Critical Thinker

Forbidden knowledge

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@alanthefisher @CongBoyle If Israel was a genocidal state, why haven’t they used nuclear weapons? Why have they only killed 70,000 people out of ~7.3 million Arabs in Gaza/West Bank/Israel proper? Why would the dead be disproportionally fighting age males per Hamas’s data? Just asking questions.

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@Noneofyourbus89 @SaltyLego @lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris I’m a registered Democrat my dude, and fully expect democrats to take back the house easily. Analysts realized the senate would be insanely hard for Dems up until the past 2 months when the polls started coming out, I just feel like we’ve seen this story before!

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@BirdAppKJ 1) The average of polls shows a roughly 5.5 point difference not 3 2) Polling average is about Talarico +2.5, Paxton +3 3) There’s history of polls underestimating Rs in red states; even if you regress to mean you wind up with 1-2 point adjustment towards Rs

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@Noneofyourbus89 @SaltyLego @lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris I’m counting general elections where the entire country votes, not a year where there are elections in 2 blue states. But you’re right that the polls tend to be accurate or actually underestimate Ds in blue states! The reverse is true in red states

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@ExoticRobotic12 @DrewSav I just don't see it becoming like Virginia or Colorado. I think it's also worth noting that while Georgia trended right, it still voted more GOP than in 2020, it just didn't zoom right like NY/NJ/CA/FL. Country overall might just be more R than before, we'll see.

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@ExoticRobotic12 @DrewSav Lol this is ridiculous. Biden was the only Dem to win GA this century and it was by 0.2%. Yes it's trending Dem, but they're also fairly maxed out with black voters. They need college whites to keep moving left, which may or may not happen once Trump is gone

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@SaltyLego @lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris Since 2014, the polls have overestimated Dems on generic ballot/popular vote in 6 straight elections! Before you say not 2018, once you account for uncontested House races generic ballot was only D +7.3, 538 polling average was D+8.6. Last time polls underestimated Ds was 2012!

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@SaltyLego @lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris Nate silver isn’t much better, but to his credit he at least gave Trump a 30% chance in 2016. G Elliot was above 90%, and Lakshya wasn’t even forecasting back then

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@SaltyLego @lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris 2016: “Hillary 90% chance!” 2018: “Dems lead in polls in MO, IN, IA, FL, OH!” 2020: Polls are fixed this time bc of education weighting!” 2024: “Blue wall is lean Dems, polls were only bad bc of covid!” Fool me once shame on you, fool me 4 times…

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@lxeagle17 @gelliottmorris Both of your models are way too pro Dem lmao

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@themeasuredtake @Acyn Bozeman is a liberal city

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@PollTracker2024 Are they just staggering the release? Would be weird not to poll Senate race

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@PatrickRuffini Is this the 2022, 2018, and 2014? Or does this include 2024 and 2020 presidential elections

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@mainepilled @drunkelections Lol yes it was for sure a toss-up, not like it was the most electoral votes for a Republican since 1988. He was spot on!

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@GorillaHpn @subsix848 @feelsdesperate Kansas definitely isn’t happening if GOP is winning Michigan and Texas

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@GorillaHpn @subsix848 @feelsdesperate Kansas isn’t happening

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@hecubian_devil Uh it’s because Turek is still doing well compared to fundamentals. He’s polling maybe a point or two worse than El Sayed in a state that was 11 points more red. Sand is the one who is drastically overperforming

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@admcrlsn Guarantee they’ll find that the actual result is more Republican than their sample

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@subsix848 @feelsdesperate There’s not really a path for Dems in senate if they lose Michigan and Texas. Would require 5 pickups to get to 51

[Critical Thinker @PredictitD]

@TADStrange89 Your proposal is to have a second election where less educated and lower income people don’t vote? You realize that Georgia does this specifically to hurt black voters right? Only recently has it started to benefit Dems