Princip

Never kill yourself

[Muhammad @zulali]

Claude reverse engineered my 32-year-old Jeep. Then it started controlling it.

Edited with Fable 5.2

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

We've derisked quite a bit. After derisking higher we kept re-adding. That has completely stopped.

This isn't purely an alpha based call. I don't have a good read on the market, we're up a lot into year end and want to crystallize gains, and I'm worried about what's coming.

Short term, crypto may be uninvestable. Democrats are probably going Gensler 2.0. There are plenty of nasty outcomes:

- DATs made illegal and forced to unwind
-Warren Banking Oversight
- Protocols pushing memecoins getting prosecuted
- Privacy tokens treated as hostile

Mid to long term, this is obviously a net good for Bitcoin. Democrats will likely accelerate spending and fiat debasement, and the industry may come out better once it gets "cleaned up."

Expect a tremendous amount of volatility. It will present incredible buying opportunities.

Note: The democrats cannot replace the CFTC chair who has been ruling favorably for stock perps and DeFi generally, so some assets may not be totally evisercated.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

Pre Market Thoughts - 10 Nov 26

Despite what was arguably a very strong FUD - NVDA closed (178.67) higher than its open (173.18). This was interesting for me to note - of course if it ripped up above 188 - that would have been an even better signal.

In Asian trading, thus far the KOSPI is up about 4.7%, while the TAIEX is up 7.5% and also the NKY up 3%. SPX did almost 250 points yesterday - from the opening lows around 7300 to closing around 7550... On FinX - sentiment is that this is the dead cat bounce with many people looking to get short into it.

On the calendar - we have CPI today in the US morning, followed by CRWV earnings after market close. Later on in the week, we will also have NBIS earnings. These earnings are important (not just because i have a huge neocloud exposure) but because neos was the ground zero for the nuke in semis this time round. The earnings will be pivotal for the market to digest the information and decide on the direction going forward.

ANT has also released new Fable 5.2 - this has been quite eagerly awaited since their previous releases months ago. They also made a mistake in their IPO filing and will be providing new numbers soon.... I guess maybe it was prepared by a hallucinating agent? or human?

Crypto has been hugging along the 73-74k support zone for BTC. What has held up? Look at it yourself! That's the hint.

Good luck!

[volume @usevolume]

🚨BREAKING: Claude can now see what’s going viral.

Every morning, Volume scans 10,000+ posts across 19 niches and tells your agent exactly what content your business should make to go viral and market your product.

This is insane.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/yYhHqFBUZn

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

And people ask why I’m still bullish on Japanese equities.

My favorite value investors are either in U.S. private equity, or in Japanese public equities.

Target rich environments.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

https://t.co/8AwgpVJckD

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Wonder if there's a trade here longing CRWV + IREN in the anticipation of Elon cashing in the spread in multiples between $SPCX and these Neoclouds.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

Pre Market Thoughts - 6 Nov 26

Historic crash across the indexes last night in US trading. We had NDX down almost 6% with SPX also down ~3%...Meanwhile AI single names took a brunt of the damage being down 15% -20% on average.

Factor wise - momentum has suffered the largest drawdown since, outstripping levels seen in the dotcom bust.

For any AI bulls - this is what you ideally want to see. Which is the index and wealth destruction in other sectors. Only then can you get policy support to come. The largest component of GDP growth comes from the AI/semis sector - so if its really over - nothing is going to escape this blast radius for awhile.

$IREN reported last night - this is one of the trashiest names in the neocloud sector - they have been plagued by delays and correspondingly their stock has suffered greatly. It is down ~57% ytd. I think the destruction in neos has been so lopsided that names like IREN are at 7B marketcap which is effectively trading close to their net book value. Given the shortage of compute, this makes the land and the asset value of $IREN extremely valuable - and i think it could be a name for a buyout.

$IREN also has some interesting tidbits in the earnings - it said that its recent customer contracts came with a 90% prepayment. This was 40-45% last quarter. Which tells you that there is so much demand for compute (as evidenced by the GPU rental rates at less than 1Y payback) - figures are 22M/MW for 90% prepayment and 40M/MW for no prepayment. This is basically coming in at less than half a year of payback for GPUs only and about 1 year payback for GPU + Shell construction. Shells have a life of 15-20 years.

