Mike Podhorzer

Founder @ProjectingXIQ
2015 @FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year, 3x @ToutWars champion, @rotographs contributor, author of Projecting X 2.0.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

With trading season in full swing, it's now cheaper than ever to gain an edge with ProjectingX IQ.

Visit link in bio for more details!

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

The price of ProjectingX IQ has been reduced for the remainder of the season!

⚾️Quickly filter for skill changes like BatSpd and Barrel% gainers, or Stuff+ and pitch velocity decliners

⚾️Identify xwOBA underperformers and SIERA overachievers, plus more

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

You buying any of these starting pitchers?

Matthew Boyd
Jesús Luzardo (window may have closed after last start!)
Mike Burrows
Chris Paddack
Aaron Nola

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Most of the top SIERA underperformers still sport bloated marks, but not all.

Who are you buying?

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

Ildemaro Vargas has a 30% HR/FB after a 6.7% career mark through 2025.

How?

Easy.

Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr., he’s pulling his fly balls (top 3 in FB Pull%) like opposite field got deleted from his swing path.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@GoodFundies Ha, I think I’d give him more than a month of regular season games before evaluating his coaching performance

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t have a power problem.

He has a fly ball direction problem.

MLB HR/FB by Direction:
Pull - 30.7%
Center - 7.8%
Oppo - 3.7%

He’s just not pulling his fly balls.

That’s it.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@NegWAR_PosVibes uhhh, how is this a guide? It tells me nothing. The EU event on May 9 has a webpage with all the details -- embassy, address, description, and accessibility. That's what I'm seeking for the non-EU. Whether it's in an app or a webpage, I don't see this info anywhere.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@TheEventsDC I can't find any information about the Around the World Embassy Tour on May 2 on the Events DC app. Where is it?

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

Who's your favorite breakout candidate from these 5 Stuff+ gainers?

Nice to see Taj Bradley here, though I think it's more about the location & command for him.

Janson Junk is intriguing as his fastball velocity is up and he's throwing an improved change more, but K% still meh.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers from this week's Performance Intelligence update.

Are you buying Jake Irvin despite the 8.00 ERA...but with a SwStk% and strikeout rate surge over a small sample so far?

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

This is the kind of stuff I want to see early in the season.

Who’s actually getting better, not just running hot.

Velocity jumps, bat speed gains, underlying skills vs results…

The signal shows up here before it shows up in your league.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Sample views from this week’s update.

Austin Hays powering up 💪
Kodai Senga bringing the heat 🔥

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

The weekly updated Performance Intelligence Engines are going to provide a massive time-save for my FanGraphs article research!

It'll also make trade negotiations and finding targets far easier with all the data in hand.

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

Final Projection Intelligence update is now live.

The edge now shifts from projections → signals.

Performance Intelligence launches Apr 2:

• Skill movement (bat speed, velocity)
• Results vs skills (ERA vs SIERA/xERA, xwOBA gaps)

Early season edges are different.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

baseball

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@Gregtom24 @Roto_Frank @ToutWars @CBSScottWhite Thanks, will see if my strategy works!

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@stray_mutt Those glasses are definitely worth going the extra buck for!

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

3B is a great example of a position with multiple cliffs this year.

It. Is. Ugly.

So are you targeting one of the elite pair, sticking in the middle, or fishing in the bargain bin with serious profit potential hoping for a breakout?

[ProjectingX IQ @ProjectingXIQ]

The gap between tiers isn’t linear, it’s positional.

Some positions have cliffs. Others have plateaus.

If you’re not measuring that, you’re guessing.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@RobSilver @claywlink Happy to welcome you aboard the McGonigle train!

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@TheTinDoor Also to be clear, I didn’t target McGonigle, nor do I ever target any player. I just shared how I ended up buying him. If he had been nominated earlier and got bid up above my value, he would have joined a competitor’s team.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

If a player’s projection jumps just because you moved him from 450 PA to 600 PA…

you don’t have a projection.

You have a playing time guess disguised as analysis.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@TheTinDoor Fair, that tweet was too absolute.

Playing time assumptions aren’t the problem, blindly accepting them is.

The edge is identifying when they’re wrong and adjusting, like I did with McGonigle.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@FreezeStats Yup, totals always rely on playing time.

The distinction is how much is driven by PA vs skill.

Two players can project the same in totals but be very different bets depending on what’s driving it.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@Smada_PLive Agree, that’s a big edge in DCs.

There’s a difference between “600 PA from role” and “600 PA after risk is baked in.”

That’s why not all 600 PA projections are actually equal.

[Mike Podhorzer @MikePodhorzer]

@zackwaxx Fair, that tweet was a bit too absolute.

Playing time is part of the projection.

The distinction is understanding how much is coming from PA vs skill, instead of just taking the output at face value.