Prime Source

Prime Source is an Israeli-based political risk consultancy offering geopolitical analysis and risk assessment services.

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Short Thread on Israel-Egypt relations https://t.co/qR8TXzjPrE

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Are Netanyahu and al-Sisi actively helping each other to remain in power?
Here are the facts:
1. Egypt has been working diligently, particularly over the past weekend, to prevent Gaza from exploding on Israel, a development that could damage Netanyahu’s electoral prospects -->

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Israel is better positioned today to carry out an effective strike against Iran’s nuclear program than ever, argues our CEO @ilanjonas on Bloomberg https://t.co/msnsX7J82R

[Bloomberg Opinion @opinion]

If Iran restarts its nuclear program, Israel is far better prepared to strike https://t.co/mOz2g6x2fl

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Reminder: the Mossad operation ended in Jan. According to Israeli media tonight the Iranians understood in real time that the archive was stolen. The Iranian drone was sent and shot down on Feb 10, an incident which sparked the recent escalation b/w Israel and Iran in Syria.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Recent revelations re the operation to steal Iran's nuclear archive may lead to the conclusion that the failed Iranian attempt to attack Israel with an armed drone last Feb was in fact a retaliatory strike and not an unprecedented, unprovoked attack as Israel tried to frame it >>

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

3/ Israel hopes that by demonstrating its readiness to live up to its red lines even at the cost of an all-out war that could threaten Moscow's strategic interests, Putin would stop Iran from moving closer to the Israeli border, currently Israel’s no. 1 strategic goal in Syria.

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

1/ Our analysis of Israel's T4 strike: The strategic goal of the attack was not to damage or destroy the Iranian drone program in Syria. There is no strategic logic in provoking Iran in a manner that could risk wider confrontation to achieve only a temporary, tactical gain. >>>

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

2/ Rather, the strike was probably meant to push the Russians to proactively prevent the Assad regime and the Iranians from diverting their forces and resources to the Syrian Golan after completing their takeover of Ghouta by demonstrating to Putin how high the stakes are. >>>

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

3. Hezbollah does not currently possess missiles capable of hitting pinpoint targets inside Israel.
4. Hezbollah will not have the capability for mass production of such accurate missiles in 2018 and 2019.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Dramatic headlines in IDF Chief of Staff's Passover interview to Maariv daily:
1. Israel operated in Syria after the downing of its F-16 last month.
2. The Iranians "do not dare" to approach the Syrian Golan for fear of the Israeli response >>>

https://t.co/mkTf1Ye7K1

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Interesting piece of information that went unnoticed: @AmbDennisRoss claimed last week that the Iranian drone which Israel shot down was ARMED. Israeli officials, including PM Netanyahu today in Munich, did not confirm that info. https://t.co/ZGZcN7IE6F

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Q & A | The police recommended to indict Netanyahu. What's next?
https://t.co/gpJzYJitnH

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

2. For the first time, Netanyahu threatens to act against Iran itself “if necessary”, and not only against its proxies.
3. Netanyahu equates Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to the Houtis in Yemen – i.e., considers them as an Iranian proxy.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Three noteworthy points from Netanyahu’s speech in Munich today:
1. Netanyahu effectively threatens the Syrian regime by saying that if Assad invites Iran into Syria, Israel will deviate from its long-standing policy of non-intervention in the civil war there >>>

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Notably, both parties were careful not to cross red lines: Israel struck heavily in Syria, but not in Lebanon. Syria, for its part, fired heavily on Israeli warplanes, but not on Israeli communities. As long as these red lines are kept, further escalation is unlikely.

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

ANALYSIS | Despite the exceptional violence of the past few hours in the north, we are unlikely to see further escalation in the short-term >>>

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

According to Israeli sources, this is what the "buffer zone" separating #Israel from Iranian proxies could look like in southern #Syria following the US-Russia-Jordan agreement

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

#ISIS's so-called "Caliphate" is poised to fully disappear in the coming months, if not weeks #Syria #Iraq

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

#KRG’s announcement on suspension of the referendum unlikely to pave the way for negotiations with the #Baghdad
https://t.co/U4E7GQELON …

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

As Kurdish forces conclude the battle for #Raqqah, they are likely to focus on Deir ez-Zor where they are competing with regime forces

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

As #Iraq-i forces capture #Kirkuk, Washington's mediation will be key to solving the crisis
https://t.co/rCGe3yyhPf