ProFootballLogic

NFL statistical analysis. Team ratings & game projections modeled on ratings and associated point value of every NFL player.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@Josh53311066139 @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL He didn't maintain possession through the ground. You can't have a catch if you don't survive the ground. Therefore, it can't be a catch.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@ToolmanTA @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL "After Cooks hit the ground" is irrelevant, whether or not a defender is involved in the play. He didn't "survive the ground". You have to "survive the ground" whether or not you're being touched.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@FloridaGirl_321 @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL If the defender was not there and the ball came out at the same timing as it did, no one is arguing that it would be a catch and fumble. But you'd have to actually argue that in order to say this was a catch & down.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@jos24929 @renbutler2 @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL A player can't complete a catch without surviving the ground. This is true whether or not he's being touched. Imagine the defender didn't touch the ball but touched the player, and the ball came out the same, then you'd want that to be a completion?

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@WallaceJBone @renbutler2 @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL Then why didn't you place a bet before the game based on that logic?

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@legacyglobalpar @EvBerryhill @ClayTravis @NFL Presumably "the money" was known info BEFORE the game was played, right? So what's stopping you from using that logic to make millions with that info?

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@nashvegas__ @DerekMarich @ClayTravis Frankly it doesn't matter who had the ball initially. If a WR is by himself, catches it but it pops out when he hits the ground, and pops into a defender's hands, it's an INT. You simply can't have a "catch + down by contact" play without surviving the ground.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@Buffamafia @ClayTravis And yet you had this information before the game and didn't place a bet yourself?

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@BigBendChisos @Jerry__Grey @ClayTravis If that was the rule for all catches then there'd be tons of extra fumbles and everyone would hate it.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@TheodoreRoosev8 @cogolfnguns @ClayTravis But a catch/incomplete switch can't depend on whether you're touched down or not. It only depends on whether you completed the process and survived the ground or not.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@TheodoreRoosev8 @cogolfnguns @ClayTravis Consider two plays:
1) WR on his own doesn't survive ground = incomplete
2) WR touched while going to ground, doesn't survive ground = incomplete
To say the BUF/DEN play should be a catch, you'd have to say that #2 is also a catch...

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@NateSilver538 Another interesting question would be whether Home teams are more or less likely to go for it on 4th down. If there is a distinction it could favor one side, and that impact would increase as going for 4th down has become more common.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@NateSilver538 Would be fascinating to see a study of whether reversed calls more often favored the Away team. Have to think it would and relatively significantly.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

Only 1 of 8 division favorites won. 6 of 8 division winners came from outside the top 15 ranked teams.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

This has to be one of the most surprising NFL playoff fields in recent history

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@bburkeESPN Generally agree, but at the extremes it could be argued that if the miss-2pc-still-win scenario is so unlikely (say 1%), then maybe there is >1% increase in something like a D pass interference call favoring a home team if the 2pc play is during a bigger moment.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

@DeanO_Lytics Always been curious about how so many NFL linemen are described as "playing too high". It seems like mostly a function of endurance/effort. Hard to believe it's actually a technique issue.

[ProFootballLogic @ProFBLogic]

Does anyone else find it obnoxious that both ESPN & NFL Network commentators see the draft picks before viewers, and then play a silly game of acting like they're predicting who will be taken when they already know full well who was?