Ilan Jonas

Founder & CEO at Prime Source, Middle East-based political risk consultancy (@PrimeSourceME). Former Chief of Staff to Israeli FM.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

This chain of events could be a coincidence, but more likely, Sisi is helping Netanyahu to get reelected in return for Netanyahu helping Sisi to remain in power for the next 15 years by assisting him to secure US support

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Are Netanyahu and al-Sisi actively helping each other to remain in power?
Here are the facts:
1. Egypt has been working diligently, particularly over the past weekend, to prevent Gaza from exploding on Israel, a development that could damage Netanyahu’s electoral prospects -->

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

2. On Friday, a few days after his meeting with Netanyahu, Trump invited Sisi to visit Washington on April 9, shortly before Egyptian parliament will vote on the constitutional amendments that will allow Sisi to remain in power until 2034, thereby signaling US support of Sisi -->

[Efi Triger אפי טריגר @efitriger]

https://t.co/0OykqxQxxd

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Israel is better positioned today to carry out an effective strike against Iran’s nuclear program than ever, argues our CEO @ilanjonas on Bloomberg https://t.co/msnsX7J82R

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Reminder: the Mossad operation ended in Jan. According to Israeli media tonight the Iranians understood in real time that the archive was stolen. The Iranian drone was sent and shot down on Feb 10, an incident which sparked the recent escalation b/w Israel and Iran in Syria.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Recent revelations re the operation to steal Iran's nuclear archive may lead to the conclusion that the failed Iranian attempt to attack Israel with an armed drone last Feb was in fact a retaliatory strike and not an unprecedented, unprovoked attack as Israel tried to frame it >>

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Thread re the alleged Israeli attack on T4

https://t.co/8WbvdT5Zx3

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

1/ Our analysis of Israel's T4 strike: The strategic goal of the attack was not to damage or destroy the Iranian drone program in Syria. There is no strategic logic in provoking Iran in a manner that could risk wider confrontation to achieve only a temporary, tactical gain. >>>

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

@DavidADaoud cc: @AAhronheim

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

@DavidADaoud I believe that was a joke. MBS are the acronyms of Meir Ben Shabbat, so when EiZenkot was asked whether he met with MBS, so he said “Yes, with Meir Ben Shabbat”

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

3. Hezbollah does not currently possess missiles capable of hitting pinpoint targets inside Israel.
4. Hezbollah will not have the capability for mass production of such accurate missiles in 2018 and 2019.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Dramatic headlines in IDF Chief of Staff's Passover interview to Maariv daily:
1. Israel operated in Syria after the downing of its F-16 last month.
2. The Iranians "do not dare" to approach the Syrian Golan for fear of the Israeli response >>>

https://t.co/mkTf1Ye7K1

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Q & A | The police recommended to indict Netanyahu. What's next?
https://t.co/gpJzYJitnH

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

2. For the first time, Netanyahu threatens to act against Iran itself “if necessary”, and not only against its proxies.
3. Netanyahu equates Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to the Houtis in Yemen – i.e., considers them as an Iranian proxy.

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Three noteworthy points from Netanyahu’s speech in Munich today:
1. Netanyahu effectively threatens the Syrian regime by saying that if Assad invites Iran into Syria, Israel will deviate from its long-standing policy of non-intervention in the civil war there >>>

[Ilan Jonas @ilanjonas]

Interesting piece of information that went unnoticed: @AmbDennisRoss claimed last week that the Iranian drone which Israel shot down was ARMED. Israeli officials, including PM Netanyahu today in Munich, did not confirm that info. https://t.co/ZGZcN7IE6F

[Washington Institute @WashInstitute]

Before next shoe drops in #Syria, US needs to get blunt w/Putin & ask EU officials to warn #Iran about renewed sanctions - @AmbDennisRoss https://t.co/82m8vN7XA6

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

Notably, both parties were careful not to cross red lines: Israel struck heavily in Syria, but not in Lebanon. Syria, for its part, fired heavily on Israeli warplanes, but not on Israeli communities. As long as these red lines are kept, further escalation is unlikely.

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

ANALYSIS | Despite the exceptional violence of the past few hours in the north, we are unlikely to see further escalation in the short-term >>>

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

According to Israeli sources, this is what the "buffer zone" separating #Israel from Iranian proxies could look like in southern #Syria following the US-Russia-Jordan agreement

[Prime Source @PrimeSourceME]

#KRG’s announcement on suspension of the referendum unlikely to pave the way for negotiations with the #Baghdad
https://t.co/U4E7GQELON …