The price of ProjectingX IQ has been reduced for the remainder of the season!
⚾️Quickly filter for skill changes like BatSpd and Barrel% gainers, or Stuff+ and pitch velocity decliners
⚾️Identify xwOBA underperformers and SIERA overachievers, plus more
Ildemaro Vargas has a 30% HR/FB after a 6.7% career mark through 2025.
How?
Easy.
Unlike Fernando Tatis Jr., he’s pulling his fly balls (top 3 in FB Pull%) like opposite field got deleted from his swing path.
Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t have a power problem.
He has a fly ball direction problem.
MLB HR/FB by Direction:
Pull - 30.7%
Center - 7.8%
Oppo - 3.7%
He’s just not pulling his fly balls.
That’s it.
@NegWAR_PosVibes uhhh, how is this a guide? It tells me nothing. The EU event on May 9 has a webpage with all the details -- embassy, address, description, and accessibility. That's what I'm seeking for the non-EU. Whether it's in an app or a webpage, I don't see this info anywhere.
Who's your favorite breakout candidate from these 5 Stuff+ gainers?
Nice to see Taj Bradley here, though I think it's more about the location & command for him.
Janson Junk is intriguing as his fastball velocity is up and he's throwing an improved change more, but K% still meh.
Starting pitcher Stuff+ gainers from this week's Performance Intelligence update.
Are you buying Jake Irvin despite the 8.00 ERA...but with a SwStk% and strikeout rate surge over a small sample so far?
This is the kind of stuff I want to see early in the season.
Who’s actually getting better, not just running hot.
Velocity jumps, bat speed gains, underlying skills vs results…
The signal shows up here before it shows up in your league.
The weekly updated Performance Intelligence Engines are going to provide a massive time-save for my FanGraphs article research!
It'll also make trade negotiations and finding targets far easier with all the data in hand.
Final Projection Intelligence update is now live.
The edge now shifts from projections → signals.
Performance Intelligence launches Apr 2:
• Skill movement (bat speed, velocity)
• Results vs skills (ERA vs SIERA/xERA, xwOBA gaps)
Early season edges are different.
3B is a great example of a position with multiple cliffs this year.
It. Is. Ugly.
So are you targeting one of the elite pair, sticking in the middle, or fishing in the bargain bin with serious profit potential hoping for a breakout?
@TheTinDoor Also to be clear, I didn’t target McGonigle, nor do I ever target any player. I just shared how I ended up buying him. If he had been nominated earlier and got bid up above my value, he would have joined a competitor’s team.
If a player’s projection jumps just because you moved him from 450 PA to 600 PA…
you don’t have a projection.
You have a playing time guess disguised as analysis.
@TheTinDoor Fair, that tweet was too absolute.
Playing time assumptions aren’t the problem, blindly accepting them is.
The edge is identifying when they’re wrong and adjusting, like I did with McGonigle.
@FreezeStats Yup, totals always rely on playing time.
The distinction is how much is driven by PA vs skill.
Two players can project the same in totals but be very different bets depending on what’s driving it.
@Smada_PLive Agree, that’s a big edge in DCs.
There’s a difference between “600 PA from role” and “600 PA after risk is baked in.”
That’s why not all 600 PA projections are actually equal.
@zackwaxx Fair, that tweet was a bit too absolute.
Playing time is part of the projection.
The distinction is understanding how much is coming from PA vs skill, instead of just taking the output at face value.