PricedIn

Unfiltered conversations with prediction market founders & traders.

No hype, just signal. Hosted by @hardikthecoder🎙️

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

finance is the most obvious market for event contracts. somehow everybody skipped it.

but the product was never the hard part.

distribution is the last moat left. code gets copied. the pipe that brings people in doesn’t.

product gets you in the game. distribution decides who’s still standing.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

The @PricedInpod Full podcast episode with @v4vihan, CEO of @omnibook.

The Hidden Gem of Prediction Markets

Part 1: Building an Exchange for Finance

00:33 Intro
01:00 From Quant Trader to Founder
05:50 Prediction Markets Became Sports Betting
Part 2: Security Over Ideology
15:36 Why Most Prediction Markets Get Hacked
18:37 Not Everything Needs to Be On-Chain

Part 3: The Trader Experience

22:00 A Terminal, Not a Sportsbook
Part 4: The Regulatory Frontier

33:00 Is Regulation the Real Bottleneck?

Part 5: Rapid Fire

40:00 Take More Risks

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

everybody’s building for politics and sports. finance is the obvious market nobody touched. good conversation with

@v4vihan
why distribution, not product, decides who survives.

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

most people are building Polymarket clones.

@lmc_security is building the thing that comes after them.

Ep. 3 of PricedIn, dropping soon.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

one exchange for short-term event contracts on every financial market in the world.

equities. commodities. indices. currencies. crypto. compute. real estate. electricity.

if it’s a market or a real-world asset, you’ll be able to trade events on it. that’s @Omnibook_xyz.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Everyone has an opinion on whether prediction markets are gambling.

Almost nobody has a definition.

@v4vihan, CEO of @Omnibook_xyz, the hidden gem of prediction markets, sat down with us on @PricedInpod and gave us his actual definition. No fluff, no PR answer.

We also got into:
→ Why OmniBook said no to sports and elections
→ Turning any financial view into a trade in seconds
→ GPU rent, housing, crude, BTC, all on one order book
→ Where prediction markets go from here

Clip below👇
Full episode drops tomorrow🎙️.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

copy every line of code, every server, every piece of NSE’s tech. turn it on.

have you rebuilt the NSE?

no. you’ve built an empty room.

the real product of an exchange isn’t the software. it’s the liquidity. the traders, the market makers, the depth. that’s what you’re actually paying for.

this is why exchanges are one of the best post-AI businesses. ask Claude or Codex to build an exchange and you’ll have one in a weekend. software is commoditized now. liquidity isn’t. the moat is the people, not the code.

it’s also why most new prediction markets fail.

the top market makers, Citadel, HRT, Virtu, XTX, won’t quote on an exchange with nobody on it. it’s not worth their time. so most teams pay subsidies to second-tier market makers. it works until the subsidies stop. then they leave, and the liquidity leaves with them.

the other path: become the market maker on your own exchange. harder, slower, but it’s liquidity you actually own.

@v4vihan broke this down better than anyone I’ve talked to. full conversation dropping soon on @PricedInpod.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Today I’m announcing “Next Up Predictions”, a deep dive into prediction markets 🎙️

Podcasting on @PricedInpod

Headlines tell you what happened. Prediction markets tell you what happens next. Billions are being traded on elections, rates, sports and culture, and most people still don’t understand how it works.

So I started a podcast to talk to the people who do.

The concept is simple: unfiltered conversations. Casual format, no script, no PR talking points. Founders building the rails and traders making the calls, talking about whatever they want.

Already recorded with:
@vanishree_rao
@lmc_security
@SteveFlanders22
@v4vihan

Full episodes dropping on @PricedInpod

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Most people think prediction markets are about betting.

They're not.

They're about resolution — deciding what actually happened. And that single problem is where 99% of them quietly break.

On the latest @PricedInpod episode, @kash_bot founder said something that reframed the whole industry for me:

"AI isn't just the best way to resolve markets. It's the only way."

Here's why that's not hype👇

Think about what "permissionless" actually means. Anyone, anywhere, can spin up a market. A 15-minute market. A 5-minute one. Something hyper-niche about their own community that no analyst on Earth has ever heard of.

Now ask: who resolves it?

