBDAdLyCz

[macroarb @macroarb]

@jeremie0117 They’re good. Pushed above their weight for decades

[signüll @signulll]

for those who actually took the time to listen to peter thiel's lectures & interviews over the last few years, he explicitly mentions many times that middle management's purpose has expired.

his intellectual influences regularly invoke burnham, who was the west's chief critic of managerialism—considering how influential thiel is now more so than ever before, he has the ear of so many ceo’s. it’ll be interesting to see how landscape shifts with respect to labor dynamics.

there is a reckoning coming for middle management & it could be a bloodbath—would highly recommend reading burnham (published in 1941).. what a fantastic read.

[macroarb @macroarb]

@noahrshinn Make an instinct app please. Lost count of how many times I’ve accidentally messaged someone my instinct query

[macroarb @macroarb]

Porra

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Surpriiiiiiise

[macroarb @macroarb]

@HF_Trader Keep it real with him. He’s not going to learn shit in class either way. Pick whatever gives you the most free time to experiment on the cutting edge.

[macroarb @macroarb]

The oracle has spoken.

[🔮(𝕏ᵀ𝕏) - loracle.hl @loraclexyz]

People are confused about semis dumping and gpu spot price increasing. This is only because demand is moving to open source models, and all the GPUs are being hoarded by the big labs or stuck under commitments, so GPU on the rental market absorb the demand. IMO SpaceX will drop the race, and will fully pivot to compute provider. Thesis is the same, frontier is platauing, reward on training is getting lower, and all of a sudden big labs hoarding gpus will rush to capture the inference margin before it collapses.

[macroarb @macroarb]

Levels to the game https://t.co/PvZUwGu1KZ

[Jared Kubin @JaredKubin]

black mamba work ethic legendary. Not a single successful person I know who isn’t a beast with their schedule. They pay the toll. Tbc… that’s not just sitting in front of screens all day for investors…. Mornings, food, workouts, quiet time, nights, alcohol, reading, music…. All a purpose. Methodical. Carrying the boats. Greatness demands sacrifice. It’s not for everyone.

[macroarb @macroarb]

@annanay Been using it for a while

[macroarb @macroarb]

Block bought Dessa pre Covid 2020. One of the first to launch audio deep fakes, developed by a now current OAI researcher. Six years later, this acquisition has paid off in spades. Wow.

[jack @jack]

We believe voice is the most natural way to interact with intelligence, so we created Dessa, the most authentic full-duplex speech model ever built. Talking with it feels like talking with a person…full of emotion, nuance, pauses, and a natural cadence.

https://t.co/r0qFLdvd6c

[macroarb @macroarb]

@mlmabc I don’t see any ai in the product though

[macroarb @macroarb]

@AgustinLebron3 Facebook