$MU I just bought Micron while the entire tech sector is panicking.
Oracle down 10%. Broadcom selling off. MU dragged down in sympathy.
Here's why the panic is my entry—and why Wall Street's "bad news" is actually Micron's bullish signal.
🧵
@laligafraudss Ronaldo and his minions couldnt score a single goal against columbia and were placed columbia in their group. Messi created that path and Ronaldo couldn’t do the same for his team.
A lot of people are paying for downside protection on $MU after this run, and that’s fair. It reports after the bell.
After selling half my position last week. I am looking to re enter on weakness and here is how I am playing the earnings:
Sold to open 1 $MU Jul 17 $750 put @ $17.60. Collected $1,759.
My view: any pullback in $MU is something I’d want to buy. If not at least I get paid to wait.
You’re telling me there’s not a single person at Snap brave enough to tell Evan Spiegel that these glasses look atrocious?
Looks like 3D glasses at an IMAX theater
Bill Gurley says $V & $MA are “heavily threatened” by stablecoins because there is “zero reason” digital payments should still cost 2% to 3%.
USDC can move money in seconds for pennies while earning yield and stablecoins may modernize payments faster than the government can.
We saw this play out in November. Rotation into restaurants. This week feels very similar. Restaurants held up well today and most of the week while money comes out of names that have run up a lot. Congrats if you took profits ahead of the CPI print.
Attacks on Iran make it worse today, but it won’t last. Remember we have midterms coming. And while the headlines scream the war and a 4.2% inflation number, the core came in at 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM — below estimates. Energy accounted for most of the increase, and oil is already hitting an 80s handle. That can come down fast once Trump decides a deal is done.
Good time to stick with what’s working. The rotation/crash will be short-lived.
@FrostyFinances I agree, $NVDA seems really undervalued relative to its current growth rate. However, there is no way of knowing what a 3 or 5 year CAGR is going to be which makes it really hard to underwrite.
I think $RDDT doubles from here.
Reddit spent years building a massive, high-intent audience while barely monetizing it. That is changing fast.
Management is finally scaling the ad platform, and Q1 2026 showed it clearly:
• Ad revenue grew 74% YoY while WAU grew 23% — revenue is far outrunning users
• Global ARPU +44% YoY (U.S. +54%, Intl +51%)
• Advertisers are seeing real ROAS from newer tools like Reddit Max and dynamic product ads
So the question is simple: how far can reach and ARPU and how much more is each user worth?
That's what my model sizes — audience (WAU) × how often they show up (DAU/WAU) × revenue per daily user (ARPU). I anchor to the trailing-twelve-month run-rate.
Current:
• U.S. WAU: ~196M (+10% YoY)
• Intl WAU: ~297M (+33% YoY)
• U.S. annualized ARPU: ~$39 (+54% YoY)
• Intl annualized ARPU: ~$8 (+51% YoY)
5-year assumptions:
• U.S. WAU: ~196M → ~263M (~6% CAGR)
• U.S. ARPU: ~$39 → ~$60 (~9% CAGR)
• Intl WAU: ~297M → ~515M (~12% CAGR)
• Intl ARPU: ~$8 → ~$20 (~20% CAGR)
I keep DAU/WAU mostly stable, so I am not underwriting management’s 100M U.S. DAU goal. That would be upside optionality.
Based on my EPS model and a ~22x forward P/E, I get a year-end 2029 price target of ~$339
Disclosure: Long $RDDT.
Comment “model” and I’ll share the full breakdown.
Most massive IPO in history in SpaceX.
Jensen Huang literally telling us to buy $QCOM and $MRVL.
Koreans creating fake shopping websites to get dopamine hits because daily +/- 8% moves in the KOSPI is not enough.
What a time to be alive in the stock market.
Took chips off the table ahead of Wednesday’s CPI print.
Trimmed my biggest runner $MU into this morning’s strength, it’s faded since. Cleared a few other names, came off margin entirely, raised ~9% cash. 🍿
$MU I just bought Micron while the entire tech sector is panicking.
Oracle down 10%. Broadcom selling off. MU dragged down in sympathy.
Here's why the panic is my entry—and why Wall Street's "bad news" is actually Micron's bullish signal.
🧵
I think $RDDT doubles from here.
Reddit spent years building a massive, high-intent audience while barely monetizing it. That is changing fast.
Management is finally scaling the ad platform, and Q1 2026 showed it clearly:
• Ad revenue grew 74% YoY while WAU grew 23% — revenue is far outrunning users
• Global ARPU +44% YoY (U.S. +54%, Intl +51%)
• Advertisers are seeing real ROAS from newer tools like Reddit Max and dynamic product ads
So the question is simple: how far can reach and ARPU and how much more is each user worth?
That's what my model sizes — audience (WAU) × how often they show up (DAU/WAU) × revenue per daily user (ARPU). I anchor to the trailing-twelve-month run-rate.
Current:
• U.S. WAU: ~196M (+10% YoY)
• Intl WAU: ~297M (+33% YoY)
• U.S. annualized ARPU: ~$39 (+54% YoY)
• Intl annualized ARPU: ~$8 (+51% YoY)
5-year assumptions:
• U.S. WAU: ~196M → ~263M (~6% CAGR)
• U.S. ARPU: ~$39 → ~$60 (~9% CAGR)
• Intl WAU: ~297M → ~515M (~12% CAGR)
• Intl ARPU: ~$8 → ~$20 (~20% CAGR)
I keep DAU/WAU mostly stable, so I am not underwriting management’s 100M U.S. DAU goal. That would be upside optionality.
Based on my EPS model and a ~22x forward P/E, I get a year-end 2029 price target of ~$339
Disclosure: Long $RDDT.
Comment “model” and I’ll share the full breakdown.