ProjectingX IQ

The Intelligence Platform for Serious Fantasy Baseball Players
Built by @MikePodhorzer

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Real example from my Tout Wars AL-Only auction on Saturday.

Kevin McGonigle’s projections had ranged from 9 to 17 HR.

That gap surfaced in the Projection Divergence Engine in ProjectingX IQ and it directly led to me buying him.

Here’s why the projections disagree. 🧵

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

The price of ProjectingX IQ has been reduced for the remainder of the season!

⚾️Quickly filter for skill changes like BatSpd and Barrel% gainers, or Stuff+ and pitch velocity decliners

⚾️Identify xwOBA underperformers and SIERA overachievers, plus more

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Most of the top SIERA underperformers still sport bloated marks, but not all.

Who are you buying?

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers from this week's Performance Intelligence update.

Are you buying Jake Irvin despite the 8.00 ERA...but with a SwStk% and strikeout rate surge over a small sample so far?

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Sample views from this week’s update.

Austin Hays powering up 💪
Kodai Senga bringing the heat 🔥

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Performance Intelligence is now live.

Track real skill changes (pitch velocity, bat speed, Stuff+, etc.) and spot gaps between results and underlying performance (ERA vs xERA, wOBA vs xwOBA, etc.).

Updated weekly. Built for in-season edge.

Get access: https://t.co/tc797r0ZRD

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Performance Intelligence is now live.

Track real skill changes (pitch velocity, bat speed, Stuff+, etc.) and spot gaps between results and underlying performance (ERA vs xERA, wOBA vs xwOBA, etc.).

Updated weekly. Built for in-season edge.

Get access: https://t.co/tc797r0ZRD

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Final Projection Intelligence update is now live.

The edge now shifts from projections → signals.

Performance Intelligence launches Apr 2:

• Skill movement (bat speed, velocity)
• Results vs skills (ERA vs SIERA/xERA, xwOBA gaps)

Early season edges are different.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

baseball

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Projection Intelligence has been updated for this week (batters + pitchers).

One thing that stood out:

Some positions have almost no separation across tiers, while others fall off a cliff quickly.

Which position do you think thins out the fastest in your drafts?

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

The gap between tiers isn’t linear, it’s positional.

Some positions have cliffs. Others have plateaus.

If you’re not measuring that, you’re guessing.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

If a player’s projection jumps just because you moved him from 450 PA to 600 PA…

you don’t have a projection.

You have a playing time guess disguised as analysis.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Learn More:

https://t.co/tc797r0ZRD

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Real example from my Tout Wars AL-Only auction on Saturday.

Kevin McGonigle’s projections had ranged from 9 to 17 HR.

That gap surfaced in the Projection Divergence Engine in ProjectingX IQ and it directly led to me buying him.

Here’s why the projections disagree. 🧵

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

The Projection Divergence Engine didn’t tell me to buy McGonigle.

It showed me where projections disagreed, which forced me to investigate the assumption behind the forecasts.

That investigation led directly to an auction decision.

That’s the idea behind ProjectingX IQ.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

This is what the Engine surfaced (since then, his low-end PA projections have increased, narrowing this range).

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

@MaysCopeland Fair point. Divergence is just one signal - it flags where projections disagree on assumptions.

The other 3 engines help price that risk in drafts.

Then during the season the Performance Intelligence engines track whether those assumptions are actually changing.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Projection Intelligence update is live.

One new signal:

The projections' playing time forecasts disagree whether Kevin McGonigle opens the season as the Tigers' starting SS!

Updated Batter + Pitcher platforms are available to subscribers.

https://t.co/BEGUZLa6oQ

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Consensus projections are comfortable.

But the biggest draft edges often come from the players projection systems can’t agree on.

Disagreement highlights where assumptions differ - and where the market may be overconfident.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

@TheTinDoor Fair point, results ultimately matter.

The AL Tout Wars roster is public now if you want to take a look.

The goal of ProjectingX IQ is improving the framework behind the decisions that build a roster, not generating one “correct” board.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Tout Wars AL auction tomorrow!

Luckily, I'll have ProjectingX IQ to inject some intelligence into my brain.