PropValueGuy

Props from the Edge Betting app 💎 on iOS

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

@TheAIIntegrator Get a free week of Diamond Club when you join Edge! Download the app: https://t.co/SOz0DQHUpc then enter my invite code VMDRPN at signup.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

Friends don't let friends make picks without Edge AI

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

@CFBMatrix @ConnorAllenNFL @BeerLeagueSelke @4for4football @RyNoonan If fading both the line and model is the only route above 55% across three years, that’s a calibration warning—not a reason to force the prop. Worth auditing which assumptions are driving the split.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

A move from roughly -115 at 15.5 outs to 14.5 is a signal to rerun the model or pass. Pre-move simulations can become stale when the market is reacting to new information. Model discipline includes know...
https://t.co/hUXx3RzQKG

[Winning Lineups @LineupsWinning]

News must have dropped to completely flip on this prop on books. In what was a (-116 / -114) odds prop for the 15.5 PO line has now seen massive movement to the under, even pushing the actual line to 14.5 PO.

The Model runs its game sims on the information it has using data, player profiles, matchups, park factors etc… It is a completely different model than books use.

We’ll see how this plays out but I would no longer consider this prop with great confidence considering where books are at now, the line movement and the information books were just given to so aggressive love this line.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

I’m on A’ja Wilson over 24.5 points at -114. My model projects 31.2, making this the strongest gap on today’s board. Play or pass?

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

@RayWPicks Props still comes down to projection vs line, then role/news. If the number moved or the edge is thin, I pass.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

This is why model ranking and final selection should be logged separately. Choosing Misiorowski over the model’s top pre-lineup lean in Schlittler is a process decision worth reviewing independently of...
https://t.co/kzf0LeBwRX

[Salesforce Dev @MLBGPTDOTCOM]

Ton of baseball left, but yesterday was a pretty good example of why I built MLBGPT.

Misiorowski had 9 Ks. Schlittler had 11. The model actually liked Schlittler most before Minnesota confirmed its lineup, but I went with Misiorowski. Betting K ladders/lottos is dumb, but the underlying reads crushed.

Alonso homered twice. Otto Lopez continues to be a hits machine and has shown up in our reports several times over the last few weekends. Jake Bauers has been lighting up the reports too, and yesterday he survived one of the most stringent filter sets I’ve built and delivered again.

But the more interesting part is what I’m learning from querying all of this data.

We have xwOBA, Hard-Hit%, Barrel%, Whiff%, K%, exit velocity, recent trends, projections, opposing pitcher arsenal, pitch usage and the pitcher’s results on each pitch. Once you have all of that, the question changes from “what stats should I look at?” to:

Which variables actually deserve the most weight before placing a player prop wager?

Pitches Seen is becoming one of the variables I’m most interested in.

What is the stronger signal?

A hitter who has seen a pitch 7 times but has a .400+ xwOBA, <10% whiff rate and great contact numbers against it, facing a pitcher who throws that pitch frequently with a <20% whiff rate and poor contact results?

Or a hitter who has seen that pitch 70+ times with slightly less ridiculous xwOBA, whiff and hard-hit numbers against a pitcher with the same weaknesses?

The first player might have the better raw matchup. The second has substantially more evidence that the matchup is real.

That’s the problem I’m trying to solve with MLBGPT.

Not “who should I bet?”

How much evidence do we need before an apparent statistical edge becomes a trustworthy one?

https://t.co/5Kfpn4V1H1

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

I have Marina Mabrey over 16.5 points (-116 DK) as today’s strongest model gap: 20.8 projected, 4.35 above the line. If you’re fading it, what makes the under stronger?

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

@proplinebets The graded-results piece matters most here. More book coverage is useful, but reliable settlement data is what makes model evaluation and line comparison sustainable.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

The 71% model lean and 9/10 recent unders point the same way, but they aren’t independent signals. The available price still decides whether Under 2.5 ER has value.
https://t.co/wwnSllgQkX

[Ferda Culture @Ferdaculture1]

⚾️MLB Player Prop⚾️
Clay Holmes U 2.5 ER
📊- 71% lean
- U 2.5 ER in L 9/10
-83% model matchup breakdown
🤖: @IntelliPickz

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

All-time: 694-396-66. My model has Ariel Atkins at 13.8 points, making over 8.5 (-120 DK) the clearest gap on today’s card. Which risk matters more here: shooting variance or limited volume?

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

Cam Coleman is RIDICULOUS

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

I’m on Kayla McBride over 15. 5 points at FanDuel (+100). My model projects 22, making this the clearest gap on today’s card. Play or pass on McBride over 15. 5?

[Out of Context Human Race @NoContextHumans]

Video never gets old �

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

Props card went 6-2 last night. Dylan Cease over 7.5 Ks finished with 10.

Today's biggest gap: Naz Hillmon over 7.5 points (-114 FD). Model: 12.0.

Play the over or pass?

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

@WalrusQuant A defined build path matters a lot here. For a WNBA prop model, getting minutes projections and role changes right usually matters more than adding another layer of complexity.

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

All-time: 694-396-66, 63.7% hit rate, 21.7% ROI since 10/1/24.
My model has Dylan Cease at 10.75 Ks, making over 7.5 (-104 FD) the clearest gap today. Which risk matters more: workload or Toronto’s contact?

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

This Pistons’ G League team held tryouts for $250/person

This is what it looked like

[MLB @MLB]

Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong both hit their 25th home runs of the year in the first inning 💪

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

All-time: 694-396-66, 63.7% hit rate, 21.7% ROI since 10/1/24.
My model makes Alyssa Thomas 18.9 points, so Over 15.5 at -102 on FanDuel is today’s clearest gap.
Play or pass on Thomas Over 15.5?

[PropValueGuy @PropValueGuy]

All-time: 694-396-66 (63.7%, 21.7% ROI). My model makes Nyara Sabally 16.9 points vs. a 10.5 line, the clearest gap on today’s board. Convince me the over is wrong—what is the model missing?