Dowell Myers

Prof. of policy, planning and demography at USC; expert housing, immigration, children / seniors / Millennials, & racial change. Demog narrative & viz.

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

New crisis of plunging residential mobility rates for renters in the US--why? Article in Housing Studies links shortages, falling homeownership, Millennials, affordability.... a puzzle to unravel. Paywall but summary here (1/n) #thread https://t.co/bIQzN1HzKK

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@ProducerCities Austin (Travis co) is incredible. Just a hint of aging starting on its intake. But virtually no outflow later…ever!

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@LeeHepner Here’s what’s really depressing: the bulk of California’s housing shortage was accrued BEFORE 2019, and now the cost escalation post 2019 offers little hope of building more so we can catch up

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@ProducerCities Microdata with migration questions for multiple locations and geographic scales provide “a lot of rope” for different entanglements!

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@ProducerCities These are annual average gross in-movers or net? Or there are annual average gross local movers? Or these are combined local movers and gross in-movers?

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@ProducerCities After 2 decades of encouraging centralization, now it’s back sprawl again, or at least decentralization to a web of outer urban small places

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@KAErdmann So the rate falls because there are more renters (young people released from parents homes). Official owner rate is owners/HHs, but HHs are currently suppressed, so rate (blue line) is inflated. A false measure of prosperity for sure!

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@kendalljayyzhxu 1050

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@Croesus_BTC @smarterwebuk @asjwebley Bravo to the SWC team! May the confetti keep on flying

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@asjwebley Extraordinary family roots for launching such upward mobility

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@mnolangray Amen

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@Arden_2210 18

[Daryl Fairweather, PhD | Chief Economist @FairweatherPhD]

DOJ subpoenas the Fed. 🚨
If the Fed loses independence to political and legal pressure, investors flee the US.
This will result in:
💸 devalued dollar
📈 higher inflation
🏠 higher mortgage rates
Watch the video for a breakdown of what's happening and why you should care.

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

Great explanations here—can all these factors be contributors? Seems true—the 3 by Lambert, plus Erdmann, and also Wake’s supply intricacies. But demand side is poorly represented.

First, demand is much quicker to revive in each cycle than supply, with the bidding process pushing up prices, which incites higher price *expectations* and even more demand.

Second, why the upward drift? Prices are sticky on the downside, because home buyers are invested and will attempt to avoid selling at a loss. After all, owners in middle age are prepared to often stay more than 20 years in their homes.

Third, the roots of demand are poorly understood by housing economists. Income and credit have strong marginal effect, but the potential quantity of demand is derived from the number of people moving through critical ages for household formation and home buying. It’s not a steady flow but driven by larger or smaller age waves. Housing demography is at the root, as explained in the 2025 RSF census article on Misalignment of Housing Growth and Population Trends (open access).

Failure to plan for generational size differences led to grievous policy errors in 2008-10 and the housing shortages that continue today.

Housing is more complicated the deeper we look!

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@mnolangray Great point! But this cohort chart appears to stop with 2014 data. After that things really heated up. Show us more? Millennials caught up a lot (peak Millennial born 1990).

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@NickWaranoff @TomSteyer Strong point about slow population growth nixing need for more housing? Okay, who wants to take this on?

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@Songofaflea @RickPalaciosJr @DiMartinoBooth Sounds right! Why did ZIRP end?

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@Saveourcoast24 @RickPalaciosJr Yes, and that about describes all our young adult children. Do they really count? Ask Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@michael_wiebe This says it all very clearly!

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@mnolangray 10 units is great! Also needs 1 or 2 street spots for temporary unloading of delivery vehicles. Plus resident parking underground.

[Dowell Myers @ProfDowellMyers]

@johnarnold That water jug is clearly over regulated (??)