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Bottom line: Prediction markets are no longer fringe—they’re drawing serious money, serious scrutiny, and serious attempts at regulation. This week showed the category’s growing pains and its growing power in equal measure.
Follow for the weekly signal that actually moves the needle.
Here’s your weekly prediction market rundown: A $1M Iran-bet scoop igniting insider-trading alarms, Kalshi shattering March Madness volume records despite NCAA pushback, and a bipartisan Senate bill targeting sports contracts. Here’s what actually mattered.
https://t.co/sqNUxV0Z79
On regulation and governance: a bipartisan Senate bill from Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) would ban sports betting on prediction markets.
DraftKings and Flutter (FanDuel owner) jumped 8% premarket on the news, underscoring how traditional sportsbooks view PMs as direct competition.
🚨NEW: Senators Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) introduce a new bipartisan Senate bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket's US entity, etc.)
Markets are reacting - DraftKings and Flutter (owns FanDuel) are up 8% premarket
Via WSJ:
https://t.co/fS3mF2Rpj6
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Bottom line: Prediction markets hit another inflexion point this week — facing real backlash, regulatory heat, and growing legitimacy from Wall Street and celebrities. The maturation process is accelerating, complete with growing pains.
Follow for the weekly signal that actually moves the needle.
Wild escalation in prediction markets this week: bettors threatening a war reporter after losses, intensifying crackdowns in the US and Argentina, plus Kalshi’s massive $1 Billion March Madness play.
https://t.co/0WIocXSzwe
Regulation and governance pressure intensified.
Democrats introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban government officials from trading prediction markets with insider knowledge (e.g., wars). Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi for illegal gambling. Argentina ordered a nationwide block on Polymarket as unlicensed gambling.
POLICY: Democrats introduce the BETS OFF Act to ban government officials from betting on prediction markets when they have insider knowledge of outcomes.
The bill targets suspected insider trading on events like U.S. operations in Venezuela and Iran.
Bottom line: Prediction markets leveled up this week—stratospheric valuations, global reach, integrity tech—proving they're no longer fringe but a maturing asset class drawing big players. The trajectory is clear: mainstream integration. Follow for more weekly intel that cuts through the noise.
It was an interesting news cycle for prediction markets: valuations exploding toward $20 billion for top platforms, aggressive international expansion into Brazil, and major steps on integrity with Palantir policing sports bets. Bookmark this. Here's what went down this week.
On governance: Underdog's license grab underscores platforms navigating CFTC rules to scale legally, even as PredictIt continues under Aristotle. This shows the sector facing—and embracing—institutional constraints.