Real example from my Tout Wars AL-Only auction on Saturday.
Kevin McGonigle’s projections had ranged from 9 to 17 HR.
That gap surfaced in the Projection Divergence Engine in ProjectingX IQ and it directly led to me buying him.
Here’s why the projections disagree. 🧵
The price of ProjectingX IQ has been reduced for the remainder of the season!
⚾️Quickly filter for skill changes like BatSpd and Barrel% gainers, or Stuff+ and pitch velocity decliners
⚾️Identify xwOBA underperformers and SIERA overachievers, plus more
Starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers from this week's Performance Intelligence update.
Are you buying Jake Irvin despite the 8.00 ERA...but with a SwStk% and strikeout rate surge over a small sample so far?
Performance Intelligence is now live.
Track real skill changes (pitch velocity, bat speed, Stuff+, etc.) and spot gaps between results and underlying performance (ERA vs xERA, wOBA vs xwOBA, etc.).
Updated weekly. Built for in-season edge.
Get access: https://t.co/tc797r0ZRD
Performance Intelligence is now live.
Track real skill changes (pitch velocity, bat speed, Stuff+, etc.) and spot gaps between results and underlying performance (ERA vs xERA, wOBA vs xwOBA, etc.).
Updated weekly. Built for in-season edge.
Get access: https://t.co/tc797r0ZRD
Final Projection Intelligence update is now live.
The edge now shifts from projections → signals.
Performance Intelligence launches Apr 2:
• Skill movement (bat speed, velocity)
• Results vs skills (ERA vs SIERA/xERA, xwOBA gaps)
Early season edges are different.
Projection Intelligence has been updated for this week (batters + pitchers).
One thing that stood out:
Some positions have almost no separation across tiers, while others fall off a cliff quickly.
Which position do you think thins out the fastest in your drafts?
If a player’s projection jumps just because you moved him from 450 PA to 600 PA…
you don’t have a projection.
You have a playing time guess disguised as analysis.
Real example from my Tout Wars AL-Only auction on Saturday.
Kevin McGonigle’s projections had ranged from 9 to 17 HR.
That gap surfaced in the Projection Divergence Engine in ProjectingX IQ and it directly led to me buying him.
Here’s why the projections disagree. 🧵
The Projection Divergence Engine didn’t tell me to buy McGonigle.
It showed me where projections disagreed, which forced me to investigate the assumption behind the forecasts.
That investigation led directly to an auction decision.
That’s the idea behind ProjectingX IQ.
@MaysCopeland Fair point. Divergence is just one signal - it flags where projections disagree on assumptions.
The other 3 engines help price that risk in drafts.
Then during the season the Performance Intelligence engines track whether those assumptions are actually changing.
Projection Intelligence update is live.
One new signal:
The projections' playing time forecasts disagree whether Kevin McGonigle opens the season as the Tigers' starting SS!
Updated Batter + Pitcher platforms are available to subscribers.
https://t.co/BEGUZLa6oQ
Consensus projections are comfortable.
But the biggest draft edges often come from the players projection systems can’t agree on.
Disagreement highlights where assumptions differ - and where the market may be overconfident.
@TheTinDoor Fair point, results ultimately matter.
The AL Tout Wars roster is public now if you want to take a look.
The goal of ProjectingX IQ is improving the framework behind the decisions that build a roster, not generating one “correct” board.