UMA token holders? A centralized desk like @Kalshi ? At that volume, at that speed, across infinite micro-markets — it's physically impossible to do it by hand. The math just doesn't work.

So you're left with two options:
→ Kill permissionless (defeats the point)
→ Automate resolution completely

They chose the hard one.
But here's the part that stuck with me:
"There are a million ways to make a mistake with AI. There's only one way to do it right."

Everyone's bolting an LLM onto their product and calling it innovation. The real work is invisible — reading PDFs, turning live streams into transcripts, feeding those into models to understand context, then matching that against what actually happened in reality.

That's not a feature. That's a company inside a company.

And they built it in-house. 12+ months. Not outsourced. Why?

Because whoever owns resolution owns trust. And in prediction markets, trust IS the product.

You can't rent that. You can't buy it off a shelf. You have to own the entire experience end to end — or you don't really own anything.

The teams racing to become "the next Polymarket" are fighting over the wrong layer.

The moat was never the markets.

It was always the oracle.🧠

Full episode dropping soon. This 3-min clip is worth your time👇

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

most people are building Polymarket clones.

@lmc_security is building the thing that comes after them.

Ep. 3 of PricedIn, dropping soon.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

@PricedInpod Episode 3 is coming.

everyone’s watching Polymarket and Kalshi. @lmc_security is building for what comes after.

social-native prediction markets. creators pricing niche events for their own communities, permissionless, across every jurisdiction. that’s where he sees the next billion-dollar market heading.

full conversation with @kash_bot CEO, dropping soon.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

@PricedInpod Episode 3 is coming.

everyone’s watching Polymarket and Kalshi. @lmc_security is building for what comes after.

social-native prediction markets. creators pricing niche events for their own communities, permissionless, across every jurisdiction. that’s where he sees the next billion-dollar market heading.

full conversation with @kash_bot CEO, dropping soon.

[Steve @SteveFlanders22]

it's always a pleasure to chat with people who think deeply about prediction markets, and @hardikthecoder definitely qualifies

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

we're coming.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Guys, new pod eps w @Polymarket proven GW & PnL traders + @xomarket.

Crazy pred mkt content incoming.

Best fcking pod.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Guys, new pod eps w @Polymarket proven GW & PnL traders + @xomarket.

Crazy pred mkt content incoming.

Best fcking pod.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

everyone building prediction market leverage asked “how do we liquidate fast enough?”

Stefan asked a different question: what if you never liquidate at all?

turns out these positions don’t move like derivatives. they move like insurance. so he priced them like an actuary, not a trader.

charge the expected loss upfront as a premium. the risk is covered before the trade even opens. one position going to zero doesn’t touch the pool.

this is the clip that reframed how I think about the entire space.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

the “prediction markets are just gambling” take is lazy.

every new technology hits a moment where misuse shows up. the answer is guardrails, not a shutdown. we’re repeating the same mistake we’ve made with AI and every tech before it.

shutting it down doesn’t protect anyone. it just holds the country back.

@vanishree_rao breaking it down on @PricedInpod.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

Arg vs PMs applies to all tech ever built.

AI misused constantly; we & China still race to win via reg, not shutdown.

PMs no different: proper laws & guardrails, not a ban.

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

GM☀️

1x is over. Leverage is coming to prediction markets.

Great one with @SteveFlanders22 of @Lattica

Episodes dropping. Stay tuned.

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

99 to zero in half a second. that’s the whole reason prediction market leverage keeps failing.

@SteveFlanders22 broke this down better than anyone I’ve talked to on PricedIn so far.

[PricedIn @PricedInpod]

99 to zero in half a second. that’s the whole reason prediction market leverage keeps failing.

@SteveFlanders22 broke this down better than anyone I’ve talked to on PricedIn so far.

[Hardik @hardikthecoder]

why prediction markets have no real leverage, explained in one line:

a position can go from 99 to zero in half a second.

you can’t liquidate that. you can’t underwrite against it. every lending model in DeFi assumes prices move smoothly, and these don’t.

@SteveFlanders22 from @Lattica on how he solved it after 8 months: stop trying to liquidate, price the risk upfront instead.

new on @PricedInpod.