On my end, i am fully allocated across in Neos - my main picks are NBIS, IREN, SHAZ. (for example, SHAZ has $18 of net cash per share, trading at 20) ....how can i pass this up? I also have MU/SNDK/DRAM. My levels into these on the value purchases are 115 for NBIS, 17.35 for IREN and 20 for SHAZ, 667 for MU and 39 for DRAM ...screenshots posted on tele channel for proof of no larp.

It is a fools task to try to time the bottom - for me i am not sure if i bought the bottom or not. But i dont really care about that. These are zones where i think there is enough value and so i will grudgingly bid (with alot of fear)

In crypto - $BTC has performed extremely strong vs what has happened in equities. I like tickers like $ZEC and $PEPE.

I will write a more detailed account of NBIS/SHAZ/IREN over the weekend.

Good luck!

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

The best analogy for building wealth is rock climbing. Once you reach a new ledge, you secure it. That becomes your new foundation, and protecting it becomes part of an evolving strategy.

Each new level of wealth should trigger a reset in your mindset and a broadening of strategy. You now have more to protect and also more to work with, and the risks you take should reflect that.

That doesn’t mean you can’t be ambitious. Take big bets when the opportunity deserves it. But big bets can’t be born from what everyone else is doing and every theme has a due date. So structure those bets so that if the next climb fails, you fall back to the ledge you’ve already secured.

The entire climb can never be on the line.

I’m sure today many many people fell back many ledges, and many died falling to the ground.

[👣ℙ𝕖𝕕𝕣𝕠'𝕤 𝕄𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔𝕙𝕖🇺🇲 @OfAthenry]

Me, when my wife asks me how it went on the job site today:

[Princip @Principoshi]

@hosseeb @Noahpinion 'who won the Second World War, and why' is definitely over the top

[Wide Awake Media @wideawake_media]

The exact moment Republicans lost the midterms.

[Ja Leto @_falsi1ke]

I have been watching this every morning for 11 months now.

[degentrading @degentradingLSD]

1/n - How to make money with Gambit Terminal (part 1)

[Lessons @onlypreneurs]

In a weird way, everybody is rooting for you. When you go to a job interview, the interviewer wants you to be amazing so they don’t have to look anymore. when you go on a date, the person wants to have an amazing date with you. If you make a piece of content, people want to see amazing pieces of content and they have no problem if it’s yours.

the instant you get into the mindset that people want you to do well, your entire world gets better. And you’ll be shocked to know this pattern keeps repeating in different areas of life.

[Adam Robinson @RetentionAdam]

2019: I want a $25m ARR biz w/ >35 FTE.
https://t.co/ANEPscKEA7 today: $23m ARR, 27 FTE.

2024: $10m ARR w/ 3 FTEs is the dream.
https://t.co/MvqDOarpoh Today: $9.5m ARR, 3 FTE’s

Today: I want a $1B ARR 1 man startup.
https://t.co/jbtMoQoTij in 2028: …to be continued...

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Weekend hack: HackerTube. I was annoyed with YouTube's recommendations so I had Claude filter down 43M comments over 20 years of HN to 6,454 videos that keep being recommended. *Significantly* better viewing experience, ~2 hours with Opus 5.5:
https://t.co/JIhXN7OSh1

- Excellent recs without any logins (state is kept in local browser session)
- Thumbnail is a representative frame from middle of the video instead of the super duper A/B test hyper-optimized user uploads
- Underlying data from the comment analysis as one zip file, point your Claude at it and ask for your own version
- HackerTube Longs ✊

A bit more on the process:
I use Claude Code (desktop app for Mac), Opus 5.5 on Medium effort as my default. I only talk to Claude and have it do everything, the only "manual work" I helped with in tandem was in the browser (reminiscent of MenuGen): 1) I had to create some kind of API key from Google Cloud UI to query YouTube for video metadata, 2) I booted up a VPS box for serving and 3) I bought the domain name. Once the box was up I gave Claude the IP and told it update, secure, harden, deploy and optimize the code, and it did the whole thing.

Many awesome projects that would have normally taken weeks/months even can now be few-shotted for breakfast. What else are we not thinking of.

[@levelsio @levelsio]

What's left to do when AI can build everything?

Many things actually!