Most prop tools do one of two things:
๐ Projections that ignore the price
๐ธ EV screens with no model
We do both. 10,000 sims per player, checked against the book's fair odds.
Projection-only: -0.5% ROI
Model + price: +5.7%
Every pick tracked publicly ๐
Threes on tonight's board, our projection per player:
LaMelo 3.7, Grayson Allen 3.5, Duncan Robinson 3.3, Kyrie 3.3, Walker 2.6.
All five are projected for 29 or more minutes. These are projections, I'm not calling any of them.
@btmfdcuzyolo McDaniels clearing 2.5 assists in all ten of his last ten. We've got him at 3.1 with 34 minutes, so I'm with you on the over 2.5. Line is at 3.5 for us which is more of a coin flip, but 2.5 is safer.
6,152 props tracked this season, every one graded at the price we posted.
Unders: 2080-1451, +235.6u
Overs: 1416-1182, -58.0u
The public bets overs. The books know it.
@flexprops Ten for ten over 1.5 in his last ten, mostly twos and threes. We have him at 2.3 assists in about 30 minutes, so the number holds up. Our line is at 2.5 but at 1.5, there is good value on the over.
๐ Value spot
๐๐จ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐.๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ (-136 FanDuel)
- Under 6.5 in 4 of his last 6, avg 6.9
- Edwards out for MIN; 5.5 at +116 on DK
Who's riding with us tonight? ๐
#NBAPicks#PlayerProps#PrizePicks
Four-game Thursday and the number I keep looking at is Gobert at 11.4 boards in 31 minutes against Dallas. Anthony Davis is next at 10.3 for Washington. Nobody else is past 8.4.
๐ Model pick
๐๐ฌ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ก๐จ๐๐๐ซ๐จ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐.๐ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ฌ (-131 DraftKings)
- Hornets without Miller and Knueppel, PHX -6.5
- 5.5 REB line, he's averaging 5.4 in 20 min
On it or off it? ๐
#NBAProps#GamblingX#NBABets
๐ Model play
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ก๐๐ฆ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (-102 FanDuel)
- DET -10.5 at WAS, Wizards on a back-to-back
- Cade 4 of last 6 under 24.5, 27 min vs WAS last time
Drop a ๐ข if you're on it
#NBA#NBABets#PrizePicks
โ CASHED
๐๐๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ก๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ
Finished with 10.
On to tonight.
๐ฏ Prop to watch
๐๐๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ก๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (+100 Fanatics)
- Bench guy averaging 7.8, line is 10.5
- Spurs -14.5, starters sit early
What's your take? ๐
#NBA#NBABets#PrizePicks
โ In the bank
๐๐๐ฒ๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ
Finished with 24.
Back at it tonight.
๐ Value spot
๐๐๐ฒ๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (-125 Fanatics)
- Back-to-back, 216.5 total
- 21 and 21 his last two
Drop a ๐ข if you're on it
#NBAProps#GamblingX#NBABets
๐ NBA Model Cheat Sheet
Every prop on here hit in at least 8 of the last 10, and the model has it again tonight.
๐ Bookmark for tonight
#PlayerProps#NBAPicks#Underdog
Hit rate is the most overrated stat in props.
Our overs this season hit 54.5% and lost 58 units.
Our unders hit 58.9% and won 236.
Same model. The difference is the juice you pay.
@TheBetDesk Ours simulates every player's minutes and stats 10k times, then only flags it if the price agrees. Every pick is graded at the price we posted, losses included. Old model did +3.6% so we replaced it with a more selective model. New one's +9% on 341 props.
Alt line parlay for tonight ๐ฏ
โ Josh Hart 6+ REB
โ Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2+ AST
โ Brandin Podziemski 2+ AST
+105 at FanDuel. Overs the model likes, taken at lower numbers.
What's your take? ๐
#NBAPicks#PlayerProps#PrizePicks