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[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Ekurhuleni is a dead tie this morning.

Jongizizwe Dlabathi 23%
Xolani Khumalo 23%

Khumalo has been ActionSA's candidate for a year. Dlabathi is one of four
names the ANC still hasn't chosen between, 30 days out.

A confirmed campaign and an unmade decision, priced level.

https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN

#LGE2026 #Ekurhuleni

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

The ANC hasn't picked its mayoral candidates yet. 42 names still on the
table, 31 days out.

The market has picked for them.

Buffalo City: Princess Faku 87%, Ncedo Kumbaca 8%, Simphiwe Dzengwa 4%.
All three are on the ANC's own shortlist. That's 99% of the market priced
on a decision the party hasn't taken.

https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN

#LGE2026 #BuffaloCity #news

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Ipsos: MK on 55% in eThekwini. Enough to take Durban outright.

Our market: MK's candidate Mxolisi Phakathi at 12%.

Not a contradiction. A poll asks who you'll vote for. The market prices
who gets the mayoral chain — and the council picks the mayor, not voters.

https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

On Thursday the ANC, DA, EFF, IFP and ActionSA tore into each other at the
Joburg leaders' debate.

The market's verdict: nothing changed.

Helen Zille was 68% before the debate. She's 68% today.

The only move was underneath — Frank Chikane drifting from 15% to 11%.

https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN

#elections #mayor #predictionsmarkets

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Durban has a new favourite.

IFP's Mkhuleko Hlengwa 34%
DA's Haniff Hoosen 29%

Three days ago it was 32-32. The DA named Hoosen a year ago; the IFP named
Hlengwa on 31 August and launched its manifesto on 20 September.

34 days out: https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN

#elections #news #PredictionMarkets

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

@AlexPPatrick in case it’s useful for the series.

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

News24's Battleground '26 asks: will Zille get over 50% in Joburg?

The market's answer this morning: 68%.

Frank Chikane is second at 15% — and there's now as much money sitting
behind his price as behind hers.

Live odds for all eight metros: https://t.co/IstgAbJQrN.

#mayor

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

eThekwini is now a dead heat.

Haniff Hoosen 32%
Mkhuleko Hlengwa 32%

The market literally cannot separate them, with 37 days to the vote.

All eight metros, live: https://t.co/vl7L9P51t4. #Elections2026 #mayor #predictions #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

30 Aug: Cilliers Brink 28% to stay Tshwane mayor.
Today: 65%.

Durban, meanwhile: 32% vs 30%. Two points apart.

40 days. All eight metros, live:
https://t.co/vl7L9P4tDw

#fypシ゚ #elections #mayor #predictionsmarket #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Durban is the closest mayoral race in South Africa:

DA 28%
MK 26%
ANC 23%
IFP 21%

Four parties, seven points, 48 days out.

And MK's candidate has only held the nomination for eight days.

👇 https://t.co/6vawhhJHzI

#eThekwini #Durban #Elections2026 #predika #predictionsmarket

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

40 minutes ago: 17%
Now: 6%

The CLARITY Act cloture vote just failed. No headline has run yet. The market already knows.

February it was 82%.

That's the difference between a price and a poll.

👇 https://t.co/ctje3MS4jG

#CLARITYAct #Crypto #PredictionMarkets

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

The US Senate votes on the CLARITY Act in 20 minutes.

Yesterday the market gave it 31% of being signed into law this year.

Right now: 17%.

Nothing has happened yet. The money is already moving.

👇 https://t.co/ctje3MS4jG

#CLARITYAct #Crypto #PredictionMarkets

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

23 September. Eight days.

Market says 48% chance the SARB hikes.

If they do, prime goes 10.50% → 10.75%. About R170 a month more on a R1m bond.

July's vote was 4-2 to hold. One member needs to flip.

👇 https://t.co/wypFd2XeE8

#SARB #RepoRate #SouthAfrica #PredictionMarkets

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Nasiphi Moya, 5 days ago: 10%
Nasiphi Moya, today: 30%

ActionSA launched its "5 More Years" campaign on 1 September. The market repriced her within 72 hours.

That's what live odds look like 👇
https://t.co/w4GEGwVx3i

#Tshwane #Pretoria #ActionSA #Elections2026 #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Tshwane rematch.

She removed him in 2024. He's coming back for the job in November.

Cilliers Brink — 67%
Nasiphi Moya — 10%

The market has already picked a winner. Disagree?

👉 https://t.co/oXM5JrzkTN

#Tshwane #Pretoria #Elections2026 #PredictionMarket #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

The ANC's eThekwini shortlist, priced by the market:

Thabani Nyawose — 11%
Nomusa Dube-Ncube — 8%
Mina Soma-Lesoma — 3%

A former KZN Premier is running third in her own party's race.

👇 https://t.co/Kmdrav4eS5

#Durban #eThekwini #ANC #Elections2026 #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Nelson Mandela Bay mayor race:

Odendaal 39%
Lungisa 38%

One point. Sixty-five days out.

All eight metros, live 👇
https://t.co/6vawhhJHzI

#Elections2026 #NelsonMandelaBay #SouthAfrica #predika #predictionsmarket

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Tshwane rematch.

She removed him in 2024. He's coming back for the job in November.

Cilliers Brink — 67%
Nasiphi Moya — 10%

The market has already picked a winner. Disagree?

👉 https://t.co/oXM5JrzkTN

#Tshwane #Pretoria #Elections2026 #PredictionMarket #predika

[Predika | Africa's Prediction Market @PredikaHQ]

Dada Morero is the sitting mayor of Johannesburg.

The market gives him 8% of still being mayor after November.

Why so low? He isn't even the ANC's confirmed candidate — one of three nominees. Two hurdles, not one.

👇 https://t.co/NCA3ks4OAv

#Johannesburg #ANC #Elections2026